Enrolment Planning Model

1. Enrolment Planning Model Presentation to the HEDA User Group November 2013 David BleazardDirector: Institutional Planningbleazardd@cput.ac.za Enrolment_Plan_Nov2013_1

2. Objective • To sketch the development of the HEDA Enrolment Planning Model, from a user perspective • To demonstrate the functionality and output of the model

3. Background • The development of an Enrolment Planning Model was discussed at the 2012 User Group • We had not yet received the request from DHET to submit a plan for 2014-2019 • IDSC offered to develop an Excel-based model • The DHET request arrived a few days later after the User Group meeting, with a deadline of 28 February 2013

4. Early Development • CPUT’s initial requirements were ambitious • The model should combine enrolment data with data on applications and admissions, and on resources • It should report according to both the DHET requirements and the University reporting structure • It should require as little input as possible from the envisaged end user, the academic Head of Department

5. Unit of Planning • An early question related to the appropriate unit of planning to be used in the model • CPUT’s initial proposal was the subject (or module), based on the need to report FTEs in the DHET template • Another contender was the Qualification • In the end, it was decided to use the Approved Qualification Description (or Approved Qual ID) • This simplified the model for the end user, making it more manageable than either the Qualification or Subject options

6. Early Planning Template 11 January 2013

7. CPUT Practice • In preparing its earlier enrolment plans for submission toDHET, CPUT had decided on an overall growth rate and differential growth rates between faculties, in the light of its strategic plan • The MIS Office had then extrapolated the historical numbers in the DHET template according to these parameters • A key requirement for the model was that it should allow the same parameters to be set. The model should then calculate projections, based on the parameters

8. Growth Parameters 6 February 2013

9. First-time Cluster Enrolments • The notion of First-time Cluster Enrolments (FCEs) is a key planning construct developed for HEDA • It refers to that group (or “cluster”) of students in an institution who enrol for a particular qualification for the first time in a particular year • This number will typically be higher than the HEMIS-defined First-time Entering students • The Enrolment Planning Model calculated the number of FCEs required in each year, based on past history, in order to achieve the desired growth rates per faculty

10. Offering Type • The original plan was not to go down to the level of the Offering Type • In the interests of simplicity, CPUT had argued for a distinction only between full-time and part-time enrolments • The Offering Type was included on request of TUT • This was a crucial early enhancement of the model, allowing CPUT to distinguish between enrolments for the same Qual ID on different campuses, and between full-time and part-time enrolments

11. Intervention by HoDs • The only intervention required of the academic Heads of Department was to interrogate the projected FCEs and to adjust them in the light of information they might have regarding resources • E.g. the availability of space, of staff, or of likely in-service training places for the students • The original idea was that the HoDs would make these changes themselves, within the model • This was considered too impractical within the timeframe • Excel tables showing the projected FCEs were distributed to the HoDs for amendment and return to Institutional Planning

12. Later Planning Template 24 July 2013

13. Template Graphs

14. The HEQSF Complication • The Enrolment Planning Model was implicitly premised on existing qualifications • Based on the University’s proposed growth rates, the model calculated the required FCEs based on the history of each Qual ID • The first iteration of the planning process threw up the need to include new qualification that would be introduced during the planning period as part of the HEQSF re-curriculation process • Such qualifications were not on the University’s database and had no history

15. Tweaking the Model • The Enrolment Planning Model was adjusted to allow for the capturing of new qualifications • Depending on the information captured, the model calculated the required FCEs going forward • Given the absence of any history, the default calculation was based on the University’s average performance • Provision was made for the override of the default parameters

16. Capturing New Qualifications

17. CPUT Practice • Without thinking about it much, CPUT developed the practice of capturing the new qualifications in upper and lower case, whereas the existing qualifications came out of the database all in uppercase • This made it clear in the output of the model which qualifications were new • The new qualifications were provided with provisional qualification codes, in accordance with CPUT’s coding convention • IDSC added an identifying prefix to the new qualifications in the model

18. Beyond the Call of Duty • An unanticipated problem was the inordinate length of time it required (at least at CPUT) to capture overrides to the calculated values in the model • Problems also arose with the capturing of the new qualifications • In order to assist, Thys offered to capture changes submitted to him • As a result, he spent a number of weekends – as well as weekdays – capturing CPUT data

19. Model Outputs • The Enrolment Planning Model provides reports for both external (DHET) and internal (CPUT) purposes • Both the plan as submitted to DHET and a pivot table with the internal report are available via the CPUT MIS Portal • The internal numbers are incorporated in CPUT’s Enrolment Monitor dashboard

20. DHET Report

21. Internal Report

22. Enrolment Monitor