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The Role of Computing in Climate Science Dr. Robert Bishop

The Role of Computing in Climate Science Dr. Robert Bishop. WMO Information System (WIS) Workshop on Information Access Enablers Geneva, Switzerland, 17-18 May 20010. Climate is the thin edge of the wedge!.

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The Role of Computing in Climate Science Dr. Robert Bishop

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  1. The Role of Computing in Climate ScienceDr. Robert Bishop WMO Information System (WIS) Workshop on Information Access Enablers Geneva, Switzerland, 17-18 May 20010

  2. Climate is the thin edge of the wedge!

  3. Icelandic Ash Cloud: Mantle-Crust-Glacier-RiversWeather-Climate-Agriculture-Economy-Society

  4. The Bigger Picture

  5. 21C: Integration vs Dis-Integration The Whole Earth – An Holistic Approach • Seamless • Multi-scale (spatial & temporal) • Multi-science (physical & socio-economic) The New Grand Challenge

  6. We have been treating the sciences as separate stovepipes and silosfor over 200 years! • In Research • In Research Funding • In Publishing • In Conferences • In University Faculties • In Government Departments

  7. 1950 ENIAC Meteorology Simulations

  8. Yokohama Earth SimulatorOpened March 2002, NEC SX-6

  9. Best Dedicated Climate Machines(TAKEN FROM THE NOVEMBER 2009 TOP500 SUPERCOMPUTER SITES)

  10. We need to use ‘best in class’ technology to deal with the complexity of weather, climate, environment and their socio-economic interaction,hence ……

  11. ICES: a peak performance facility • Hardware • Software • Data • Science • People

  12. ICES Top Priorities • Maintain dedicated HPC in the top 5 of machines worldwide • Supply HPC cycles and software engineering support to national and regional Earth & Climate centres worldwide • Enable climate science to reach comparable levels of spatial and temporal resolution as NWP • Evolve open source Earth system models by integrating elements from climate, bio, geo, space & social sciences • Drive breakout hierarchy of nextgen Earth-Climate models • Support training of next generation ‘holistic thinkers’ • Provide info-briefings on Earth & Climate to International Organisations & NGOs

  13. ICES and Disaster Risk Management CLIMATE & WEATHER SOCIAL SYSTEMS • Community Resilience • Adaptation & Mitigation • Planning & Relief Strategies • Precursor Signals ENVIRONMENT SOLAR SYSTEM BIOSPHERE EARTH SYSTEM

  14. ICES and Geoengineering CLIMATE & WEATHER SOCIAL SYSTEMS ENVIRONMENT • Climate Remediation • CO2 Removal • Solar Radiation Management • Unexpected Consequences SOLAR SYSTEM BIOSPHERE EARTH SYSTEM

  15. Proposed ICES Computing Resources Dedicated High Performance Computing - 20 year transition: petaflop(1015)-exaflop(1018)-zettaflop(1021flops) High-resolution 3D interactive immersion & image analysis - auditorium level viewing with remote viewing & remote steering Low cost power availability (nuclear, hydro, solar) Ultra-high-speed networking from ITU Green Computing, Cloud Computing Citizen Science Computing Google Earth, WolframAlpha

  16. HPC Computing Architectures(We need to compute ~ 1000 x real-time) Homogeneous vs heterogeneous Multi-core, CPU-GPU, FPGA, ASICs or full custom Programming languages, software tools & middleware Cluster vs SMP, distributed vs shared memory Power management, flops/watt Silicon-Photonics. Quantum?

  17. Earth Modelling Software • Grid Size • Parameterisation • Algorithm development • Coupling, linkages & feedbacks • Representation of physical processes • Integration of the socio-economic processes • Initial & boundary condition determination • Uncertainty estimates & management • Statistical & ensemble methods • Hierarchy of models • Multi-models • Stochastics • Nextgen

  18. Earth Data Challenges • Data assimilation • Historical data re-analysis • Data access, archiving & meta-data • Data quality control & harmonisation • Data availability (in situ, remote sensing) • Sparse data (Oceans, Africa, Antarctica) • Model output-data validation & verification • Model output-data storage (or re-compute?)

  19. Observation & Data Sources • Airborne & Satellite Remote Sensing: Envisat, MeteoSat, SMOS, GOCE, GOES-R, LandSat, SBIRS • In Situ: AWS, Radar, Lidar, Broadband Seismic • Mobile: Aircraft, Ships, Argo Buoys, Autos? Cell Phones? • Socio-economic: GDP, Land Use, Food, Water Resources, Energy, etc.

  20. Core Actor’s Network • World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) - World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) • Group on Earth Observations (GEO) • European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) • National Meteorology Bureaus • National Geological Surveys • National Climate Centres • Research Universities

  21. Extended Actor’s Network • ESA, NASA, JAXA, EUMETSAT, CGMS • IOC, 21stC-OI, SIO, WHC, JAMSTEC • BGS, BRGM, USGS, ERI • GEOSS, GCOS, GMES • ENES, ACRE, ESFRI • CSIRO, CALIT2, NCAR, COLA • CNRS (CC-IN2P3), PRACE • UK Agencies: DEFRA, DECC • US Agencies: NOAA, NSF, DOE, DOD

  22. ICES Organisation Structure Geneva-based Not-for-profit Foundation Public-Private Partnership Broad Scientific Participation Inter-disciplinary Governance Participation by Int’l Organisations Experts Committee, Ethics Committee

  23. Why Public-Private Partnership? • Fast • Agile • Simple • Flexible • Responsive • Non-political • Independent • New sources of funding

  24. Why Geneva? International city, neutral country, trusted Science literate, educational infrastructure Proximity to global policy bodies: UNEP, WBCSD, IUCN, WWF WHO, UNHCR, ICRC WMO (WCRP, WWRP), GEO WTO, WEF, UNCTAD, ILO, ITU, EBU Partnerships: CERN, ETH, Canton Universities

  25. ICES Funding PHASE 1 (2010~2015) $350M from sources: 1/2 public, 1/2 private - overflow capacity for national and regional centres - development of nextgen integrated climate/Earth models PHASE 2 (2016~2020) $450Mfrom sources: 1/3 public, 1/3 private, and 1/3 products and services, such as: - test bed for large scale construction projects - disaster risk management - industry specific services - policy-making support - decision support - ‘what if’ scenarios - geoengineering

  26. ICES Foundation Members Board members: Bob Bishop President, André Kaplun Secretary, Julien Pitton Treasurer Bankers: UBS Auditors: PricewaterhouseCoopers Expert Committee: Dr. Ghassem Asrar Director, World Climate Research Programme, WMO Prof. Martin Beniston Chair for Climate Research, University of Geneva Director, Institute for Environmental Sciences Prof. Marc Parlange Dean of the School of Architecture, Civil & Environmental Eng. Ecole Polytechnique Federal Lausanne Dr. Michael Rast Head of Programme Planning Office Directorate of Earth Observation Programmes European Space Agency Ethics Committee: tba

  27. Helping guide the successful transformation of human society in an era of rapid climate change and frequent natural disasters.

  28. Recent Major Natural Disasters

  29. The Father of Modern Meteorology

  30. Before the Age of Computing In 1922, Lewis Fry Richardson, a British mathematician and meteorologist, proposed an immersive giant globe to numerically forecast weather. This “factory” would employ 64,000 human computers to sit in tiers around the interior circumference of a giant globe.

  31. ICES and Society CLIMATE & WEATHER SOCIAL SYSTEMS • Research • Integration • Development • Discovery & Innovation • Communications • Teaching • Training ENVIRONMENT SOLAR SYSTEM BIOSPHERE EARTH SYSTEM

  32. ICES in a Nutshell • Development of a transformative meta-science that integrates climate, weather, environmental, geo, bio, & socio-economic sciences • Next-generation modelling and simulation techniques • Support for national & regional climate centres • Teaching, training, capacity building • Decision support, communications • Dedicated supercomputing • Global networking • Visual intensity ~200 professionals including seconded experts

  33. from ECMWF Evolution of Forecasting Accuracy

  34. Weather & Climate Communities(A Convergence of Methodologies) • Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP): National Bureaus of Meteorology today: 3~5 days ECMWF today: 5~10 days Future Goal: increased accuracy, and on to monthly & seasonal level • Climate modelling: WCRP today: 100~1000 years Future Goal : increased accuracy, and on to decadal & annual level • The 10-year Challenge: Seasonal to inter-annual predictions Global to regional to local forecasting Coarse-grain to fine-grain spatial resolution Extreme weather early warning

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