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Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2012

Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2012. Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington, D.C. February 24, 2012. Situation Facing Livestock and Poultry Producers in 2012. Higher feed prices for most of year

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Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2012

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  1. Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2012 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington, D.C. February 24, 2012

  2. Situation Facing Livestock and Poultry Producers in 2012 Higher feed prices for most of year Corn: $5.80-$6.60/buin 2011/12 $5.18 in 2010/2011 Soybean meal: $290-$320/ton in 2011/12 $345 in 2010/2011 Feed prices should moderate moving into 2012/13 crop year

  3. Early Year Feed Costs Eat into Gains in Livestock and Poultry Prices * Forecast

  4. Highlights for Livestock & Poultry in 2012 Offsetting meat production Beef, lamb, and broilers lower Pork and turkey higher

  5. Red Meat and Poultry Production Will Decrease 1.8 Percent in 2012 * Forecast

  6. Highlights for Livestock & Poultry in 2012 Offsetting meat production Continued strength in exports but no aggregate growth

  7. Factors Affecting Exports Rising incomes fuel increased demand for meat protein. World GDP, at about 2-3 percent in 2012, slower than 2011. Weaker U.S. dollar will support meat exports. Smaller decline than 2011. Production growth in some markets increases competition.

  8. Total Per Capita Retail Basis Meat Disappearance in 2012 at 198 Pounds * Forecast

  9. Pork Will Gain Pricing Advantage at Retail * Forecast

  10. Beef Production to Decline to 25.1 Billion Pounds in 2012 Billion Pounds * Forecast

  11. Cattle Herd at 90.8 Million on Jan 1, 2012; Further Contraction Likely Million Head * Forecast

  12. Beef Cows 3 Percent Lower Jan. 1, 2012. Lowest since 1962 Million Head * Calf Crop Forecast

  13. Cattle for Feeding Lower on January 1 -2.3% +0.8% Million Head -4.0%

  14. Cattle Imports Decline to 2.05 Million Head In 2012 Million Head * Forecast

  15. Carcass Weight Growth Dampened by Light Placement Weights Pounds * Forecast

  16. 2011 Beef Exports at Record 2.79 Billion Pounds, 2012 Slightly Lower Top 4 Markets Equal 62% of exports Top 4 Markets Equal 94% of exports * Forecast

  17. 2012 Beef Imports Increase 2 Percent to 2.1 Billion Pounds Billion Pounds Million Head * Forecast

  18. Weak Dollar Mutes Price Signals

  19. Cattle Prices Rise in 2012, to Average$121 to $129 per cwt Dollars per cwt * Forecast

  20. Pork Production Will Increase to 23.2 Billion Pounds in 2012 Billion Pounds * Forecast

  21. Hog Inventory Increased to 65.9 Million Head on December 1, 2011 Million Head * Forecast

  22. Only Modest Growth in Sows Farrowing +0.9% +0.9% -0.9% +0.8% Million Head * Quarters 1-2 NASS Reported , Quarters 3-4 Forecast

  23. Growth in Pigs per Litter Remains About Same 1.8 % 1.9 % 1.7 % Head 2.2 % 2.1 % 1.5 % *Forecast

  24. Slow Increase in Canada’s Hog Inventory, Weak Dollar Will Limit U.S. Hog Imports Million Head Million Head * Slaughter and Imports Forecast

  25. 2011 Pork Exports Were Record 5.19 Billion Pounds * Forecast

  26. 2012 Pork Exports at 5.1 Billion Pounds, Pork Imports Decline Billion Pounds * Forecast

  27. Hog Prices to Average $63 to $67 per cwt Dollars per cwt * Forecast

  28. Broiler Meat Production Will Decline to 36.1 Billion Pounds in 2012 * Forecast

  29. Broiler Laying FlockMonthly Average

  30. Chicks Placed For Grow Out19 Selected States

  31. Live Bird Weights Moderating Pounds

  32. 2011 Broiler Exports Were Record 6.99 Bilion Pounds “Other” equals 40% “Other” equals 57%

  33. Broiler Whole Bird Prices to Average 82 to 87 Cents Per Pound Cents per Pound * Forecast

  34. Turkey Production Forecast at 5.9 Billion Pounds in 2012 * Forecast

  35. Turkey Poult Placements AboveYear Earlier

  36. Turkey Exports Will Decline in 2012

  37. Turkey Prices to Average $1.00-$1.07 per Pound * Forecast

  38. Egg Production Growth Slow * Forecast

  39. Table Egg Laying FlockMonthly Average

  40. Egg Prices Will Decline to $1.03-$1.09 per Dozen * Forecast

  41. Additional information about the 2012 outlook is available at the following websites: World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/index.htm Economic Research Service (ERS)Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Situation and Outlook www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldp/ Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp

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