ClimAfrica - Climate predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: Impact and adaptation

1. WP6 – Case Studies Characterize the environmental and socio-economic conditions of 9 different Sub-Saharan African regions distributed along a wide climate gradient (Ghana, Burkina Faso, Togo, Malawi, Republic of Congo, Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia and Tanzania). The studies carried out in these regions will provide field data to other work packages for empirical model development and mechanistic model parametrization. In addition, the synergies developed with the existing actors (managers and policy-makers, NGO’s, local farmer’s organizations, women’s associations, etc.) during these studies will allow to test and validate both the individual model outputs and the Medium Term Warning System in these regions GIS/RS -R- -R- ENV/SD C D Consultancy Research ERPINED Recent trends in the water cycle of Africa WP1 – Past Climate Variability Collection and synthesis of various data streams that diagnose the variability of the climate, in particular the water cycle, and the productivity of ecosystems in the past decades. The data streams range from ground based observations and satellite remote sensing to model simulations. WP1 aims at providing consolidated data to other WPs in ClimAfrica, and at analyzing the interactions between climate variability, water availability, and ecosystem productivity of Sub-Saharan Africa. Partnersfromleftto right : CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici ScarlULUND - LundsUniversitetCEA - Commissariat à l'ÉnergieAtomiqueMPG - Max PlanckGesellschaftzurFoerderungderWissenschaften E.V. VUA - VerenigingvoorChristelijkHogerOnderwijsWetenschappelijkOnderzoek en PatientezorgCTFC - CentreTecnologicForestal de Catalunya PIK - Potsdam InstituteforClimate Impact ResearchCIRAD - Centre de Cooperation International en rechercheAgronomique pour le DeveloppementFAO-GTOS - Food and AgricultureOrganisationof the UnitedNations FAO SOW-VU - StichtingOnderzoekWereldvoedselvoorzieningvan de VrijeUniversiteitUR2PI - Unitè de Recherchesur la ProductivitédesPlantationsIndustriellesUCT - Universityof Cape Town BCA - Universityof Malawi LBEV - Universityof Lomé ARC - AgriculturalResearch Corporation ICPAC - IgadCentreforClimatePrediction and ApplicationCSIR-CRI - CouncilforScientific and Industrial Research - CropsResearchInstituteCERPINEDD - CerpineddCentre d'Étude de Rechercheet de Production en Information pour l'Environnementet le DeveloppementDurable WP3 – Analysis of climate impacts on key ecosystem services (water-agric.) Quantify the sensitivity of vegetation productivity and water resources to seasonal, interannual and decadal variability in weather and climate, using impact models on agriculture and water ERA Interim ClimAfrica - Climate predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: Impact and adaptation S. Materia1, R.Valentini2, A.Bombelli2, E.Grieco2 Centro Euro Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) 1CMCC - Climate Service (SERC) stefano.materia@cmcc.it 2 CMCC – ClimateChangeImpacts on agriculture, forests and naturalecosystems (IAFENT) Climate Change Land Use Change CO2 emissions Identify tradeoffs and areas of risk and vulnerability related to: water related hazards agricultural and pastoral performance soil degradation …using an agroDVM climate simulation data from WP2; information on past yield and water resources from WP1 and WP6) CMCC-SPS Tchizalamou site, Congo Crop Model The African Context Africa is probably the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability, because of the combination of its low adaptive capacity with particular eco-climatic and socio-economic conditions (i.e. sea level rise, flooding, drought, desertification, land degradation, poverty, conflicts, migration, urbanization, population growth, diseases, etc.). African population mostly depend on the rural sector based on rain fed agriculture. Thus food production depends directly on climate making both the economy and livelihood significantly at risk by climate change. Cropyield Wateruse ClimAfrica Rationale ClimAfrica is conceived to respond to the urgent need for the most appropriate and up-to-date tools to better understand and predict climate change in Africa, assess its impact on African ecosystems and population, and develop suited adaptation strategies. ClimAfrica Work Plan The work is organized in eight complementary work-packages: WP1: Past climate variability WP2: Modelling seasonal to decadal climate predictions WP3: Climate impacts WP4: Medium-term warning system, vulnerability, adaptation WP5: Socio-economic implications WP6: Case studies in Africa WP7: Project Management WP8: Dissemination ClimAfrica Objectives 1- Develop improved climate predictions on seasonal to decadal climatic scales, especially relevant to Sub-Saharan Africa 2- Assess climate impacts in key sectors of Sub-Saharan Africa livelihood and economy, especially water resources and agriculture 3- Evaluate the vulnerability of ecosystems and civil population to inter-annual variations and longer trends (10 years) in climate 4- Suggest and analyse new suited adaptation strategies 5- Develop a new concept of medium term monitoring and forecasting warning system (for food security, risk management, civil protection) 6- Analyse the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture and water resources in Sub-Saharan Africa and the cost-effectiveness of potential adaptation measures. • WP2 - CMCC seasonal forecast and decadal prediction system • Seasonal retrospective forecast for 22 years (1989-2010). Four six-month-forecasts per year, start dates 1st Feb, 1st May, 1st Aug, 1st Nov. • Decadal predictions. Twenty-year-simulations, start dates 1990-1995-2000-2005-2010, November 1st. • Simulations are performed by means of a global climate model initialized with the best observational products of ocean, land and atmosphere • Outputs provided: • surface temperature • precipitation • heat fluxes • winds • etc. Summeranomaly of Monsoon windssimulated by the seasonalpredictionsystem (CMCC-SPS, start date May 1st) and observed by ERAInterim, in the area depictedabove. WP4 – Medium-term of Forecasting food and water vulnerabilities and recommending relevant adaptation measures Establish a monitoring and forecasting warning system (based on ClimAfrica data) that produces prospective analyses about food insecurity and water crisis for the next 10 years.Integrate and harmonize ClimAfrica data with existing data and information to be used as inputs to develop improved vulnerability assessment and optimal adaptation options. - Natural Resources and Food Security – Systems at Risk (NaF-SAR) Integrate and harmonize ClimAfrica data with existing data and information to be used as inputs to develop improved vulnerability assessment and optimal adaptation options. A Risk framework is being used to provide a strategic context for the data and tools generated. The framework consists of 4 key stages: 1- Physiographic data related to hazard or environmental pressure; 2- Socio-economic data (people) 3- Risk assessment hot spotting based on (1) & (2) and the development of scenarios 4- Decision support WP5 – Socio-economic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation measures in SSA Economic assessment of agriculture and water sector based on a Computable General Equilibrium analysis (ICES) to produce the “inaction” and the adaptation scenarios, for direct climate change impacts on agricultural activity and on the direct cost and effectiveness of adaptation strategies. Moreover, the spatially explicit and dynamic economic modelling of vulnerability will have to accommodate bio-physical vulnerabilities. Project Partnership The ClimAfrica consortium is formed by 18 institutions, 9 from Europe, 8 from Africa, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). African countries directly involved are: Burkina Faso, Congo, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, Sudan and Togo. Expected Results 1) improved climate predictions over Africa 2) evaluation of climate impacts on water resources and agriculture 3) new adaptation strategies suited for Africa 4) assessment of economic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation 5) an operational medium term monitoring and forecasting warning system CONTACTS - CLIMAFRICA COORDINATION OFFICE: Riccardo Valentini (project coordinator and DirectorofDivisionofClimateChangeImpacts on agriculture, forests and naturalecosystems – IAFENT, rik@unitus.it ) Antonio Bombelli (project manager, antonio.bombelli@cmcc.it ) Elisa Grieco ( elisa.grieco@unitus.it ) WebSite: www.climafrica.netwww.cmcc.it