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Kenya Constitution Referendum 2010: Public Opinion Insights

This report presents data on Kenya's new constitution through the perspectives of adults aged 18 and above. Findings cover awareness levels, influential factors, support for the draft constitution, views on Kadhi courts, Christian leaders' opinions, voting intentions in the referendum, and reasons for undecided stances. Methodologically, the survey employed Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) with a sample size of 2,003 respondents. The margin of error was +/- 2.2% at the 95% confidence level. Data collection took place between April 21st-23rd, 2010. Overall, the report provides valuable insights into public sentiment ahead of the constitutional referendum.

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Kenya Constitution Referendum 2010: Public Opinion Insights

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  1. MINI-SPEC REFERENDUMApril 2010 Report Date: 24th April 2010

  2. Methodology

  3. POLL METHODOLOGY

  4. “How important do you think it is for Kenya to have a new constitution?” Base: 2003(All respondent)

  5. “How much do you know about the draft constitution?” Base: 2003(All respondent)

  6. “How much do you know about the draft constitution?” – by Province Base: 2003(All respondent)

  7. “How much do you know about the draft constitution?” – by Setting & Gender Base: 2003(All respondent)

  8. “How much do you know about the draft constitution?” – by Level of Education Base: 2003(All respondent)

  9. “Who has influenced your opinion on draft constitution the most?” Base: 2003(All respondent)

  10. “Based on what you know about the draft constitution, is there anything at all that you do not like or support?” Base: 1729(Those know something about the draft constitution) .

  11. “Based on what you know about the draft constitution, is there anything at all that you do not like or support?” – By Province % Saying “Yes” Base: 1729 (Those know something about the draft constitution).

  12. “Based on what you know about the draft constitution, is there anything at all that you do not like or support?” Base: 1267 (Those who support the draft constitution in the referendum).

  13. “Do you support the inclusion of Kadhi courts in the draft constitution?” Base: 2003(All respondent)

  14. “Do you think Christian leaders are justified to run a 'No' campaign in regards to the draft constitution?” Base: 2003(All respondent)

  15. “How would you vote in the referendum on the draft constitution?” Base: 2003(All respondent)

  16. “How would you vote in the referendum on the draft constitution?” – by Knowledge of Content. Base: 2003(All respondent)

  17. “How would you vote in the referendum on the draft constitution?” – by Province Base: 2003(All respondent)

  18. “What is the main reason you haven’t made up your mind? Base: 376(Those still Undecided)

  19. POLL METHODOLOGY The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A sample size of 2,003 respondents was drawn, using a 35:65 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95% confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target population opinion. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 21st-23th April 2010. Data were collected through Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI). CATI is a call-centre approach towards survey interviewing, and consists of two systems: (1) a computer system (both hardware and software) for administering electronic questionnaires, and (2) a telephone system for contacting the respondents. The advantage of this methodology is that it is fast and accurate with responses entered into computers as the phone interviews were being conducted.

  20. POLL METHODOLOGY…Continued To administer SPEC survey on CATI, a database of 50,000 Kenyans aged 18+ was used. This database has been accumulated over time by Steadman Synovate (and is continuing to be augmented). In this database, comprising the sampling frame, respondent information such as demographics and geographical location was collected, including ownership of/access to mobile phones, allowing those respondents to be contacted by this (CATI) method. To achieve the sample for this opinion polls, a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) on this database was used. Doing this ensured geographical representation, i.e., explicitly in terms of province and setting (urban/rural) to match the sample structure of previous polls and implicitly reflecting the distribution of population over Kenya’s districts. During the interview process, those who were not reached at the first attempt (either because the number was busy or the call did not go through), automatic appointments/call backs were programmed by the CATI software. In the event that no contact was made after 5 attempts on different days and times, this number was substituted.

  21. POLL METHODOLOGY …Continued (II) The data collection involved the use of an electronic semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed-ended questions. The survey questions were structured so as to allow for a broad range of opinion-options, including “no opinion.” This eliminates bias in the way the questions are asked, and responses captured. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The CATI Supervisors made a minimum of 15% back-checks to ascertain whether the calls were actually made and if the responses given were correct.

  22. Thank You For Your Attention.Our Curiosity Is All Yours.

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