Fundamental Concepts in Planning for Climate Change

1. Fundamental Concepts in Planning for Climate Change Lessons from King County, WA and beyond Coastal Training Program Workshop Planning for Climate Change March 2009

2. What is adaptive planning? Planning with the understanding that… • History may no longer be a guide to the future • We must prepare for change in built, human and natural systems • We must be smart about what we build and where West Point Treatment Plant Seattle, Washington

3. “Planning backward from 2050” “Asking the Climate Question” What is adaptive planning? (cont.) “The key is to listen to scientists, not politicians.” – King County (WA) Executive Ron Sims, US News and World Report, June 5, 2006

4. The best “adaptation” strategy is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions • Smart Growth • Expanding public transit • Opportunities for walking and biking • Farmland protection

5. Initiate a climate planning effort Listen to the science Scope the impacts to your sectors Build support – and build a team Identify planning areas most affected by climate change Conduct a climate resiliency study Set goals and develop your plan Implement your plan Measure progress Preparing for Climate ChangeSuggested Steps Drawn from Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional and State Governments, by the Climate Impacts Group and King County, and published by ICLEI – September 2007

6. Listen to the science Growth in greenhouse gas emissions, if left unchecked, will have catastrophic effects on our quality of life – both economically and environmentally. Flooding in Washington State

7. Scope the impacts to your sectors(Regions are on the front lines) • Climate changes in • Temperature • Precipitation • Snowpack • Sea Level • and consequences to… • Public health • Economic livelihoods • Financial sector / insurance industry • Individual comfort • Recreation will have impacts on… • Snowpack, streamflow and water supply • Soil and water for agriculture • Flooding, stormwater and wastewater • Road and bridges • Hydropower • Coastal livelihoods • Forest health • Salmon and biodiversity Sources: Climate Impacts Group 2006; London Climate Change Partnership, October 2002; Climate’s Long-term Impacts on Metro Boston

8. Build support – and build a team An interdepartmental team charged with reviewing every • county business line, • operation and • capital plan to identify challenges and opportunities and to recommend real actions for climate change mitigation and adaptation Drawn from materials of the King County Executive Action Group on Climate Change

9. Conduct a climate resiliency study Sources of information • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • Climate Impacts Group • Historical data and trends from national, regional and local sources • Literature searches • On-the-ground monitoring

10. King County Vulnerable Facilities Inventory: Sea-Level Rise Impacts to Wastewater Treatment Infrastructure Conduct a climate resiliency study (cont.)

11. Conduct a climate resiliency study (cont.) • “Less than perfect” information • IPCC and regional projections provide a range of possibilities • Historical trends reflect probabilities and frequencies The goal is to develop locally relevant probability and risk thresholds from a combination of sources

12. Set goals and develop your plans • The 2007 King County Climate Plan… • Provides an overview of strategies in both GHG emissions reduction and preparedness • Sets a process in motion • Builds on over 15 years of efforts

13. Set goals and develop your plans (cont.) The 2007 King County Climate Plan addresses… • Climate science • Public health, safety and emergency preparedness • Surface water management, freshwater quality and water supply • Land use, buildings and transportation infrastructure • Economic impacts • Biodiversity and ecosystems

14. Set goals and develop your plans (cont.) “King County plans will guide the region to [incorporate] preparedness for climate change impacts into all major investments…” – King County Climate Plan • Incorporate flexibility into long-range planning • Develop adaptive capacity in built, human and natural systems whenever practicable

15. Implement your plan King County’s • Comprehensive Plan • Flood Planning • Wastewater Treatment Division asset management • Transportation Infrastructure have been updated to build flexibility and resilience to climate change impacts Brightwater Treatment Plant construction West Point Treatment Plant Seattle, Washington

16. Measure progress • Has awareness about climate change impacts increased? Is there support in your government / community to prepare? • Have you increased technical capacity in your government / community to prepare? • Is climate information being considered in major infrastructure / planning decisions? Is there a formal mechanism that “mainstreams” climate change preparedness? • Are your actions maintaining or increasing adaptability of built, human and natural systems? • Are community partnerships in place to enable sound decision-making?

17. Conclusion • We can and must plan with “less than perfect” information • Focus on reducing vulnerabilities and risks • Establish institutions and partnerships to deal with climate change impacts on an ongoing basis • Remain flexible and expect surprises • Mitigation and adaptation are urgently needed now

18. P.S. – Expect Surprises Snoqualmie Valley Farmland Hyak Ski Area Snoqualmie Falls Downtown Snoqualmie Storm events in Western Washington, January 2009

20. Appendix – Highlighted examples from King County • Comprehensive Plan • Flood Planning • Wastewater Treatment Division asset management • Transportation Infrastructure

21. King County Comprehensive Plan • Collaborate with local governments in the region to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 80% below 2007 levels by 2050 • Reduce net carbon emissions from county operations by 6% below 2000 emissions by 2010 • Evaluate proposed actions that are subject to SEPA for greenhouse gas emissions • Prepare for climate change impacts to the region

22. King County Flood Planning Rather than wait for disaster to loom, Sims argued… "Let's make the investments and prevent it." That investment would amount to as much as... $30 a year on a $300,000 home. It would seem to be the cheapest insurance a homeowner could buy. • – “Cheap Insurance,” Seattle P-I Editorial Board, July 2006

23. Up to $335 million to improve King County’s system of 500 levees County purchase of most susceptible lands King County Flood Planning

24. Vulnerability of Major King County Wastewater Facilities to Flooding from Sea-Level Rise West Point Treatment Plant - Seattle, Washington

25. Mean Sea Level Difference for Seattle, WA 1983-2001 1960-1978 Difference: 14.58 ft. 14.40 ft. 0.18 ft. NOAA

26. Wastewater Treatment Division Planning Response Develop strategies to manage wet weather impacts of climate change to the sewer system • Identify wastewater facilities impacted by storm surge/sea level rise (above extreme high water) • Develop and conduct GIS based methodology combining sea level rise projections + storm surge, compared to facility elevations • Identify the impact threshold (problematic at what level) • Characterize the impact (on-site flooding, hydraulic, operational)

27. Wastewater Treatment DivisionPlanning Response (cont.) • Identify adaptive strategies for affected facilities (i.e., protective berms, armoring, relocation, etc.) • Include findings in routine asset management improvements, capacity planning and facility design

28. Used GIS to identify vulnerable areas along coast line (project area in white) Facilities subject to tidal and storm impacts 40 facilities included One Secondary TP, Three CSO TPs (red/orange) Pump stations (green) Regulator stations (blue) Vulnerable Facilities Inventory Approach

29. Summary of Results

30. Barton Pump Station

31. Conduct terrain analysis of five lowest sites and West Point Treatment Plant. Raise elevation of Brightwater sampling facility and flow monitor vault sites. Raise weir height and install outfall flap gate for Barton Pump Station improvements. Vulnerable Facilities InventoryResults and Recommendations

32. Vulnerable Facilities InventoryResults and Recommendations • Conduct analysis of sea-level rise impacts on system hydraulics. • Include sea-level rise as a planning factor for future projects. • Review sea-level rise literature every five years and address in five year updates to conveyance system plan.

33. King County Transportation Infrastructure • New $24 million Tolt Bridge spanning the Snoqualmie River has been built with longer spans than the previous bridge, increasing its capacity to withstand high flows and major flooding events • More than 57 smaller "short span" bridges are planned to be replaced with wider span structures, allowing debris and floodwater to pass underneath without backing up river levels • Culverts that will increasingly be at risk of chronic flooding and road failure, and would cause destruction of fish habitat during storm events – will be replaced with larger systems not only to prevent roads from failing, but also to improve fish passage