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WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (WMO LC-LRFMME)

WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (WMO LC-LRFMME). WMO South Asian Climate Outlook Forum 13~15 Apr 2010, Pune. CHOI Jeonghee Climate Prediction Division Korea Meteorological Administration. Contents. Background and History of WMO LC-LRFMME

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WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (WMO LC-LRFMME)

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  1. WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range ForecastMulti-Model Ensemble(WMO LC-LRFMME) WMO South Asian Climate Outlook Forum 13~15 Apr 2010, Pune CHOI Jeonghee Climate Prediction Division Korea Meteorological Administration

  2. Contents • Background and History of WMO LC-LRFMME • Function and Goal of WMO LC-LRFMME • Global Producing Centre (GPC) Data • WMO LC-LRFMMEProducts and Activities • Summary

  3. RCC RCC Background • Currently, LRF model forecasts are under-utilized due to the proliferation of standards • It would be quite useful if GPCs could share their forecasts with others • Linkage among GPCs and RCCs is needed to to ensure wider and more effective use of forecasts GPC RCC RCC GPC GPC GPC • • • GPC • • • NMHS GPC NMHS Seasonal and long-range prediction skills are more likely to improve if the Lead Centre for LRF MME combines the forecasts from the many GPCs. Improved skill will likely contribute to disaster prevention and mitigation, as well as to better socio-economic planning.

  4. 2005 2007 2006 2008 Status of Progress WMO GPC meeting (October,Korea) - KMA highlighted the need for LC-LRFMME. WMO CCI meeting (November,China) - KMA outlined the need for establishing LC-LRFMME. The joint ET of DPFS acknowledged the need for a Lead Centre(s) to collect globally available LRF for building MMEs (April, England). KMA, in conjunction with NCEP, submitted its Lead Centre application form to WMO (September). WMO CBS-Ext.06 (November,Korea) - The commission encouraged GPCs to provide their data to LC-LRFMME. LC-LRFMME established its data exchange system (June). WMO/KMA GPC Workshop (September,Korea) - The Workshop further defined the need for and functions of LC-LRFMME WMO Meeting of the ET on Extended and LRF (April,China). - The Meeting redefined the goal and functions of LC-LRFMME WMO CBS-XIV (April,Croatia) - LC-LRFMME was officially endorsed. 2009

  5. RCOFs RCC CBS-OPAG/DPFS/ ET-ELRF (Advisory body) RCCs RCC APCC (Research team of LC-LRFMME) Improvement GPC GPC WMO Lead Centre for LRF MME GPC GPC • • • GPC • • • NMHS GPC NMHS • GPC : WMO Global Producing Center • APCC : APEC Climate Center • RCC : WMO Regional Climate Center • RCOF : Regional Climate Outlook Forum • NMHS : National Meteorological Hydrological Service

  6. Primary Functions Functions & Goal Goal of LC-LRFMME · Maintain a repository of documentation for the system configuration of all GPC systems; · Collect an agreed set of forecast data from GPCs; · Display GPCs forecasts in a standard format → Standardization; · Promote research and experience in MME techniques and provide guidance; · Based on comparison among different models, provide feedback to GPCs about the models’ performance; · Redistribute digital forecast data for those GPCs that allow it The goal of the Lead Centre is to provide a conduit for sharing model data for long-term climate predictions and to develop a well-calibrated MME system for mitigating the adverse impact of unfavorable, or to maximize the benefit from favorable climate conditions. www.themegallery.com

  7. Regional Climate Outlook Forums SEECOF (Southeastern Europe) FOCRAII (Asia) CCOF (Caribbean) PRESAO (West Africa) SASCOF (South Asia) FCCA (Central America) GHACOF (Greater Horn of Africa) PRESAC (Central Africa) PICOF (Pacific Islands) SARCOF (Southern Africa) WCSACOF (Western Coast of South America) SSACOF (Southeast of South America)

  8. Access to GPC Data

  9. System Configuration Info.

  10. Detailed GPC System Information www.wmolc.org/Data/System Configuration Information

  11. LC-LRFMME Website http://www.wmolc.org No. of Members : 106 members from 45 countries

  12. Membership & Data Plot Membership Grades & Access • Grade A (GPC staff) • : Upload/Download; • image plots • Grade B (NMHS or • RCC staff) • : Download; image plots • Grade C (Others) • : Image plots

  13. LC-LRFMME Products 500hPa GPH 850hPa Temperature Mean Sea Level Pressure Precipitation 2m Temperature Sea Surface Temperature

  14. LC-LRFMME Products Beijing ECMWF • 10 GPCs • Beijing, ECMWF, Exeter, Melbourne, Montreal, Moscow, Seoul, Tokyo, • Toulouse, Washington • Forthcoming: Pretoria Montreal Moscow Exeter Melbourne Seoul Tokyo Toulouse Washington

  15. June July August JJA LC-LRFMME Products • Period • Monthly mean • 3-month mean

  16. LC-LRFMME Products Map • East Asia • South Asia • Russia • Australia • North America • South America • Arbitrary region(s) • Map Type • Map • Lat./Long. vs Time • Stereographic Lat./Long. vs Time Stereographic

  17. LC-LRFMME Products Consistency map Energetics SST plume Indices AO PNA, SOI, NOI, WNPMI, IMI, EAMI, EAWMI, WYI, RM2

  18. Multi-Model Ensemble Plot Simple MME

  19. MME Prediction Bias-corrected ensemble mean Regular multiple regression Singular value decomposition • Schedule • WMO LC-LRFMME website availability • : By 2010 • Ensemble members: WMO GPCs • Seoul, Tokyo, Montreal, Washington, Moscow, Beijing • Exeter, Melbourne

  20. Biased-Corrected Ensemble Mean Regular Multiple Regression Singular Value Decomposition Products ofMME

  21. Developing MME Global Multi-Model Ensemble Simple Ensemble Mean 1. Biased ensemble mean2. Bias-corrected ensemble mean Development of Regional Multi-Model Ensemble Linear Methods • Regular Multiple Regression • Singular Value Decomposition • EOF-based Multiple Regression • MME-SPPM2 Nonlinear Methods • Artificial Neural Network • Genetic Algorithm • Hybrid Forecast Module

  22. Activities of LC-LRFMME Support for epidemic control Support for RCOFs Winters of 2007 and 2008 Climate prediction for the African region WMO, IRI, SADC Drought Monitoring Centre WMO LC-LRFMME Spring 2009 PRESAO, GHACOF, FOCRAII Training Improvement of Meteorological Disaster Responsiveness for African Countries (May 2009) Climate Variability and Predictions in South Asia, Eastern and Southeastern Africa (June 2009)

  23. Summary www.themegallery.com LC-LRFMME standardizes GPCs’ data to facilitate use byWMO Members and has already received requests from RCOFs; LC-LRFMME is working on developing multi-model ensemble prediction and is engaged in technology transfer and training for WMO members; LC-LRFMME is sure to prove a valuable asset to the long-range forecast community; LC-LRFMME helps increase resources available for disaster prevention and mitigation, and for better social-economic planning

  24. Contact For more information, please contact: Climate Prediction Division Korea Meteorological Administration 45 Gisangcheong-gil Dongjak-gu Seoul 156-720, Republic of KOREA Tel.:+82-2-2181-0476 Fax:+82-2-2181-0489 C.P.:+82-016-209-3364 E-mail : cl_pre@korea.kr Website : http://www.wmolc.org www.themegallery.com

  25. Thank you! WMO South Asian Climate Outlook Forum 13~15 Apr. 2010, Pune

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