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Fossil Future

Fossil Future World Energy C onsumption and the E uropean E nergy S ecurity in the Next Twenty Years. Matteo Verda, Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale (ISPI) – Milano. Guest Lecture Series of the School of International Studies Università di Trento – 4 Marzo 2013.

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Fossil Future

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  1. Fossil Future World Energy Consumption and the European Energy Security in the Next Twenty Years Matteo Verda, Istituto per gliStudidiPoliticaInternazionale (ISPI) – Milano Guest Lecture Series of the School of International StudiesUniversitàdi Trento – 4 Marzo 2013

  2. What’s energy? • Energy is… • …the capacity of a system to do work • …an input for any economic activity • …the sources we use • …an issue among other issues Fossil Future – Introduction to the issue

  3. Energy and economic growth World total European Union GDP GDP PEC PEC Gross domestic product (GDP) and primary energy consumptions (PEC) trends (1979 = 100). Fossil Future – Introduction to the issue Sources: IMF, online database and BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2013

  4. Primary energy consumption – World Fossil fuels account for 82% (10.668 Mtoe) of World total primary energy consumption (2011). Fossil Future – Energy consumption and mix Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013

  5. Primary energy consumption – Major economies 2.743 Mtoe – 88% 2.189 Mtoe – 84% 1.659 Mtoe – 75% 750 Mtoe – 72% 718 Mtoe – 91% 461 Mtoe – 90% Fossil Future – Energy consumption and mix Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013 (2011)

  6. Primary energy consumption – Breakdown Energy mix breakdown: China, USA and EU (Mtoe). Fossil Future – Energy consumption and mix Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013 (2011)

  7. EU energy policy: targets • 2020 targets • 20% share of energy from renewable sources (national) • 20% reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels • 2030 targets (proposed) • 27% share of energy from renewable sources (EU level) • 40% reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels Fossil Future – The EU’s place in the World

  8. EU’s share of World total consumption – Breakdown Note: EU is the largest economy in the World (17,3 T$ - 23%), preceding the US (16,7 T$ - 22%) and China (8,9 T$ - 12%) (2013, IMF). Fossil Future – The EU’s place in the World Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013 (2011)

  9. EU and World energy consumption: forecasts In 2030, fossil fuels are bound to account for two third of the EU energy consumption and for more that three quarters of the World total energy consumption. Fossil Future – The EU’s place in the World Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013

  10. EU’s share of World total consumption: 2030 forecasts Variation 2011-2030 • 4 p.p. • 4 p.p. • 3 p.p. • 15 p.p. • 2 p.p. • 5 p.p. • 2 p.p. • 4 p.p. Fossil Future – The EU’s place in the World Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013

  11. EU energy policy: the carbon issue and the European targets • Carbon issue • Supposed climate change • Supposed causation link between carbon emissions and climate change • Action pattern: reduction of carbon emissions • European targets • 2020 : 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels • 2030 : 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels Fossil Future – The carbon issue

  12. EU emissions and future targets EuropeanUnion World total EU and World carbon emissions: current levels and forecasted trends (Mt CO2). Fossil Future – The carbon issue Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013

  13. EU’s share of World carbon emissions: forecasts EU’s share of carbon emissions: current levels and forecasted trends (Mt CO2). Fossil Future – The carbon issue Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013

  14. EU carbon emissions vs. major economies emissions EU’s share of carbon emissions compared with other main economies (Mt CO2). Fossil Future – The carbon issue Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013

  15. Carbon emissions change (2011-2030): EU vs. major economies Expected emissions change (Mt CO2). Fossil Future – The carbon issue Source: EIA, World Energy Outlook 2013

  16. Reduction vs. mitigation Mitigation Mitigation is the effort to reduce loss of life and property by lessening the impact of disasters. Mitigation is taking action now—before the next disaster—to reduce human and financial consequences later. Reduction Reduction is the effort to act now on the causal factors in order to reduc e a probable outcome in the future. Fossil Future – The carbon issue

  17. Thank you! Contacts Matteo Verda,Istituto per gliStudidiPoliticaInternazionale (ISPI), Milano mail:matteo.verda@unipv.it blog: www.sicurezzaenergetica.it Twitter: @matteoverda Linkedin:Linkedin/in/matteoverda

  18. Addendum – Ukraine

  19. Russia export routes and Ukrainian supply (approx.) In 2013, RussianexportstoCentral and WesterEuropeamountedto 153 Gmc/c. Addendum – Ukrainian crisis Source: BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2013

  20. European countries vulnerability Addendum – Ukrainian crisis Sources: BP and Eurogas

  21. Italy – Diversification of the pipeline system

  22. Italy – Structurally and seasonally low demand winter imports production summer Italian natural gas demand is structurally and seasonally low (Bcm). Addendum – Ukrainian crisis Sources: SnamRete Gas and Ministerodellosviluppoeconomico

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