1 / 54

The Science of Global Climate Change: How Climate Change May Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems

Explore the impact of climate change on Minnesota's ecosystems with Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director of the University of Minnesota’s Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve. Learn about the changing temperatures, precipitation patterns, and biomes in Minnesota and discover what the future holds for the state's climate.

ssoares
Download Presentation

The Science of Global Climate Change: How Climate Change May Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Science of Global Climate Change: How Climate Change May Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director of the University of Minnesota’s Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve

  2. 2012 Hottest on Record for the U.S. “It's perhaps no surprise that 2012 has been officially named the warmest year on record in the contiguous United States. The first decade of the 21st century was the warmest on record…The average temperature was 55.3 degrees F, or 3.2 degrees F above the 20th-century average. Last year also was second only to 1998 in terms of extreme climate, as measured by U.S. Climate Extremes Index, which takes into account factors like high temperatures, dry spells and rainy periods.” - NBC News (reporting based on NOAA announcement of Jan. 8, 2013)

  3. What May Happen to Minnesota’s Climate? How May Changes in Climate Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems?

  4. Welcome to Lake Superior? Stock Photos

  5. It’s All About the Climate… CLIMATE is the prevailing weather conditions of a region averaged over long periods of time. Wikipedia

  6. …and the Biomes that Result North America’s Biomes A BIOME is a large land area characterized by a prevailing CLIMATE that supports a major ecological community type. Wikipedia

  7. Minnesota’s Biomes MN DNR Minnesota is unique in that it supports three major biomes, making it a grand ECOTONE… a transition zone between biomes.

  8. Where Goes the Climate, so Goes the Biomes…

  9. Climate & Biome Patterns Pearson Education

  10. Temperature (Solar Radiation) Precipitation (Amount & Timing) Soil Moisture (Evapotranspiration)

  11. Global Biomes “Survive & Thrive” (Robert) U.S.

  12. Average Annual Temperature (U.S.) “Survive & Thrive” Tolerance Ranges -20oF 0oF 30oF 41oF 60oF 80oF 41oF -14oF BOREAL FOREST 60oF 40oF DECIDUOUS 72oF 10oF GRASSLAND 80oF J.Corney

  13. Average Annual Precipitation (U.S.) “Survive & Thrive” Tolerance Ranges 10in. 20in. 35in. 45in. 60in. 26in. 15in. BOREAL FOREST 40in. 25in. DECIDUOUS FOREST 60in. 10in. GRASSLAND 35in. J.Corney

  14. Continental U.S. Biomes 66cm (26in.) U.S. 5oC (41oF)

  15. 39oF 51oF 39oF (1971-2000) 42oF U.S. Average Temperatures 42oF 45oF 45oF 51oF 54oF 48oF 58oF 51oF 62oF 54oF 64oF 58oF 72oF 68oF 68oF 62oF 64oF 72oF 72oF

  16. N B U.S.: -26-16oC (-14-60oF) Temperature Boreal Sub-Arctic 5oC (41oF) Eco tone Sub-Tropical Temperate S U.S.: -12-27oC (10-80oF) U.S.: 2-22oC (35-72oF) J.Corney

  17. U.S. Average Precipitation

  18. Precipitation Arid Semi-Arid E W 66cm (26in.) Eco tone Semi-Mesic Mesic J.Corney 25-87cm (10-35in) 40-100cm (15-40in) 65-150cm (25-60in)

  19. Soil Moisture U.S. Estimated Water Budget Evapotranspiration 67% Surface Runoff 29% Wikipedia Consumptive Use 2% Groundwater Outflow 2% USGS

  20. Heat Energy “Drives” Evapotranspiration Water Vapor Pressure by Temperature UCF.edu Purdue.edu

  21. Moisture Retained in the Soil

  22. U.S. “Pan” Evaporation Rates (a rough measure of Potential Evapotranspiration) Wikipedia NOAA

  23. Soil Moisture N W Ecotone E S J.Corney

  24. Typical U.S. Drought Conditions Hanson & Weltzin; NOAA data

  25. North America’s Prairie-Forest Border ?

  26. What Is Minnesota’sCurrent Climate? Minnesota DNR State Climatology Office (Averaged over the past 115 years) TEMPERATURE: 41oF annual avg. PRECIPITATION: 26 in. annual avg. Do These Averages Look Familiar? Minnesota DNR State Climatology Office

  27. Temperature Isolines 37oF TEMPERATURE 41oF 44oF NWS

  28. Precipitation Isolines 26in PRECIPITATION 40in 22in 34in NWS

  29. Isoline Convergence Point MINNESOTA BIOMES 37oF CONIFEROUS FOREST TEMPERATURE 41oF DECIDUOUS FOREST GRASSLAND 44oF 26in 22in 34in NWS PRECIPITATION MN DNR

  30. Current MN Climate of 2012 MN avg. ranges 19in. – 34in. w/ Avg. = 26in. (66cm) 26in. 41oF MN annual avg. ranges 45oF - 36oF w/ Avg. = 41oF (5oC)

  31. Soil Moisture Balance USDA - - + + PRAIRIE FOREST USDA

  32. Have There Been Changes in MN’s Climate? IPCC

  33. TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (1900-1930) 36oF Average Annual Temperature Isoclines (oF) 40oF 1930 St. Cloud Area 41oF 43oF 26in 34in 19in 31in 23in Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches) NWS adapted by C. Lehman

  34. TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (1930-2010) 37oF 39oF Detroit Lakes Area 2010 41oF Average Annual Temperature Isoclines (oF) 44oF 34in 26in 30in 37in 22in NWS adapted by C. Lehman Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches)

  35. MINNESOTA BIOMES CONIFEROUS FOREST About a 100 mile shift 2010 1930 DECIDUOUS FOREST GRASSLAND MN DNR

  36. What May Happen to Minnesota’s Future Climate? IPCC NASA

  37. 2100 TEMPERATURE 3.5 – 4.0oC (6.3 – 7.2oF) INCREASE 5oC (41oF) Current Avg. becomes 9oC (48oF) Predicted Avg. PRECIPITATION 5 – 10% (1.3 – 2.6 in.) INCREASE 26 in. Current Avg. becomes 28 in. Predicted Avg. IPCC, 2007

  38. MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS > 2060 > 2030 2000 Minnesota DNR State Climatology Office

  39. 2100 MORE PRECIPITATION but…Summers may be muchdrier than current conditions. USGCRP

  40. TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (2010-2100) 41oF Oh, Canada! 2100 44oF 48oF Average Annual Temperature Isoclines (oF) 51oF 28in 32in 36in 26in 39in NWS adapted by C. Lehman Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches)

  41. Predicted MN Climate of 2100 MN avg. ranges 19in. – 37in. w/ Avg. = 28in. (71cm) 26in. 41oF MN annual avg. ranges 54oF - 42oF w/ Avg. = 48oF (9oC)

  42. MINNESOTA BIOMES About a 300 mile shift 2100 SAVANNA DECIDUOUS FOREST GRASSLAND J. Corney

  43. Soil Moisture Balance CURRENT [Rough Projection for 2100] USDA - - + + PRAIRIE FOREST PROJECTED Modified from USDA

  44. Projected (2100)

  45. 2100 1990 2012 Plant Hardiness Zones USDA & National Arbor Day Foundation

  46. USGCRP – Hayhoe, et al.

  47. Where Goes the Climate, so Goes the Biomes…

  48. So, Maybe Not This… Stock Photos

More Related