The COOL project Introduction & Outcomes

1. The COOL projectIntroduction & Outcomes Willemijn Tuinstra Wageningen University, The Netherlands IHDP Open Science Meeting Rio de Janeiro 2001 IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8 October 2001

2. COOL Facts • Part of the Dutch National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change • January 1999-July 2001 • Joint effort by an interdisciplinary team of several institutions: Institute for Environmental Studies, VU Amsterdam; National Institute of Public health and the Environment (RIVM), Wageningen University, Utrecht University, Ecofys, Netherlands Energy Foundation and others. IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8 October 2001

3. COOL Goals • Supporting the development of long-term climate policy in the Netherlands in a European and Global context. Aspects -Stakeholder participation -->Sectordialogues -From "Future Visions" to strategic Sector Plans, making use of “Backcasting” IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8 October 2001

4. Main Features of COOL • Long term (2050) and radical reductions (-80%) - Climate policy strategy needs long term vision - Far reaching reductions are needed (structural change) - Long term visions have short term implications • User driven: dialogue setting • Back-casting approach • Three levels: National, European, Global IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8 October 2001

5. Three Dialogues • National Dialogue - 4 sector groups:Buildings, Energy/Industry, Transport, Food production • European Dialogue - 2 sector groups: Energy/Industry, Transport • Global Dialogue - 1 group: Negotiators & NGO's involved in the UNFCCC process IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8 October 2001

6. Problem in need of solution Broad scope for human choice Analyse conditions for futures to materialise Broad array of methods Stimulates creativity Dominant trends; likely futures Narrow focus on changing trends Sensitivity analysis for dominant variables Strongly mathematical model oriented Risk of extrapolating trends Back-casting vs forecasting IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8 October 2001

7. Back-casting in COOL • Constructing visions of long-term future (e.g. low GHG future or climate targets) • Construction of pathways to establish the vision • Future history writing (how do we get to vision) • Mile stones/accomplishments that have to be made • Identifying barriers and opportunities • Designing of strategies (e.g. for emission reduction) • How to deal with barriers and how to make use of opportunities • Formulating conditions • Evaluating options and short-term actions IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8 October 2001

8. National Dialogue • Sector group participants from private sector, environmental organisations, trade unions, local govt and national govt; independent chair • Each sector group met ca. 6 times • Starting point were 2 alternative “Low GHG Visions” for 2050, developed by the scientific support team • Back-casting: develop strategic plans identifying feasible options and conditions to be fulfilled • Products: • Sector “plans” • Recommendations for Dutch Climate Policy Strategy IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8 October 2001

9. European dialogue • Participants from private sector, environmental groups, European Commission, national governments • Two sector groups met 4 times during 4 workshops • Starting point were “Low GHG Visions” for 2050 • Linking long term EU sector strategies to long term EU Climate Policy • Back-casting approach • Products: feasible options for long term policy and conditions that are to be fulfilled IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8 October 2001

10. Global dialogue • 4 meetings with one group; participants involved in UNFCCC process from governments, environmental groups, industry • Long-term issues related to ultimate objective of Climate Convention (stabilisation of GHG concentrations) • Back-casting: evaluate short and medium term implications (Kyoto +“second commitment period”) • Products: • feasible approaches to consensus building on long term issues • (computer) tools to facilitate decision making IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8 October 2001

11. Conclusions NL • –80% technological feasible • doubts about feasibility without causing or increasing other societal problems • societal, political, institutional and psychological barriers • major technological breakthroughs are needed IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8 October 2001

12. Conclusions Europe • 80% reduction is technically feasible in 50 years • Major bottlenecks: institutions, prices, behavioral changes, enlarging the EU • Initial efforts have started in oil companies, car manufacturers, electricity producers • EU need a long term vision • Mechanisms for leap-frogging of accession countries needed IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8 October 2001

13. Conclusions Global Conditions for change: • A broad public awareness of the climate change problem and a belief that there are feasible, acceptable and affordable solutions. • Clear and effective global and national climate policies, providing incentives to companies and consumers giving a price to carbon emissions, both national and international. • Developed countries will have to show the way, by developing and implementing new technologies (e.g. fuel cell car, PV) and adjustment of lifestyles. • Wide scale and effective transfer / diffusion of modern technological knowledge to developing countries and integration of climate policies into sustainable development. • Some support to fossil fuel dependent developing countries to restructure their economies, develop new energy resources and technologies and to soften the regional consequences of reduced fossil fuel production. IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8 October 2001

14. Http://www.wau.nl/cool More information IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8 October 2001

15. Teamwork Bridging the gap between science and policy together! That’s COOL! IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8 October 2001