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The Political Landscape to 2011 Elections and Beyond Scenarios and Response Options

The Political Landscape to 2011 Elections and Beyond Scenarios and Response Options. Godber Tumushabe Executive Director/Policy Analyst Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE) www.acode-u.org. Presentation at Uganda Danida Advisors Annual General Meeting

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The Political Landscape to 2011 Elections and Beyond Scenarios and Response Options

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  1. The Political Landscape to 2011 Elections and BeyondScenarios and Response Options Godber Tumushabe Executive Director/Policy Analyst Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE) www.acode-u.org Presentation at Uganda Danida Advisors Annual General Meeting Serena Lake Victoria Hotel February 12, 2010

  2. The NRM Democratization Project1986-1995 • Introduction of popular democracy through Resistance Committees (RCs) • Politics of consensus through the NRC (1986-1989) and the expanded NRC (1989-1995)- including regular elections • The constitution making project-reconstructing and recreating state institutions and separation of powers • The apparent commitment to respect for human rights and the rule of law • Maintenance of discipline in security forces

  3. The Undercurrents of the NRM Democracy Project • Evidence of the transactional nature of the NRM and President Museveni: • Political leaders were brought into the political process and individuals rather than representing clearly defined interest groups- no accountability to anybody but to the appointing authority. • Side-stepping of the constitution-making process to reintroduce kingdoms – 1991. • Reversal of the public service reform gains.

  4. Consolidation of Democracy Gains-1995 • Embedding governance and accountability institutions with constitutional protection and funding from the consolidated fund • IGG • Auditor General • Human Rights Commission • DPP • UPDF, etc • Balance of power between the executive, the legislature and the judiciary. • Decentralization system with clearly defined democracy principles. • Presidential term limits.

  5. Rolling Back the Democracy Gains • Onslaught on the authority and autonomy of the legislature • Inflated numbers • Movement caucus • Stifling of independent prodemocracy groups • Young Parliamentarians Association (6th Parliament) – appointment into cabinet • Parliamentary Advocacy Forum - PAFO (7th Parliament) – targeting using state resources • Rebel NRM MPs (8th Parliament) – no clear strategy yet. • Capture of special interest groups.

  6. Rolling Back the Democracy Gains • Onslaught on judicial independence and abuse of the judicial process. • Black Mamba Urban Hit Squad • Appointment of cadre judges. • Gains made through legal and financial reforms are eroded through administrative actions.

  7. Rolling Back the Democracy Gains • Amendment of the constitution without following due process • Increase in the number of ministers • Extension of terms of interest groups • Building of a political patronage network achieved through: • Political and other related appointments • Ministers/RDCs/Presidential Assistants/Commissions, etc • Creation of districts – achieving concentration of political patronage. • Rolling back of decentralization through a distorted budget disbursement architecture.

  8. The Political Landscape to 2011The Land Mines • Regime longevity and regime survival • Economic growth without transformation – Uganda’s economy is like a giant (macro-economy) standing on the limps of a mosquito (micro-economy). • An electoral commission perceived to be biased in favor of the ruling party. • Token electoral reforms as set out in the bills before Parliament. • An overzealous state functionaries-RDCs, DISOs, etc. • A motivated electorate on the side of the ruling party and the opposition – all these making violence inevitable. • Ethnicity and ethnic-based mobilization (Buganda, Bafuruki, etc).

  9. Possible Scenarios and Potential Implications • Yoweri Museveni Versus Kiiza Besigye • business as usual with more potential for violence. • Yoweri Museveni Versus Mugisha Muntu – nightmare scenario for NRM! • Game Changers: • Jaberi Bindandi Ssali-PPP, Olala Otunnu-UPC), and Nobert Mao-DP.

  10. The Political Landscape to 2011Opportunities • Increasingly mobilized and politically active population. • Potential for IPC and mobilization – could challenge the NRM to be more organized. • Funding to political parties. • IPOD Memorandum of Understanding – questions of good faith.

  11. The Political Landscape to 2011Opportunities • Growing interest by the donors to invest in the demand-side of governance. • Increased CSO work on building citizens’ demand for democracy (UGMP, CCEDU, ACODE LGMP/CBTIC. • Emerging partnerships with non-traditional constituencies e.g farmers, teachers, business, etc.

  12. Supply-Side Biased Interventions-Solutions (service delivery/democracy) come from Kampala! CENTRAL GOVERNMENT Budget Monitoring Unit (MoFPED) Parliament & Parliamentary Committees Accountability and governance bodies IGG/Auditor General/Human Rights Commission, etc Ministry of Local Gov’t FINIMAP/JAF Annual Assessment of Minimum Conditions and Performance Measures for LocalGovernments Executive Local Government Legislature Technical Citizens and Electorate

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