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MPR October 211009

MPR October 211009. Figure 1.1. Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages. Source: The Riksbank. Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Figure 1.2. GDP with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank.

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MPR October 211009

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  1. MPR October211009

  2. Figure 1.1. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  3. Figure 1.2. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  4. Figure 1.3. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  5. Figure 1.4. CPIF with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  6. Figure 1.5. GDP-growth abroadAnnual percentage change Sources: IMF and the Riksbank Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  7. Figure 1.6. Difference between interbank rates and government bond rates (TED spread)Basis points Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

  8. Figure 1.7. Difference between intebank rates and expected monetary policy (Basis spread)Basis points Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

  9. Figure 1.8. Stock market movementsIndex, 04.01.99 = 100 Source: Reuters EcoWin

  10. Figure 1.9. Stock market implied volatilityPer cent Sources: Chicago Board Option Exchange, Reuters EcoWin and STOXX Limited

  11. Figure 1.10. Consumer confidence in Sweden, the euro area and the USANet figures and index, 1985 = 100 Sources: The Conference Board, European Commission and National Institute of Economic Research

  12. Figure 1.11. Households’ net wealth and saving ratio in the USAPercentage of disposable income Sources: Federal Reserve and Department of Commerce Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  13. Figure 1.12. GDP for the USA and the euro areaQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank

  14. Figure 1.13. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 18.11.92 = 100 Source: The Riksbank

  15. Figure 1.14. Comparison of recovery in Sweden, the euro area and USAGDP-level, index 2007 quarter 4 = 100 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank.

  16. Figure 1.15. Comparison of recovery following various recessions, GDP SwedenIndex in the quarter preceding the beginning of the recession = 100 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  17. Figure 1.16. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  18. Figure 1.17. Households’ consumption, disposable incomes and saving ratio Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  19. Figure 1.18. Confidence indicator and saving ratio for householdsNet figures and per cent Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

  20. Figure 1.19. Swedish exports and world market for Swedish exportsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Dots represent the Riksbank's forecast for the whole year.

  21. Figure 1.20. Gross fixed capital formationQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  22. Figure 1.21. Labour force and number of employedThousands, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  23. Figure 1.22. Employment rateEmployment as a percentage of the population, 16-64 year, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  24. Figure 1.23. UnemployedPercentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  25. Figure 1.24. Actual and trend productivity growth in the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  26. Figure 1.25. Estimated gapsPercentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  27. Figure 1.26. Nominal wages Annual percentage change Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  28. Figure 1.27. Unit labour costs for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, fixed prices and per cent of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  29. Figure 1.28. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  30. Figure 1.29. CPIF excluding energy and unit labour costsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  31. Figure 1.30. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

  32. Figure 1.31. HICP in Sweden and in the euro areaAnnual percentage change Sources: Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  33. Figure 1.32. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  34. Figure 1.33. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

  35. Figure 1.34. CPIFAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  36. Figure 2.1. GDP abroadTCW-weighted, quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms Sources: National sources and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  37. Figure 2.2. Labour market gap (hours worked)Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  38. Figure 2.3. CPIFAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  39. Figure 2.4. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  40. Figure 2.5. GDPQuarterly averages in per cent calculated in annualised terms Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  41. Figure 2.6. GDPQuarterly averages in per cent calculated in annualised terms Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  42. Figure 2.7. CPIFAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  43. Figure 2.8. Labour market gap (hours worked)Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  44. Figure 2.9. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  45. Figure 2.10. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  46. Figure 2.11. GDPQuarterly averages in per cent calculated in annualised terms Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  47. Figure 2.12. Production gapPercentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  48. Figure 2.13. Labour market gap (hours worked)Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  49. Figure 2.14. CPIFAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  50. Figure 3.1. Long-term interest ratesPer cent Source: Reuters EcoWin Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.

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