Outline

1. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On Training WorkshopImpact, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessmentfor the Agriculture Sector

2. Outline Climate change, agriculture and food security Methods, tools, and datasets Practical applications Integrated assessments

3. Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security • Climate change is one stress among many affecting agriculture and the population that depends on it

4. Economic, social, demographic, land use changes Climate change Mozambique, floods Social vulnerability Multiple Interactions, Vulnerability, and Adaptation Systems and social groups that needs to adapt

5. Social Vulnerability • “Starvation is the characteristic of some people not having enough food to eat. It is not the characteristic of there being not enough food to eat. While the later can cause the former, it is but one of many possible causes.”

6. Multiple Interactions, Stakeholders Define Adaptation Policy makers Scientists Civil stake-holders

7. Multiple Interactions • Climate change is one stress among many now affecting agriculture and the population that depends on it • Integration of results is essential to formulate assessments relevant to policy • Potentialfutureconsequencesdependon: • The region and the agricultural system [Where?] • The magnitude [How much? Scenarios are important.] • The socioeconomic response [What happens in response to change? Adaptive capacity (internal adaptation) and planned adaptation.]

8. Cassava production, Mozambique Coffee production, Kenya Vegetable production, Egypt Where? Systems and Social Groups

9. How Much? Climate and SRES Scenarios Had CM2 model, 2050s Temperature change Precipitation change

10. What Happens in Response to Change? • Adaptive capacity (internal adaptation) • Planned adaptation

11. Climate Change Affects Crop Production • Changes in biophysical conditions • Changes in socioeconomic conditions in response to changes in crop productivity (farmers’ income; markets and prices; poverty; malnutrition and risk of hunger; migration)

12. 2020s 2050s 2080s Yield Change (%) -30 -20 -10 -5 -2.5 0 2.5 5 10 20 30 40 How Might Global Climate Change Affect Food Production? Percentage change in average crop yields for the Hadley Center global climate change scenario (HadCM2). Direct physiological effects of CO2 and crop adaptation are taken into account. Crops modeled are wheat, maize, and rice. Source: NASA/GISS; Rosenzweig and Iglesias, 1994.

13. Limits to Adaptation • Technological limits (e.g., crop tolerance to water-logging or high temperature; water reutilization) • Social limits (e.g., acceptance of biotechnology) • Political limits (e.g., rural population stabilization may not be optimal land use planning) • Cultural limits (e.g., acceptance of water price and tariffs)

14. Developed-Developing Country Differences • Potential change (%) in national cereal yields for the 2080s (compared with 1990) using the HadCM3 GCM and SRES scenarios (Parry et al., 2004)

15. Additional People at Risk of Hunger Parry et al., 2004

16. Additional People at Risk of Hunger (continued) • Overall, the potential for additional people with risk of hunger is greater with the “unstabilized” scenario, although there are decadal variations • In all decades, the “unstabilized” scenario is the warmest • In the 2020s, the warming is beneficial for aggregated crop production • In the 2080s, the warming exceeds the threshold of optimal crop tolerance in many low latitude regions with more people at risk

17. Additional population under extreme stress of water shortage 120 Population (millions) 80 40 0 2020 2050 2080 Interaction and Integration: Water

18. Conclusions • Although global production appears stable . . . • . . . regional differences in crop production are likely to grow stronger through time, leading to a significant polarization of effects . . . • . . . with substantial increases in prices and risk of hunger amongst the poorer nations • Most serious effects are at the margins (vulnerable regions and groups)

19. Methods, Tools, and Datasets • The framework • The choice of the research methods and tools • Demand-driven methods: responding to stakeholders • Key characteristics, strengths, weaknesses • Examples • Datasets: sources, scales, reliability

20. Frameworks • Adaptation Policy Framework (APF), US Country Studies, IPCC, seven steps • All have the essential common elements • Problem definition • Selection and testing of methods • Application of scenarios (climate and socioeconomic) • Evaluation of vulnerability and adaptation • The studies may want to use a framework as guidance or draw from the best elements of all of them

21. Demand-Driven Methods • Need quantitative estimates • Models are assisting tools • Surveys are assisting tools for designing adaptation options • Key variables for agronomic and socioeconomic studies: crop production, land suitability, water availability, farm income, …

22. Quantitative Methods and Tools • Experimental • Analogues (spatial and temporal) • Production functions (statistically derived) • Agroclimatic indices • Crop simulation models (generic and crop-specific) • Economic models (farm, national, and regional) – Provide results that are relevant to policy • Social analysis tools (surveys and interviews) – Allow the direct input of stakeholders (demand-driven science), provide expert judgment • Integrators: GIS

23. http://www.whitehouse.gov/media/gif/Figure4.gif Experimental: Effect of Increased C02 Near Phoenix, Arizona, scientists measure the growth of wheat surrounded by elevated levels of atmospheric CO2. The study, called Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE), is to measure CO2 effects on plants. It is the largest experiment of this type ever undertaken. http://www.ars.usda.gov

24. Experimental Example: growth chambers, experimental fields.

25. Analogues: Drought, Floods Africa vegetation health (VT - index) Vegetation health: Red – stressed, Green – fair, Blue – favorable Source: NOAA/NESDIS

26. Analogues: Drought

27. Analogues (space and time) Example: existing climate in another area or in previous time

28. Production Functions Statistically derived functions (Almeria – Wheat) Yield Irrigation demand Iglesias et al., 1999

29. Production Functions Example: Derived with empirical data.

30. Agroclimatic Indices Length of the growing periods (reference climate, 1961-1990). IIASA-FAO, AEZ

31. Agroclimatic Indices Example: FAO, etc.

32. Based on Understanding of plants, soil, weather, management Calculate Water Growth, yield, fertilizer & water requirements, etc Carbon Require Information (inputs): weather, management, etc Nitrogen Crop Models

33. Models – Advantages • Models are assisting tools, stakeholder interaction is essential • Models allow to ask “what if” questions, the relative benefit of alternative management can be highlighted: • Improve planning and decision making • Assist in applying lessons learned to policy issues • Models permit integration across scales, sectors, and users

34. Models – Limitations • Models need to be calibrated and validated to represent reality • Models need data and technical expertise • Models alone do not provide an answer, stakeholder interaction is essential

35. Crop Models Example: CROPWAT, CERES, SOYGRO, APSIM, WOFOST, etc.

36. Economic Models • Consider both producers and consumers of agricultural goods (supply and demand) • Economic measures of interest include: • How do prices respond to production amounts? • How is income maximized with different production and consumption opportunities?

37. Economic Models (continued) • Microeconomic: Farm • Macroeconomic: Regional economies • All: Crop yield is a primary input (demand is the other primary input) • Economic models should be built bottom-up

38. Farm Models – Differences

39. Agricultural Trade Models Parry et al., 1999.

40. Social Sciences Tools • Surveys and interviews • Allow the direct input of stakeholders (demand-driven science), provide expert judgment in a rigorous way

41. Surveys and Interviews • Development of adaptation options with stakeholders

42. Surveys to StakeholdersDesigning Adaptation Options

43. Economic and Social Tools Examples: Farm, econometric, I/O, national economies, BLS, …

44. Integrators: GIS

45. Integrators: GIS Example: …. All possible applications ….

46. Conclusions • The merits of each approach vary according to the level of impact being studied, and they may frequently be mutually supportive • For example, simple agroclimatic indices often provide the necessary information on how crops respond to varying rainfall and temperature in wide geographical areas; crop-specific models are use to test alternative management that can in turn be used as a component for an economic model that analyses regional vulnerability or national adaptation strategies • Therefore, a mix of approaches is often the most rewarding

47. Datasets • Data are required data to define climatic, nonclimatic environmental, and socioeconomic baselines and scenarios • Data are limited • Discussion on supporting databases and data sources

48. IPCC Working Group 1: “A Collective Picture of a Warming World” Source of data: GISS/NASA

49. Climate

50. FAOCLIM