The Real Majors

1. The Real Majors Ray H. Killam, CFSP, CFC Amgraf, Inc. April 13, 2002

2. What Defines a “Major?” • Industry • Size (Revenues)? • Channel? • Profitability? • Leadership? • Longevity?

3. Categories of Companies • Major Directs • Regional Directs • Independents • Distributors • Specialty • Specialized Channels • Franchises • Technology

4. The “Forms” Industry • Declining profits • Consolidation • Exit strategies • Diversification • Technological changes • Changing industry Trade Associations

5. History of Change • Explosive growth- Mainframe computing • Introduction of “APA” printers • Sheet printing • Roll processing • Xerox Docutech • Digital color • Internet and WWW • eCommerce

6. So, Who Are The Real Majors? • Traditional Players • Technology Players • Digital Players • Non-Traditional Players

7. Where’s The Leadership? • Technology • Forms Innovation • Business Solution Innovation • eCommerce Innovation

8. The Forms Conundrum • Two camps: • CAS • SVAM • The “non-technical, technical” product • Automated layout sheet • Draw wizards • Workflow wizards • Mapping wizards • Management tools

9. Consider Year “X” Scenario • There are many possible outcomes, but here is one that has “reasonable probability”

10. Future Print Procurement Model • Production of most print products will be digital • Requisitions will be Internet-based • Digital asset management will be essential • Inventories of printed products will become obsolete

11. Future Print Production Model • Offset production will become irrelevant • Requisition systems will, in reality, become production order systems • The real opportunity will be in service, not print • Premium will be on distribution • Eforms and Iforms will coexist with paper forms

12. Digital Production • Technology continues to improve • Costs continue to decline • Access to users continues to improve • Requirements continue to tighten • Faster • More flexible • Lower costs • Eliminate obsolescence

13. Digital Production • Run lengths can be very small • Production can occur when each user requisitions • Producing at requisition means inventory can be eliminated • Elimination of inventory means no obsolescence risk or cost

14. Enablers • Digital asset management will continue to improve giving immediate access to file worldwide • Document management will be vital • New digital technologies will emerge, such as electro coagulation? • Order management systems will be developed

15. Predictions • Offset production facilities will become increasingly specialized and eventually irrelevant • Requisition systems will become, in reality, production order systems • Pre-press systems will become pre-flight systems and will be pushed to the user level

16. Predictions • Print demand will grow - users want it • Bindery requirements will be very important, but options will tend to standardize • For print providers, the real sale will be in the service not the product • Product production will be a commodity

17. Another Prediction • Professional print manufacturers will appear as a “printer device” icon on PCs to output digital files directly to the manufacturer. • This service will include file pre-flighting, print and bindery order forms, and payment capabilities.

18. Recommendations • Embrace technology in your business. Learn how to use it yourself. • Look for opportunities to sell technology-based solutions to your customers. • Develop business models for revenue and profit. • Keep your company firmly planted in reality while moving toward the future. Don’t go to the bleeding edge. • Get even closer to your customers.

19. Who Will The “Majors” Be? • Change Oriented • Technology Competent • Customer Focused • Financially Strong • Innovative