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Andreu Ulied // Oriol Biosca MCRIT Milano, 7-8 th February 2013

TRANSPORT SCENARIOS. Andreu Ulied // Oriol Biosca MCRIT Milano, 7-8 th February 2013. MOSAIC MODEL. Modelling pedigree. Milestones between 1995 and 2008,. UTS : Union ’ s Territorial Strategies Linked to TENs (DGVII, INRETS, 1997) KTEN : ESPON 3.2 (ULB, 2006)

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Andreu Ulied // Oriol Biosca MCRIT Milano, 7-8 th February 2013

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  1. TRANSPORT SCENARIOS Andreu Ulied // Oriol Biosca MCRIT Milano, 7-8th February 2013

  2. MOSAIC MODEL

  3. Modelling pedigree Milestones between 1995 and 2008, • UTS: Union’s Territorial Strategies Linked to TENs (DGVII, INRETS, 1997) • KTEN: ESPON 3.2 (ULB, 2006) • TRANSTOOLS: TEN CONNECT (Tetraplan, DGMOVE TENs EC Proposal, 2008) • EU MM: TRANSVISION: (Tetraplan, DGMOVE White Paper Roadmap 2050, 2009) • MOSAIC1: INTERCONNECT: (7th RTD Edinburgh University, 2011) • MOSAIC2: ORIGAMI: (7th RTD Edinburg University, 2011-2013) • World MM: PASHMINA: (7TH RTD ISIS, 2013) • MOSAIC3: COMPASS: (7th RTD Edinburg University, 2012-2014) • MM3/MOSAIC3: HIGH-TOOLS (7TH RTD Karlsruhe IT, 2013-2016) • MOSAIC4: LIVINGRAIL (7TH RTD Franhofer Institute, 2013-2015)

  4. Modelling tool: MOSAIC MOSAIC assigns OD matrices by trip purposes in a multi-modal transport network. Road Network Rail Network Air Network

  5. Modelling tool: MOSAIC Modal graphs become linked to each other through connections between networks at stations/airports.

  6. Modelling tool: MOSAIC OD matrices. Contain the number of trips that take place yearly travel between one origin in Europe (NUTS3) and another one. Originally TT matrices, but now ET2050’s. NUTS3 NUTS3

  7. Definition of OD MATRICES • (Based on population and GDP growth)

  8. Modelling tool: MOSAIC MOSAIC Cost function = Cost of Travel Time f(trip purpose) + + Cost of using transport infrastructure f(mode) + + Costs of interconnection

  9. INPUTS OUTPUTS Environmentalindicators (CO2, particulates, fuel consumption) Accessibility

  10. Definition of infrastructure investments

  11. Definition of transport policies

  12. BASELINE

  13. Transport Baseline - Infrastructure development Total Infrastructure Investment as a share of GDP (per modes) 1995-2008

  14. Transport Baseline - Infrastructure development Between 1995 and 2008, • The EU has spent on average between 0.9% and 1.2% of EU GDP in infrastructure investment. • About 1/3 of available funds have been spent on infrastructure maintenance. and the rest on construction of new infrastructure. • More than 85% of investment is financed with Member States national budgets. EU funds represent 5% of investment. and almost 10% is constituted by EIB loans and private investments. • Around 60% of total investment has been devoted to Road mode. 20% to Rail and 10% equally split between Air and Water modes. • 50% of investment devoted to new infrastructure is targeted at TEN-T networks. and the other half to national networks. • Almost half of investment on TEN-T has been devoted over the last 10 years to rail. and around 35% to road.

  15. Transport Baseline - Infrastructure development Total Infrastructure Investment as a share of GDP (per modes) 2010-2030

  16. Transport Baseline - Infrastructure development

  17. Transport Baseline - Infrastructure development Alpha, beta = 0,5 New TEN-T railways New TEN-T motorways

  18. GDP Growth

  19. Population Growth

  20. Transport Baseline TRIP Generation 2030

  21. Transport Baseline - FLOWS assigned

  22. Transport Baseline - FLOWS assigned

  23. Transport Baseline - Accessibility Accessibility impacts (population accessible weighted by cost of access) ·Pi c generalised cost from j to i Pi population at NUTS3 I m number of NUTS in Europe Lambda decaying constant Baseline 2030 VS Baseline 2010

  24. Transport Baseline ROAD traffics per NUTS3 in 1000pax·km

  25. Transport Baseline ROAD CO2 per NUTS3

  26. Transport Baseline - Modal Split

  27. Transport Baseline

  28. ET2050 SCENARIOS

  29. Basic Assumptions

  30. Infrastructure Assumptions

  31. Cities 2030 • “Promoting modal-shift to rail” • More transport infrastructure investment, especially focused on rail (financed by public sector) linking large and MS cities • Air-rail interconnections are enhanced • Access to transport terminals by public transport enhanced. • Environmental regulation to encourage green modes • road pricing as an extension of Eurovignette • extended air taxation • More subsidies to rail

  32. Cities 2030 Alpha = 0,1 beta = 0,9 New TEN-T motorways (CITIES) New TEN-T motorways (Baseline)

  33. Cities 2030 Alpha = 0,1 beta = 0,9 New TEN-T rail (CITIES) New TEN-T railways (Baseline)

  34. Cities 2030

  35. Regions 2030 • “Responsible behaviour and cleaner technologies” • Euro Standard regulations for vehicles, and favorable taxation and technological developments to promote expansion of alternative car fleet. • Lighter vehicles lead to lower gas consumption. More efficient driving is favored. • Train, airplane and ship load factors increases promoted by environmental regulation • Car sharing and pooling results in increased vehicle occupancy.

  36. REGIONS 2030 Alpha = 0,4 beta = 0,6 New TEN-T motorways (REGIONS) New TEN-T motorways (Baseline)

  37. REGIONS 2030 Alpha = 0,4 beta = 0,6 New TEN-T rail (REGIONS) New TEN-T railways (Baseline)

  38. FLOWS 2030 • “towards better infrastructure management” • Increasing performance of existing infrastructure through better management and technology. • ICTs in urban motorways to reduce congestion allowing for faster city access and egress • satellite guidance allows optimal routing • revised airport procedures reduce check-in / security times • integrated EU air space management to increase capacity and reduce delays • ERTMS systems allow for faster operating rail. • Liberalisation and increased competition between airports impact on lower flight fares • Increased comfort conditions and services reliance increase the willingness to travel on rail and air. -5%

  39. FLOWS 2030 Alpha = 0,6 beta = 0,4 New TEN-T motorways (FLOWS) New TEN-T motorways (Baseline)

  40. FLOWS 2030 Alpha = 0,6 beta = 0,4 New TEN-T rail (FLOWS) New TEN-T railways (Baseline)

  41. ACCESSIBILITY IMPICATIONS OF SCENARIOS

  42. CITIES SCENARIO Accessibility increase in % respect to Baseline 2010

  43. REGIONS SCENARIO Accessibility increase in % respect to Baseline 2010

  44. FLOWS SCENARIO Accessibility increase in % respect to Baseline 2010

  45. In relation to BASELINE 2030

  46. CITIES SCENARIO Accessibility increase in % respect to Baseline 2030

  47. REGIONS SCENARIO Accessibility increase in % respect to Baseline 2030

  48. FLOWS SCENARIO Accessibility increase in % respect to Baseline 2030

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