Energy Security and Climate Change: The Hard Choices Facing Us

1. CNS School 12th October 2007 Energy security and climate change: the hard choices facing us. Recipient of James Watt Medal 5th October 2007 Keith Tovey (杜伟贤)M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation: Energy Science Director: School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia CRed

3. Latest Temperature Data from GISS 10/09/2007

4. 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 Is Global Warming man made? actual predicted Temperature Rise (oC) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 actual predicted Temperature Rise (oC) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 actual predicted Temperature Rise (oC) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 • Predictions include: • Greenhouse Gas emissions • Sulphates and ozone • Solar and volcanic activity Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

5. Increasing Occurrence of Flood Increasing Occurrence of Drought Change in precipitation 1961-2001 Source: Tim Osborne, CRU Total summer precipitation Total winter precipitation

6. Norwich Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise (Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London) Norwich City would be playing water polo!

7. Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 2003 1979 • Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region • Nasa satellite imagery • 20% reduction in 24 years Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

8. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018.

9. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

10. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

11. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable • Transport Fuels: • Biodiesel? • Bioethanol? • Compressed gas from • methane from waste. But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

12. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

13. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

14. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Output 78 000 GWh per annum Sufficient for 13500 house in Orkney Save 40000 tonnes of CO2

15. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

16. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

17. It is all very well for South East, but what about the North? House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!

18. Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security There is a looming capacity shortfall Even with a full deployment of renewables. A 10% reduction in demand per house will see a rise of 7% in total demand - Increased population decreased household size • Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015 • New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2018 • New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018

19. Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power • Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our • COAL fired power stations within 10 years - unlikely. If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

20. Our Choices: They are difficult • If our answer is YES • By 2020 • we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS • imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria • Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. • Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? – • Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendantSecurity issues that raises.

21. Historic and Future Demand for Electricity Business as usual Energy Efficient Future ? Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static

22. Electricity Options for the Future • Energy Efficiency – consumption capped at 420 TWh by 2010 • But 68% growth in gas demand • (compared to 2002) • Business as Usual • 257% increase in gas consumption • ( compared to 2002) The Gas Scenario Assumes all new non-renewable generation is from gas. Replacements for ageing plant Additions to deal with demand changes Assumes 10.4% renewables by 2010 25% renewables by 2025

23. Alternative Electricity Options for the Future • 25% Renewables by 2025 • 20000 MW Wind • 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc. Energy Efficiency Scenario Other Options Some New Nuclear needed by 2025 if CO2 levels are to fall significantly and excessive gas demand is to be avoided Business as Usual Scenario New Nuclear is required even to reduce back to 1990 levels

24. Decision Time for you In groups for next 5 minutes discuss the following • How should we generate electricity in the period up to 2030? • Beyond 2030? • How important is Energy Security? • What is important to ensure Energy Security? • What are your reactions to wind turbines?

26. Wind Turbines are Incredibly Inefficient • Efficiency: • the ratio of the USEFUL work to the total energy available (or expended) • Oxford English Dictionary Modern Wind Turbines convert 40 – 42%% of available energy in the wind Modern Coal Fired Power Stations achieve 38% Sizewell B achieves 32% A car engine achieve 20 - 25% at best Compared to many other energy devices, Wind Turbines are Very Efficient

27. Is Efficiency being confused with Capacity Factor? • The Capacity Factor is a measure of how much use is made of an appliance compared to the amount that could be achieved at rated output over a year. • Wind Turbines have a Capacity Factor of 22% for first generation turbines in the East to 30%+ for the latest generation machines. Capacity factors are higher in the West and as much as 40% or more in places in Scotland. Even in East Anglia, capacity factors of 50% are achieved in some months. • A capacity factor of 30% does not mean it is only working for 30% of the time. It means that it could be working at 30% of output for 100% of the time, 100% of output for 30% of time, or any combination between. The fact the turbine is working does not mean that it is at its rated output. • Large coal and nuclear stations are off line for up to 50 days at a time – loosing equivalent output of 700 + turbines. • A car driven 10000 miles has a capacity factor about 4%. • A washing machine used 5 times a week has a capacity factor of 3%.

28. Some Myths about Wind Energy • What happens when the wind does not blow?. • Large Coal /Nuclear Stations trip/ have failures and these cause a loss of power within a matter of minutes. • In terms of short term variations wind is more reliable. • Wind Turbines kill birds. • Evidence suggesta that a few birds are killed typically 3 per installed MW per year except in a few locations. In many cases it is much less • Oldest wind farm in UK on Burgar Hill has an RSPB reserve right next to it. • Currently UK has around 1700 MW wind turbines installed perhaps 5000 birds killed a year • Estimates of 1 million killed each year by vehicles

29. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. Around 4 million in the Diocese of Norwich. In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person Is this Fair? "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

30. Raising Awareness At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai • A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2. • 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. • A Mobile Phone charger: up to 20 kWh per year • ~ 1000 balloons each year. 10 kg CO2 • Standby on electrical appliances • 60+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons. • Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) • --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for1 hour? 1.6 miles

31. Saving Energy – A Practical Guide Ways to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint Micro CHP Heat Pumps Micro Wind

32. The Behavioural Dimension • Household size has little impact on electricity consumption. • Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any given household size. • Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6 or more. • Education/Awareness is important

33. Transport • Car: 5 door Toyota Yaris • Real performance is best at ~ 50 mph. Saves up to 15% in fuel consumption cf 70 mph. • Driver behaviour trials at Banham Poultry • Driver behaviour affects performance • Driver 2 uses 13.8% more fuel

34. Historic Trends: Freight Transport on Roads • Distance each tonne has travelled has increased by: • 223% since 1960 • 20% since 1990 • Is this increase in movement of freight conducive to optimum economic growth, energy security, and carbon reduction?

35. Electricity Statistics: • Each house in Norwich consumes, 3727 kWh per year. • Broadland 5057 kWh Breckland 5612 kWh • North Norfolk 5668 kWh South Norfolk 5797 kWh • Kings Lynn and 5908 kWh Great 5144 kWh • West Norfolk Yarmouth • A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands can supply twice domestic demand of Norwich or 66% on average. • (or 22% of total demand) • Saves ~ 70 000 to 75 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or 40 000 hot air balloons each year. • The alternatives: • Persuade 30 000 motorists never to drive the car again • Or300 000 motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year. • Widespread deployment of small scale renewables, and energy conservation.

36. Involve the local Community • The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine. • On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity. • Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward. • Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.

37. Involve the local Community Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray. The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly powered by Wind Turbines Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm and other vehicles. Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea weed

38. Hard Choices • What can we as individuals do? • What can we do collectively as a Community? • Visit the CRed WEB Site • Sign a pledge to • combat global warming • help secure a sustainable environment for our children • help reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warming • help secure energy supplies for the future • saving energy • Adopting technical solutions • Promoting Awareness • Promoting appropriate renewable energy www.cred-uk.org

39. Decision Time for you In groups for next 5 minutes discuss the following • What could you pledge to do at home? • What could CNS Pledge to do?

40. Conclusions • Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades • Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future. • Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy and small changes to behaviour. It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. • Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years. • Otherwise Nuclear??? • Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.

41. WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links Conclusions • Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." LaoTzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

42. The average family car releases 10 grams of CO2 every 50m Animation Courtesy of Rob Hannington

45. Latest Temperature Data from GISS 10/09/2007 These represent temperatures for US only

46. Wind Turbines are Incredibly Inefficient • Efficiency: • the ratio of the USEFUL work to the total energy available (or expended) • Oxford English Dictionary Modern Wind Turbines convert 40 – 42%% of available energy in the wind Modern Coal Fired Power Stations achieve 38% Sizewell B achieves 32% A car engine achieve 20 - 25% at best Compared to many other energy devices, Wind Turbines are Very Efficient

47. Is Efficiency being confused with Capacity Factor? • The Capacity Factor is a measure of how much use is made of an appliance compared to the amount that could be achieved at rated output over a year. • Wind Turbines have a Capacity Factor of 22% for first generation turbines in the East to 30%+ for the latest generation machines. Capacity factors are higher in the West and as much as 40% or more in places in Scotland. Even in East Anglia, capacity factors of 50% are achieved in some months. • A capacity factor of 30% does not mean it is only working for 30% of the time. It means that it could be working at 30% of output for 100% of the time, 100% of output for 30% of time, or any combination between. The fact the turbine is working does not mean that it is at its rated output. • Large coal and nuclear stations are off line for up to 50 days at a time – loosing equivalent output of 700 + turbines. • A car driven 10000 miles has a capacity factor about 4%. • A washing machine used 5 times a week has a capacity factor of 3%.