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T h e C h i n a S u s t a i n a b l e E n e r g y P r o g r a m

Explore the implications of China's rapid energy growth and its impact on global issues such as pollution, emissions, and energy security. Learn about China's energy mix, industry growth, health impacts, and energy diplomacy. Discover strategies for a sustainable energy future and the role of renewable energy.

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T h e C h i n a S u s t a i n a b l e E n e r g y P r o g r a m

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  1. 中国可持续能源项目 T h e C h i n a S u s t a i n a b l e E n e r g y P r o g r a m The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, in partnership with The Energy Foundation Implications of China’s Energy Growth • Michael Wang, Ph.D., • Argonne National Laboratory • Doug Ogden, The Energy • Foundation

  2. The Energy Foundation Toward a Sustainable Energy Future Foundation Partnership

  3. Why Energy? SMOG Percent of emissions due to energy ACID RAIN GLOBAL WARMING NUCLEAR WASTE TOXICS Sources: EPA, DOE

  4. Why Energy: Global Warming Carbon Emissions United States Million Metric Tons China Projected Source: LBNL

  5. Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Why Energy: Chinese Pollution in U.S. • 40% of U.S. mercury pollution originates overseas • China emits 25% of global mercury Source: Harvard; USEPA

  6. China: Coal Dependence Carbon Emissions from Coal Use • China consumes 95% more coal per year than the U.S., and rising. Million metric tons Source: EIA 2004

  7. China: Growing Oil Dependence Oil Use in China • By 2020, China will import 80%of its oil Million barrels per day (mbd) Source: EIA 2004

  8. China’s Energy Mix China 2002 World 2002 Source: IEA, 2004

  9. China’s Energy Growth • GDP: Rising at 9.1 percent • Energy: Rising at 10% • Electricity: Rising at 15.5% • Oil up 18% in 2004 (1/3 US) Source: International Energy Outlook, 2004

  10. Heavy Industry Growth • Industry is 63% of GDP • Raw material sector growing faster than expected • Infrastructure construction priority Refined Copper Iron Ore Aluminum Nickel Platinum

  11. Health Impacts • Air pollution levels exceed WHO standards • China has 16 of the 20 most air polluted cities globally Every year: 500,000 premature deaths 75,155,000 asthma attacks Source: World Bank; World Health Organization

  12. China’s Emissions With Advanced Technology

  13. China’s Energy Investment

  14. 2020 Development Target • Quadruple 2000 GDP (4 x $1.08 trillion) • Increase per capita GDP from $850 in 2000 to $3000 in 2020 • Attain “Three Transcendences”: • Sustainable development • Peaceful rise as a great power • Rule of law; harmonious socialist society

  15. World GDP Thru 2050 28% 15% 4% Source: Keystone India

  16. Population Source: International Energy Outlook, 2004

  17. GDP Per Capita U.S. China Source: CIA World Factbook, 2004

  18. Energy Consumption Per Capita Source: Energy Information Administration, 2002

  19. China’s Energy Intensity

  20. China’s Reach for Oil Security World Crude Oil Flows: 43 million barrels/day (2004) of which 35 million via sea lane “chokepoints”

  21. China’s Oil Diplomacy Diversifying supply relationships Buying equity in oil fields Strengthening diplomatic & trade ties with exporters/rogues Seeking sea lane security Asserting South China Sea territorial claims Building strategic petroleum reserve Source: Foreign Affairs, Sept./Oct. 2005

  22. Implications for the U.S. • Rise of “energy nationalism” • Competition for control of sea lanes • Cooperation with rogue nations (e.g., Iran) • Solution: Actively build cooperative institutions • Invite China’s participation in G-8, IEA joint oil reserves initiative • Actively help China reduce energy demand

  23. Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Potential

  24. Role of Government • Address failure of markets to recognize public impacts of technologies • Penalize externalities, incentivize beneficial technologies • Commercialization policies: guarantee volume, catalyze learning curve

  25. China’s Efficiency Progress

  26. China’s Efficiency Investment

  27. Energy Growth Far Faster Than GDP Since 2001 Lawrence Berkeley National Lab

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