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Climate-Air Quality: Linkages and OAQPS Strategy

Climate-Air Quality: Linkages and OAQPS Strategy. National Tribal Forum April 2007. Presentation Overview. Climate-Air Quality Linkages Key terms and definitions How the global climate impacts air quality How air pollution impacts regional climate OAQPS Climate-Air Quality Strategy

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Climate-Air Quality: Linkages and OAQPS Strategy

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  1. Climate-Air Quality: Linkages and OAQPS Strategy National Tribal Forum April 2007

  2. Presentation Overview • Climate-Air Quality Linkages • Key terms and definitions • How the global climate impacts air quality • How air pollution impacts regional climate • OAQPS Climate-Air Quality Strategy • Global climate impacts on U.S. air quality • Air pollution impacts on U.S. regional climate • Climate-related impacts of OAQPS programs

  3. OAQPS PrioritiesWhere Climate and Air Quality Converge • Global climate impacts on U.S. air quality • For example increasing temperature may affect concentrations of ozone • Air pollution impacts on U.S. regional climate • Aerosols may affect precipitation patterns • Climate-related impacts of OAQPS programs • Possible energy penalties of control technologies

  4. Global climate impacts on U.S. air quality • Preliminary policy-relevant findings reported in Feb. 2007, amid large uncertainties, suggest: • Climate change makes it harder to attain ozone NAAQS: • Increased temperature is associated with increases ozone • More biogenic emissions, faster reaction rates, and increased frequency and duration of stagnation events • Potential for 10% climate penalty • Climate change has mixed impacts for PM NAAQS and Visibility • In the West, more droughts and wildfires increase PM • In other areas more precipitation decreases PM • For many areas there may be a mix of PM benefits and disbenefits; the net impact of climate on PM is not clear. • Continuing work to reduce uncertainties • 2007/2010 Assessments • STAR grant process Green = Current Activities

  5. Modeling: Shows a 20% decrease in cold fronts in future summers (2000-2050). Evolution of a typical pollution episode over 6 days. Box 1: Weak winds as pollution builds Implication: Higher ozone concentrations from increases in duration and severity of summer episodes. Box 4: Stronger winds with cold front from Canada bring cleaner air [Adapted from Loretta Mickley, Harvard]

  6. Is there a Climate Change Penalty?

  7. Air pollution impacts on regional climate • Effects of existing PM policies and strategies • Light/energy absorbing characteristics of PM • Precipitation effects, as well as warming and cooling • Enhance understanding of direct and indirect aerosol effects • Next generation models to capture climate system feedbacks and complexities • Characterize and minimize uncertainties • Impacts from long range transport • Ozone • Contributor to Arctic warming • Quantify climate benefits of domestic ozone reductions Green = Current ActivitiesYellow = Future Opportunities

  8. Wildfire and climate Climate Change Air Quality Visibility OC / BC aerosols GHGs CO Longer fire seasons, more fires…. Less fires….. Increasing Temperature Increasing Rainfall [From Spracklen at 2006 AGU]

  9. Air pollution impacts on regional climate • Tropospheric ozone is the 3rd most important Greenhouse Gas • Not covered by Kyoto since ozone is a short-lived GHG. • PM may have offset most of the GHG warming • Modeling studies suggest that PM may have offset as much as 50 to 75 percent of the greenhouse gas forcing (NAS 10-05). • PM directly scatters and absorbs radiation; PM also interacts with clouds in several ways that can have indirect effects on climate. • The indirect effects have a low level of scientific understanding. • PM also influences cloud lifetime and precipitation.

  10. From the IPCC Summary for Policy Makers (2007) CO2: + 1.66 Ozone: + 0.35 PM (ambient): - 0.5 PM (cloud effect): - 0.7 Note: PM effects have a low level of scientific understanding

  11. PM Affects Clouds PM affects solar radiation:smaller cloud droplets reflect more and have a longer life.

  12. PM Affects Rainfall: Smaller cloud droplets can decrease precipitation efficiency

  13. Climate Related Impacts of OAQPS Programs • Investigate unintended consequences of OAQPS programs • Either positive or negative • Past Implementation rules and policies • Future rules and policies • NAAQS reviews, secondary standards • Modeling guidelines Green = Current ActivitiesYellow = Future Opportunities

  14. Cross-Cutting Activities • Populate existing analytical tools to be “climate capable” (e.g., Control Strategy Tool - CoST) • Communicate • Explain complex climate-air quality linkages emerging from CCSP, GCAQ, and IPCC. • Internally and externally re: climate – air quality activities • Collaborate with OAR, ORD, Regions, States, RPOs, NASA, NOAA, and DOE • Integrate with other OAQPS programs and Initiatives

  15. Summary • OAQPS has focused our niche to where climate and air quality converge • Activities designed to further three priority areas AND meet domestic air quality objectives • Our strategy is tied to the science and will evolve as the science evolves

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