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NS 435 Unit 2: Impact of Ecological Changes on Agriculture

NS 435 Unit 2: Impact of Ecological Changes on Agriculture. Lei Wang, Ph.D. How Ecological Changes Affect Agriculture/Food Production? Short-Term Effects Long-Term Effects How Modern Agriculture Impacts the Climate? Alternative Solutions/Opportunities?. Outline.

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NS 435 Unit 2: Impact of Ecological Changes on Agriculture

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  1. NS 435 Unit 2:Impact of Ecological Changeson Agriculture Lei Wang, Ph.D.

  2. How Ecological Changes Affect Agriculture/Food Production? Short-Term Effects Long-Term Effects • How Modern Agriculture Impacts the Climate? • Alternative Solutions/Opportunities? Outline

  3. According to Siikamaki, (2006) “Agriculture is frequently discussed in the context of climate change: not only is agriculture vulnerable to climate change, it is also part of the problem and its potential solutions.” -Siikamaki, Juha. (2006). Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture. Examining the Connections. Environment, pg(s). 36-49. Food for Thought

  4. According to Peter Backlund from NCAR, “Human activities have altered the global climate. During the 20th century, the global average surface T increased 0.6 C and global sea level increased 15 to 20 cm.” • -Backlund, P., Janetos, A., and Schimel, D. Executive Summary: The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity, pages 1-10. Climate Context

  5. “… human influences will continue to change Earth’s climate throughout the 21st century. The global average T will rise another 1.1 to 5.4 C by 2100. Which will result in continued increases in sea level and overall rainfall.” • -Backlund, P., Janetos, A., and Schimel, D. Executive Summary: The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity, pages 1-10. Climate Context

  6. Temperature • Precipitation • CO2 concentrations • Water availability • Change in pest populations, plant diseases, and weeds. Examples of Ecological Factors

  7. Drought/Flooding: (extreme weather events) • Soil moisture/erosion, evaporation • Water pollution (i.e. agricultural run-off) • Heat Stress w/ rising temps– crops, livestock • Pollution levels (soil & H20) How May Ecological ChangesAffect Agriculture/Food Production?

  8. Increased pests, disease, weeds • Some crops more sensitive to rising temps (tomatoes– e.g.) • Altered Food Webs (e.g. polluted waters- marine food webs) How May Ecological ChangesAffect Agriculture/Food Production?

  9. Some crops– may improve growing conditions - however, with continued temp increase (esp. Southern regions) some crops may not adapt. - Northern regions may benefit most (since tend to be cooler.) e.g. longer growing season opportunity. -- Possible to grow new crops/different crops. Short-Term Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture

  10. Long-term effects of climate change are not fully understood. • Difficult to predict. Long Term Effects & Climate Change

  11. A vast majority of climate scientists agree that Earth will warm along with increasing greenhouse gases. However, the effects will be far more varied than a simple and uniform warming over the entire planet. Earth’s Future Climate

  12. Translate temperature changes from a model into trends that affect people's everyday lives. A 2004 NCAR study found that, by the period 2080-99, American and European heat waves will be more severe, frequent, and long-lasting. Earth’s Future Climate

  13. Another related study found that frost days will decline in many parts of the globe by 2080-99. The largest decreases are projected across the northwest parts of Europe and North America. • Such a change would affect agriculture and tourism as well as natural ecosystems. Earth’s Future Climate

  14. Questions?

  15. GHG emissions (burning of fossil fuels, manure, food transportation– e.g.) • Significant user of H20 resources. • Significant user of land resources. How Modern AgricultureImpacts the Climate

  16. Livestock– methane emissions • Factory Farming- e.g. (produce large amount of GHG) How Modern AgricultureImpacts the Climate

  17. Questions?

  18. GMO’s– e.g. resistant to drought/flooding • New, more tolerant crops • More irrigation, water storage • Agriculture & Forests = GHG “sinks” Alternative Solutions/Opportunities?

  19. Methane capture “tanks” • Increase irrigation efficiency • Focus on locally produce foods– e.g. Farmers Markets • Improved fertilization practices– e.g. timing Alternative Solutions/Opportunities?

  20. Backlund, P., Janetos, A., and Schimel, D. Executive Summary: The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity, pages 1-10. -Retrieved from: http://www.usda.gov/oce/global_change/files/SAP4_3/ExecSummary.pdf • Siikamaki, Juha. (2006). Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture: Examining the Connections. Environment, pgs. 36-49. • Retrieved from: http://kucourses.com/ec/courses/24739/CRS-NS435-3407037/Unit_2_Climate_Change_and_US_Agriculture.pdf Earth’s Future Climate: http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/research/climate/future.php References

  21. Questions?

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