Population & Demographic Change in North America: Implications for Natural Resources Conservation Organizations

1. Population & Demographic Change in North America: Implications for Natural Resources Conservation Organizations Ken Cordell(USDA Forest Service)a, Vanessa Lane (Univ. of Georgia)b, & Gary Green (Univ. of Georgia)c aPioneeringResearch Scientist USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Athens, GA. bPostdoctoralResearch Associate & cAssociate Professor UGA, Warnell School of Forestry Resources, Athens, GA.

2. Introduction • Review population & demographic trends & futures of the three major countries of the North American (NA) Continent • Overview research on linkages between population demographics & environmental values, attitudes & behaviors • Based on projections of population growth & demographic change, speculate about possible challenges for natural resources & wildlife conservation education

3. Overview North America • NA includes Mexico, the United States & Canada (not Greenland) • Together, a total area of almost 8.5 million mi2 • Combined population ~ 460 million • Growth ~1%/yr, = ~4.6 million/yr • 6% of annual world growth

4. Mexico & U.S. Mexico: pop’n ~113 million • Economy dependent on oil, gas, & agriculture • GDP per capita < $9,000 U.S. • Literacy rate = 92% United States: pop’n ~ 312 million • Major industries = oil, gas, steel, motor vehicles, aerospace, electronics, & chemicals • Total land area ~ 3.8 million mi2, 3rd largest in world • GDP per capita > $36,000 • Literacy rate = 97% Galleristny.com Globalmotors.net

5. Canada Canada: pop’n ~ 32 million • Economy dependent on manufacturing and agriculture • 80% of trade is with U.S. • GDP per capita = $29 - $30,000 • Literacy rate = 97%

6. World Context • World pop’nmay ≥ 9.2 billion by 2075, then slowly decline • By 2050, world pop’n projected to grow from 7 to 8.9 billion, a 28% increase in < 40 years • Average annual growth rate over first half of 21st Century will be 0.77%, lower than 1.76% seen from 1950-2000 Newint.org • Less developed regions will be ~99% of growth

7. Population Trends in North America

8. Demographic Trends in Mexico • Increasing Urbanization – Esp. Large Cities • 33% under 15 yrs of age • Increasing net migration • Decreasing fertility rates • Decreasing family size • Increasing literacy & education • More women in workforce u.arizona.edu www-cs-faculty.stanford.edu

9. Demographic Trends in US • Increasing urbanization • Increasing immigration • Greater diversification of population • Hispanics, Latinos, Asians • Increasing population growth • Increasing cohorts of 44-54, 55-65, 65+ • More women in workforce digital.library.unt.edu

10. Demographic Trends in Canada • Increasing urbanization • Increasing ethno-cultural diversity of population • Increasing net immigration • Decreasing family size • More women in workforce • Increasing cohorts of 45+ canada0123.com

11. Linkages Between Environmental Values, Attitudes, & Beliefs Five Critical Factors: 1. Shifting demographics 2. Aging population 3. Increasing education level 4. Increasingly urban population 5. Increasing internet & social media How will these factors affect public values, attitudes, beliefs, & even behaviors toward environmental issues? mayflowerpark.com

12. Factor 1: Shifting Demographics • Between 2040-2050, combined size of minority populations will be the majority in NA • Two main groups: • Asians: (esp. Chinese & Korean) fastest growing group in Canada, second fastest in U.S. • Hispanics/Latinos: 21-31% of U.S. pop’n by 2050. Granger Wootz

13. Factor 1: Shifting Demographics Asians (Chinese, Koreans): • More collective society than Whites • Pro-environmentalists tend to have “altruistic” or “egoistic” environmental concerns • Dominant philosophy emphasizes harmony with nature • May be more willing to adapt to American environmental attitudes than Hispanics or Blacks • Social/environmental values may homogenize with Whites over time Marketplace.org soenyun.com

14. Factor 1: Shifting Demographics Hispanics/Latinos: • More collective society than Whites • Pro-environmentalists have “altruistic” concerns • “Human-in-nature” view • Generally answer polls in a more pro-environmental manner • Social/environmental values may homogenize with Whites over time, depending upon immersion www.reclink.us hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu

15. Factor 2: Aging Population • Conservatism positively correlated with increasing age • Babyboomer generation more utilitarian, but more conservative resource use, e.g. “frugal” • Environmental issues of lower priority than others, such as economy & health care • Less use of wilderness areas, more emphasis on easy access recreation Outdoorafro.com Seniorcitizens-inc.org

16. Factor 3: Increasing Education • Education is positively correlated with environmental concern • Higher education linked with increased income • Higher education linked with biospheric & altruistic environmental values • More women attaining higher degrees

17. Factor 4: Increasingly Urbanized • Youth becoming less environmentally friendly, (e.g. “Nature Deficit Disorder”) • Increasingly separated from nature • May be more supportive of preservation than conservation • Limited exposure to nature may limit understanding of environmental processes • Future funding through hunting/fishing licenses & taxes may be limited japantimes.co.jp Salon.com

18. Factor 5: Internet & Social Media • NA alone accounts for 56% of all Internet resources • Social media probably most influential factor of future change • Youth spend considerable time using digital devices • Social media critical tool for future successful environmental education, campaigns Digitaljournal.com

19. One of the favorite outdoor activities of today’s youth is using electronic devices Source: National Kids Survey, USFS & UGA

20. Environmental Attitude Changes • Hispanic/Latino & Asian growth may increase altruistic values • Acculturation, higher incomes, & more consumptive lifestyles may create more egoistic values • Women modern roles may increase biospheric & altruistic values • Moderated by aging population & associated greater conservatism • Young people less oriented to environmental issues • Unclear how social networking will affect environmental attitudes • May result in greater support & political push for issues

21. In Summary • Long-term trends associated with cultural & ethnic-racial demographic changes may in the net be less pro-environmental • Gender, education, urbanization, aging, & generational trendsmay make society somewhat less pro-environmental • Net effect of above factors may be overcome by internet & social media connectivity • Rise inenvironmental concern and supportby increased internet & social media connectivity among people in NA & globally • http://warnell.forestry.uga.edu/nrrt/nsre/NAWNRC.html