4 th International Evidence Based Policing Conference

1. 4th International Evidence Based Policing Conference Burglary Solvability Factors Gerry Donnellan

2. Background • Felony Investigation Decision Model – Bernard Greenberg • Burglary Investigation Decision Model – John Eck • Coupe and Griffiths, ‘Detecting Residential Burglary’, 1996

3. Burglary Investigation Decision Model • 6 variables • Witness present • Discovered by police • Usable fingerprints • Suspect information • Vehicle description • Response time • 12,000 cases • 85% accuracy • Limitations

4. Aim of Research • Evaluate the reliability of the solvability factors • Identify the most productive variables • Understand the distribution of the variables • Identify additional variables

5. Methodology • 400 random cases – 200 detected • 77 violent cases – 20 detected • 6 Eck variables • 48 additional variables

6. Findings • 323 offenders in the detected cases • 35% of cases had multiple offenders • Significant differences between detected and undetected burglaries • Significant difference presence of DNA between suspect named and suspect described the presence of CCTV delay in reporting • 61% detected cases attended within one hour • Value of property

7. Eck variables for detected and undetected burglaries

8. Additional Variables

9. Revised Model

10. Summary • Arrive promptly • Effective primary investigation • Maximise secondary investigation • Maximise forensic opportunities • Community intelligence • More research

11. Thank You