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Determination of Forward and Futures Prices Chapter 5

Determination of Forward and Futures Prices Chapter 5. Consumption vs Investment Assets. Investment assets are assets held by significant numbers of people purely for investment purposes (Examples: gold, silver)

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Determination of Forward and Futures Prices Chapter 5

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  1. Determination of Forward and Futures PricesChapter 5

  2. Consumption vs Investment Assets • Investment assets are assets held by significant numbers of people purely for investment purposes (Examples: gold, silver) • Consumption assets are assets held primarily for consumption (Examples: copper, oil)

  3. Continuous Compounding • In the limit as we compound more and more frequently we obtain continuously compounded interest rates • $100 grows to $100eRTwhen invested at a continuously compounded rateRfor time T • $100 received at time Tdiscounts to $100e-RTat time zero when the continuously compounded discount rate is R

  4. Conversion Formulas Define r: continuously compounded rate R: same rate with compounding m times per year

  5. Examples • Bank account pays 4% compounded monthly • What is the (annual) continuously compounded returns? r = 12ln(1+.04/12) = 3.993% • What is the future value of $100 dollars in 15 months? FV = 100exp{.03993x15/12} = $ 105.12 or FV = 100(1+.04/12)15 = $ 105.12

  6. Notation

  7. Gold Example • For gold F0 = S0(1 + r )T (assuming no storage costs) • If ris compounded continuously instead of annually F0 = S0erT

  8. Extension of the Gold Example • For any investment asset that provides no income and has no storage costs F0 = S0erT

  9. T = 0 CF0 sell forward: 0 buy spot: -S borrow S @ r: +S Net cash flow: 0 Arbitrage portfolio T=1 CF1 Deliver: +F Payoff debt: -SerT Profit = F - SerT Suppose F > SerT

  10. When an Investment Asset Provides a Known Dollar Income F0= (S0– I )erT where I is the present value of the income

  11. Suppose F > (S – I)erT • T = 0 CF0 • sell forward: 0 • buy spot: -S • Sell Income +I • borrow S @ r: (S-I) • Net cash flow: 0 • Arbitrage portfolio • T=1 CF1 • Deliver: +F • Payoff debt: -(S-I)erT • Profit = F – (S-I)erT

  12. When an Investment Asset Provides a Known Yield F0 = S0e(r–q )T where q is the average yield during the life of the contract (expressed with continuous compounding)

  13. Forward vs Futures Prices • Forward and futures prices are usually assumed to be the same. When interest rates are uncertain they are, in theory, slightly different: • A strong positive correlation between interest rates and the asset price implies the futures price is slightly higher than the forward price • A strong negative correlation implies the reverse

  14. Stock Index • Can be viewed as an investment asset paying a dividend yield • The futures price and spot price relationship is therefore F0 = S0e(r–q )T where q is the dividend yield on the portfolio represented by the index

  15. Stock Index(continued) • For the formula to be true it is important that the index represent an investment asset • In other words, changes in the index must correspond to changes in the value of a tradable portfolio • The Nikkei index viewed as a dollar number does not represent an investment asset

  16. Index Arbitrage • When F0>S0e(r-q)Tan arbitrageur buys the stocks underlying the index and sells futures • When F0<S0e(r-q)Tan arbitrageur buys futures and shorts or sells the stocks underlying the index

  17. Index Arbitrage(continued) • Index arbitrage involves simultaneous trades in futures and many different stocks • Very often a computer is used to generate the trades • Occasionally (e.g., on Black Monday) simultaneous trades are not possible and the theoretical no-arbitrage relationship between F0 and S0 does not hold

  18. Futures and Forwards on Currencies • A foreign currency is analogous to a security providing a dividend yield • The continuous dividend yield is the foreign risk-free interest rate • It follows that if rfis the foreign risk-free interest rate

  19. Suppose F > Se(r-rf)T • Let S be the spot exchange rate in $/£ • Then S dollars buys 1 pound • Alternative to forward is to convert dollars to pounds and then invest in Britain • Therefore, carry cost in domestic currency is offset by foreign currency rate • q = rf

  20. repay $ SerT Borrow $S exchange $/£ Se(r-rf)T £1 £ erfT invest

  21. Futures on Consumption Assets F0S0e(r+u )T where u is the storage cost per unit time as a percent of the asset value. Alternatively, F0(S0+U )erT where U is the present value of the storage costs.

  22. The Cost of Carry • The cost of carry, c, is the storage cost plus the interest costs less the income earned • For an investment asset F0 = S0ecT • For a consumption asset F0S0ecT • The convenience yield on the consumption asset, y, is defined so that F0 = S0 e(c–y )T

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