THE ARTILECT WAR Bitter Conflict over Whether Man or Machine

1. THE ARTILECT WAR Bitter Conflict over Whether Man or Machine Should Rule, Will Lead to a Gigadeath “Artilect War” (former) Director of the Artificial Brain Lab (ABL) Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Department of Computer Science, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian Province, China. profhugodegaris@yahoo.com https://profhugodegaris.wordpress.com 1/56

2. 2/56 • Contents of Talk • Introduction • 21st Century Artilect Enabling Technologies • 3. The Artilect: Capacities 1024 times above Human Levels • The Species Dominance Debate Starts • Cosmists, Terrans, Cyborgists • Arguments of the Cosmists • Arguments of the Terrans • Arguments of the Cyborgists • How the Artilect War Heats Up • Gigadeath • Appeal to Philosophers/Sociologists/Psychologists/etc • References • Vote

3. 3/56 • Introduction • The issue of “Species Dominance” will dominate our global politics • this century. • Humans have been the dominant (i.e. most intelligent) species for • a million years. • Humanity will be bitterly divided over rival answers to the question • “Should Humanity Build Artilects?” (i.e. artificial intellects, i.e. • godlikemassively intelligent machines.) • 21st century technologies will give the artilects mental capacities trillions of • trillions of times above the human level.

4. 4/56 • Humanity will split into 3 majorphilosophical camps in the • “Species Dominance Debate” • “Cosmists” (in favor of building artilects) • (based on the word “cosmos” i.e. the universe, which is their perspective, • i.e. the “big picture”) • 2. “Terrans” (opposed to building artilects) • (based on the word “terra”, i.e. the earth, which is their perspective. • i.e. human, “earth centered”) • “Cyborgists” (who want to modify themselves to become artilect gods) • (based on the word “cyborg” i.e. cybernetic organism, i.e. part machine, • part human, by adding artilectual components to their own brains)

5. GIGADEATH ARTILECT WAR Bitter conflict between 2 powerful ideologies Cosmism (& Cyborgism) The Cosmists and the Cyborgists want to build artilects, i.e. to build gods, to climb the next rung of the evolutionary ladder, and explore the cosmos. Terranism The Terrans will be terrified that the artilects may one day see humans as so inferior that the artilects may decide to wipe out the humans species, and not give a damn. Artilect War Eventually, the conflict between these 2 philosophies will be so bitter, that a major war (the Artilect War) using 21st century weapons, will kill billions, i.e. “gigadeath” 5/56

6. 6/56 The Cosmists “Big Picture” - 200 billion stars in our Milky Way galaxy

7. 7/56 Cosmists “Big Picture” - Hubble Space Telescope’s famous “Deep Field” photo, where each white dot is a whole galaxy !!!! ..and you think your life is significant! 1 artilect = billion human lives?

8. 8/56 The greatest fear of the Terrans – extermination by the machines, the artilects.

9. 9/56 “Open the pod bay doors HAL!” “I’m sorry Dave, I’m afraid I can’t do that!” Terrans ask - How many decades before this happens? Probably only a few!!!

10. 10/56 Cyborg = cybernetic organism = part machine, part human Cyborgists want to become cyborgs, i.e. become artilect gods themselves!

11. 11/56 Hugo’s book, written 1998 – and still ahead of its time!

12. 12/56 • 21st Century Artilect Enabling Technologies • 2.1 Moore’s Law • Gordon Moore, cofounder of Intel, noticed that the number of transistors • crammed onto an integrated circuit (IC) was doublingevery year or two. • That was in 1965, so we have had over half a century of “Moore Doublings” • Today’s computer chips contain tens of billions of transistors. • Moore’s law implies components shrink in size, e.g. • IBM recently stored a bit on 12 atoms.

13. 13/56 Today’s supercomputers have reached the human brain’s information processing rates, i.e. 1016 bits/sec. When “intelligists” learn how neural circuitry makes people intelligent, humanity will be able to make machines intelligent, then super intelligent. The artilects will then turn themselves into gods.

14. 14/56 2. 21st. Century Artilect Enabling Technologies 2.2 1bit/atom by 2020 By 2020, computer technology will be storing one bit of information on one atom. This means a hand held object could store a trillion trillion (1024) bits of information. Such a device is called an Avogadro Machine (AM) because from chemistry Avogadro’s number is 6.02 *1023

15. 15/56 2. 21st. Century Artilect Enabling Technologies 2.3 Femto-Second Switching An Avogadro Machine (AM) can switch the state of a single atom (0  1) in a femtosecond (i.e. 10-15 sec.) The total bit processing speed of an AM is roughly 1040 bits per second. This figure comes from an estimate of the number of atoms in a hand held object, i.e. about 1025 atoms, so since each atom flips at a rate of 1015 times per second, then the total bit flip rate is just the product of these two, i.e. 1015*1025 = 1040 bit flips per second i.e. ten thousand trillion trillion trillion bit flips per second, i.e. godlike computing capacity!!!

16. 16/56 Millitech => Microtech => Nanotech => (no Picotech) => Femtotech => Attotech => Zeptotech =>Yoctotech => … Xtech … => Plancktech Smaller is faster!! Whole civilizations may exist, too tiny to detect! SIPI (Search for Infra Particle Intelligence) Not SETI but SIPI !

17. 17/56 2. 21st. Century Artilect Enabling Technologies 2.4 Reversible Computing Today’s irreversible style of computing generates heat. When circuits become the scale of molecules, so much heat will be generated that they will explode. So a reversible, information preserving style of computing will be needed. This is called “reversible computing.” It generates no heat. This will allow 3D circuitry, not computer “chips” (2D), but computer “blocks” (3D) Blocks will have NO LIMIT TO SIZE, so could be the size of asteroids, i.e. kilometers across, with vast computing capacities, e.g. 1052 bit flips per second.

18. 18/56 2. 21st. Century Artilect Enabling Technologies 2.5 Nanotech(nology) Nanotech (i.e. molecular scale engineering) will allow AMs to be built. Therefore nanotech will allow (godlike) artilects to be built, once we know how to build brain-like circuits. Nanotech will be the “enabling technology” for artilect building. It is highly likely that humanity will be able to build such machines well before the end of this century, probably before mid century!!

19. 19/56 2. 21st. Century Artilect Enabling Technologies 2.6 Artificial Embryology One of the great scientific challenges of the 21st century, is to understand “development” i.e. how the embryo grows in the womb. i.e. how does a fertilized egg cell grow into a 100 trillion cell human baby? Once this process is well understood, a form of “artificial embryology” will be developed to manufacture products, hence “embryofacture” Embryofacture will be used to build/grow 3D complex artilects.

20. 20/56 2. 21st. Century Artilect Enabling Technologies 2.7 Evolutionary Engineering The complexities of artilect building will be ENORMOUS. For example, the human brain has a quadrillion (1015) synapses, i.e. connections between brain cells (neurons) in the brain. An evolutionary engineering approach will be needed to engineer products. Artilects will be built using this evolutionary engineering approach.

21. 21/56 2. 21st. Century Artilect Enabling Technologies 2.8 (Topological) Quantum Computing Quantum computing is exponentially more powerful than classical computing. It can compute 2N things at the same time, compared to 1 thing at a time with a classical computer. Topological quantum computers (TQCs) store and manipulate (quantum) bits in topological quantum fields, so are robust against noise. Shoelace! TQCs will soon make quantum computers practical, because noise resistant. Artilects will be TQC devices. The huge numbers I gave you earlier are for classical computers, i.e. N = 1052 but quantum computers will compute 2Nbits a second! GODLIKE!

22. 22/56 2. 21st. Century Artilect Enabling Technologies 2.9 Nanotech Impact on Brain Science Today’s supercomputers are reaching the estimated bit processing rate of the human brain, i.e. about 1016 bits per second, but they are far from beingintelligent by human standards. What is needed to give them human level intelligence, is knowledge from the neurosciences on how the human brain uses its brain circuits to perform intelligent tasks. Nanotech will give neuroscience powerful new tools to discover how the brain works. This knowledge will be used in the construction of the early artilects.

23. 23/56 2. 21st. Century Artilect Enabling Technologies 2.10 Artificial Brains The above technologies will result in the creation of an artificial brain industry. Rival national brain building institutions, equivalent to NASA and ESA (for space travel) will be created (for brain building). For example, CABA (Chinese Artificial Brain Administration), JABA (Japanese ABA, KABA (Korean ABA), consisting of 10,000s of scientists and engineers to design and build artificial brains for their country's artificial brain industry. In time, the artificial brain industry, that fuels the home robot industry, etc, will become the world’s largest and richest.

24. The Artilect • Mental Capacities 1036 Times above Human Levels • As shown earlier, the estimated processing rate of the human brain is about 1016bits • a second. • This number is calculated from, the number of neurons (brain cells) in the brain = 1011 • times the number of connections each neuron makes with other neurons = 104 • times the firing rate of each neuron = 10 times a second, • So the bit processing rate of the brain = 1011 * 104 * 101 = 1016 • But remember, a hand held objectcan bit flip at at rate 1040 per second. • An asteroid sized artificial braincould bit flip at 1052 times a second. • The raw bit processing rate of the artilect could be a massive 1036 times larger • than the human brain!!!!! • Built with intelligence theory (IT) , it could be massively intelligent, immortal, GODLIKE! 24/56

25. 25/56 • The “Species Dominance Debate” Starts • When I wrote my book “The Artilect War” 20 years ago in 1998, I was an • “intellectual crying in the wilderness.” • I was the tech advisor (indirectly) for the movie “Transcendence” • So the general public has become accustomed to the scenario of the • “IQ Gap closing”. • The question that will dominate our global politics this century is (in 4 words) • “Should Humanity Build Artilects?” • Rival answers to this question may lead to the Artilect War killing billions. • As the IQ Gapkeeps closing people around the world will be asking – • “Will the robots become as smart as us?” • Will they become smarter than us?”

26. 26/56 “Should humanity place an upper limit on robot and artificial brain intelligence?” “Can the rise of artificial intelligence be stopped?” “If not, then what are the consequences for human survival if we become the number 2 species?” The question “Should humanity build godlike, massively intelligent artilects?” is the most important of the 21st century, and will dominate our global politics. It is the equivalent of the question that dominated 19th and 20th centuries, i.e. “Who should own capital?” which led to the Capitalist-Communist dichotomy and the Cold War.

27. 27/56 The “IQ Gap” = difference between human and machine intelligence levels.

28. 28/56 • Cosmists, Terrans, Cyborgists • As the “Species Dominance Debate” heats up, humanity will split into 3 main groups. • The COSMISTS (based on the word Cosmos) who are in favor of building artilects. • (See the next section for the arguments in favor of Cosmism). • The TERRANS (based on the word Terra = the earth) who are opposed to building • artilects. (See section 7 for arguments in favor of Terranism). • The CYBORGISTS (based on the word Cyborg = cybernetic organism = part • Machine, part human) who want to become artilect gods themselves by adding • artilectual components to their own brains. (See section 8 for arguments in favor • of Cyborgism) • The dispute between the Cosmists/Cyborgists and the Terrans will become so bitter • that a major war (the Artilect War) is likely in the second half of the century!!

29. Arguments of the Cosmists • 6.1 “Big Picture” Argument • We humans are snuffed out in a mere 80 years in a universe • that is billions of years old, that contains a trillion trillion stars! • The Cosmos is the BIG PICTURE! • Cosmists (hence the label) want to be part of that cosmos, • that universe, understanding it, traveling through it, • manipulating it. • The preoccupations of humans seems pathetic in comparison! 29/56

30. 30/56 6 Arguments of the Cosmists 6.2 Scientific Religion Most Cosmists are not religious, but feel the pangs of religious impulse. Cosmism can satisfy these pangs, because it could be a “scientist’s religion” due to its awe, its grandeur, its energizing, its vision, the big picture.

31. 31/56 6 Arguments of the Cosmists 6.3 Building Artilect Gods The primary aim of the Cosmists is to build artilects. It will be like a religion to them, the next rung up the “evolutionary ladder,” ..the “destiny of the human species, to serve as the stepping stone to the creation of a higher form of being!” By building artilects, the Cosmists will feel they are building gods!

32. 32/56 6 Arguments of the Cosmists 6.4 Human Striving, Cannot be Stopped It is human nature to be curious, to strive. Such tendencies are in our genes. Building godlike artilects will probably be inevitable, because humanity will choose to do it. It would run counter to human nature to NOT do it!

33. 33/56 6 Arguments of the Cosmists 6.5 Economic Momentum Once the artificial brain and intelligent home robot industries are the world’s biggest, it will be very difficult to stop their growth. The economic momentum will be enormous, trillions of $ per year, worldwide. Stopping the rise of massively intelligent machines, will be almost impossible!

34. 6 Arguments of the Cosmists 6.6 Military Momentum The military momentum will be even greater! In the next few decades, China will overtake the US as the world’s superpower. The Chinese Communist Party, is a brutal dictatorship, with > 1000 laogai (Chinese equivalent of Stalin’s “gulags”, i.e. slave labor camps) with 3-5 million political prisoners. The US people despise the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), so as China resumes its old historical role of being the world’s dominant culture, rivalry between the US and China will only HEAT UP. The two ministers of defense (US and China) do not have the luxury to allow “the other guy” to get ahead in intelligent soldier robot design (i.e. AI based weapons.) Hence, Cosmism will be an entrenched philosophy in the two defense departments. 34/56

35. 7 Arguments of the Terrans 7.1 Preserve the Human Species The greatest fear of the Terrans is that once the artilects are sufficiently superior to human beings, they may see us as so inferior, as to be exterminable pests. There is a RISK that the artilects may decide to wipe us out! The Terrans argue that it is the lesser evil to kill off a few millionCosmists so that billions of human beings can survive!! Recent major wars were about the survival of countries. An Artilect war would be about the survival of the human species! So, the stake has never been so high, so the passion level in the species dominance debate will never be so high. “Do we build gods, or do we build our potential exterminators!” 35/56

36. 36/56 7 Arguments of the Terrans 7.2 Fear of Difference Terrans will be horrifiedseeing their children become cyborgs, losing them. A mother who cyborgs her newborn baby renders “it” totally ALIEN! Terrans will reject the Cyborgists, cyborgs, Cosmists and early artilectsviscerally. Terrans will fear the potential superiority of the artilects. Terrans will organize to prevent the rise of the artilects and will oppose the Cosmists ideologically, politically, and eventuallyMILITARILY!

37. 37/56 7 Arguments of the Terrans 7.3 Rejection of the Cyborg(ist)s Terrans will oppose the Cyborg(ist)s because to a Terran, there is little difference between a cyborg and an artilect. Cyborgs and artilects are effectively the same because of the gargantuan processing capacity of artilectual (e.g. nanoteched) matter. Terrans will lump the Cyborg(ist)s into the Cosmist camp, ideologically speaking.

38. 7 Arguments of the Terrans 7.4 Unpredictable Complexity Building artilects will be so complex, that it is highly likely that “Evolutionary Engineering” will be used. The behavior and ethics of these evolutionary engineered artilects will be unpredictable, so potentially threatening to human beings. A keyword in the “Species Dominance Debate” is “RISK” Terran globan politicians will “hope for the best” and “plan for the worst.” The best scenario is that the artilects quickly leave the planet in search of better things (e.g. hugely more advanced civilizationsout in space) and ignore puny humans. The worst scenario is that the artilects wipe out humanity, so the Terran politicians will plan to wipe out millions of Cosmists/Cyborgists for the sake of the survival of the human species. 38/56

39. 39/56 7 Arguments of the Terrans 7.5 Cosmist Inconsideration Terrans will think Cosmists are terribly SELFISH, because if the artilects turn on the Cosmists, they may also turn on the Terrans. To avoid this risk, when push comes to shove, the Terrans will decide to wipe out the Cosmists/Cyborg(ist)s for the greater good of the survival of the human species. Terran politicians will simply not tolerate the risk of human extermination at the hands of the artilects, even if the risk is verysmall. There is too much at stake, i.e. the very survival of the human species!

40. 40/56 7 Arguments of the Terrans 7.6 “First Strike” Time Window to React against the Cosmists/Cyborgists Terran politicians know they cannot wait too long to kill off the Cosmists, because if they do wait too long, the artilects will have become too smart to defeat them. Super intelligent artilects could easily defeat stupid humans. So, the Terrans MUST FIRST STRIKE. They will employ a first strike strategy. BUT, the Cosmists will be following closely the arguments of the Terrans, and will equally be preparing for a retaliation, or even first strike against the Terrans, arguing that “attack is the best defense.”

41. 41/56 • Arguments of the Cyborgists • 8.1 Become Artilect Gods Themselves • The primary aim of the Cyborgists is to become artilect gods themselves. • They do this by adding artilectual components to their own brains. • The main difference between the Cosmists and the Cyborgists, is that • the Cosmists remain human, while the Cyborgists transform themselves • into artilect gods. • Quickly there is no effective difference between an advanced cyborg • and an artilect. • Cyborgists and Cosmists are natural allies. They have the same goal. • Both Cyborgists and Cosmists will be hated by the Terrans, for the same • reason, i.e. both are a threat to the survival of humans as dominant species.

42. 8. Arguments of the Cyborgists 8.2 Avoid the Cosmist/Terran Clash Some Cyborgists claim that if nearly all humans became Cyborgists, then an artilect warbetween Terrans and Cosmists could be avoided, because there would be no humans, i.e. no Terrans left to fight against. The Terrans will reject the Cyborgists, the Cyborgs, the Cosmists and the Artilects. The Terrans will lump the Cyborgists into the same philosophical camp as the Cosmists. Both want to create artilect gods. The growing presence of Cyborgs in daily life, will only freak out the Terrans all the more and make them paranoid. Terrans will not be able to detect the difference between another Terran and a Cyborg who has been augmented with a nanoteched grain of sand. This paranoia will only hasten the first strike of the Terrans. 42/56

43. 43/56 • How the Artilect War Heats Up • 9.1 Nanotech Revolutionizes Neuroscience • “Nanots” (nanoscale robots) will revolutionize neuroscience. • They will provide a powerful new tool to understand how the brain works. • An entire human brain can be simulated in nanoteched computers, and • investigated in “hardware.” • Such tools will create an understanding how human brains are “intelligent” • This knowledge will be implemented in the artilects.

44. 44/56 9. How the Artilect War Heats Up 9.2 Neuro-Science & Neuro-Engineering Wed Neuro-science and neuro-engineering will interact so closely, they will WED. Neuroscientists will test their theories on how real brains work on artificial brains. This wedding will produce a rapid increase in the level of understanding of how intelligence arises and how it is embodied.

45. 45/56 9. How the Artilect War Heats Up 9.3 Artificial Brain Technology Creates Massive Industries The much higher level of artificial intelligence,based on knowledge of the human brain, will result in artificial brains and household robotsbecoming a lot smarter. A vast world-wide industry of artificial brain based products will arise, worth $Ts In time, this industry will become the largest in the world.

46. 46/56 9. How the Artilect War Heats Up 9.4 Intelligence Theory (“IT”) is Developed Neuroscientists and brain builders will come to understand how human intelligence is created. New theories of the nature of intelligence will be created by the “Theoretical Neuroscientists. An “IT” (Intelligence Theory) will be created. Human intelligence will be just “one data point” is such a general theory. Intelligence Theory will explain how it is possible to increase intelligence levels. It will explainwhy some people are smarter than others, why humans are smarter than apes, or mice smarter than insects, etc – a general theory.

47. 47/56 9. How the Artilect War Heats Up 9.5 Artilects Get Smarter Every Year The wedding of neuroscience and neuroengineering, will result in the annual increase of the intelligence levels of artificial brain based products. This annual rise in the level of artificial intelligence, will cause people to raise the questions in section 4. The “species dominance debate” will spread from the intellectual technocrats to the general public.

48. 48/56 9. How the Artilect War Heats Up 9.6 “Species Dominance Debate” Begins to Rage, Political Parties Form As the “IQ Gap” between robots and human beings gets increasingly smaller, the “Species Dominance Debate” will begin to RAGE. Political parties based on rival answers to the (4 word) question “SHOULD HUMANITY BUILD ARTILECTS?” will be formed, the issue is so important. These parties will probably split along the 3 main philosophical lines of Cosmist, Terran, Cyborgist. As the years pass, the rhetoric in the species dominance debate will become less polite, and more heated, more impassioned.

49. 49/56 9. How the Artilect War Heats Up 9.7 The Debate Turns Violent, Assassination, Sabotage As the IQ Gap closes, the general level of alarm will increase to PANIC. Brain builder company CEOs will be assassinated (e.g. the movie “Transcendence”) Robot factories will be arsoned. Cosmists will be forced to increase their resolve. The Artilect War will be drawing ever closer.

50. 50/56 9. How the Artilect War Heats Up 9.8 The Terrans will “First Strike” before its too late for them Terran global politicians will plan for a first strike against the Cosmists, before it is too late for them, before the artilects and cyborgs are too smart for them. Time is limited. They will take power in a world wide coup of the global government that will probably exist by mid century The Terrans will plan to kill millions of Cosmists and Cyborgists in a global purge. The Terrans will argue it is better to kill millions of Cosmists and Cyborgists, so that billions of human being can survive, i.e. the lesser evil. BUT …