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Mercers’ School Memorial Professor of Commerce Michael Mainelli

Mercers’ School Memorial Professor of Commerce Michael Mainelli. Perfectly Unpredictable Why Forecasting Produces Useful Rubbish. Outline. Fracticality Forecasting exercise Forecasting hurricanes Fair distribution Forecasting forecasting.

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Mercers’ School Memorial Professor of Commerce Michael Mainelli

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  1. Mercers’ School Memorial Professor of CommerceMichael Mainelli Perfectly Unpredictable Why Forecasting Produces Useful Rubbish

  2. Outline • Fracticality • Forecasting exercise • Forecasting hurricanes • Fair distribution • Forecasting forecasting “Get a detailed grip on the big picture.”Chao Kli Ning

  3. Digitising – Circa 1983

  4. Not To Scale 1946 OS map London SE sheet 171, 1 inch = 1 mile, 1:63,360 (yes I know, samples of scale, not their scale on this slide!) 1:625,000

  5. Don’t Generalise - From 491 To 18

  6. Digitality

  7. Engineers Like To Do It With Curves

  8. Real versus Fake

  9. Fracticality

  10. Supremely Engineered Fakes?

  11. Ulstermate Accuracy [Jodocus Hondius, 1563-1612] [Andrew Dury, London, 1764]

  12. Left or Right Exercise - 1

  13. Left or Right Exercise? - 2

  14. Left or Right Exercise - 3

  15. Unusual Success 7/7 5/7 5/7

  16. Scientific Method [http://www3.shastacollege.edu/dscollon/images/scientific_method.JPG]

  17. Phillips’ Economic Computer

  18. Financial Hurricanes

  19. FairDistributions Poisson Normal Power Law Erlang

  20. Fans of Charts

  21. Dynamic Anomaly & Pattern Response

  22. Prediction Markets Matter

  23. Qualitative versus Quantitative

  24. Model or Module?

  25. Forecasting Forecasting • Probabilistic forecasting • Dynamic anomaly & pattern response • Predictive markets • Qualitative versus quantitative • “The model is the message”

  26. Discussion • Does the qualitative versus qualitative forecasting distinction hold true? • Will increasing indirect impacts through information technology make self-fulfilling prophecies more likely? John William Waterhouse The Crystal Ball (1902, oil on canvas)

  27. Perfectly Undpredictable:Why Forecasting Produces Useful Rubbish Thank you! “Get a big picture grip on the details.”Chao Kli Ning

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