21 st century global change: Environmental science at the edge

1. 21st century global change: Environmental science at the edge

2. Environmental science now: global change • Global change science encompasses terrestrial, marine, atmospheric, and aquatic ecology with the impacts of human societies for the analysis of planetary-scale alterations to the Earth System • GCS – investigates complex interactions of human and nonhuman life across ecosystems, reflecting a transition from reductionist scientific investigation to holistic, systems analysis and synthesis of all sciences • The International Council of Scientific Unions established the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme(IGBP) as the forefront global change science conglomerate almost three decades ago • The fundamental schism dividing the most advanced Earth Systems research from application is primarily one of social organization: while systems scientists and researchers have demonstrated great progress in cooperative analysis, global governance and policy is mired in the strict, closed and short-sighted habits of dominance hierarchies

3. Earth system Boundaries • The inner circle represents the safe operating space for the key planetary systems. The red wedges indicate the best estimate of the current situation. • Three boundaries have already been crossed: climate change, the nitrogen cycle and biodiversity loss. From Rockströmet al. (2009) Nature

4. Why the name change? Environmental science to global change • Modern environmental conditions lead us to recognize the interconnected nature of human and non-human communities, of ecology and economy, and of psychology and consciousness… • Scientific study of the environment has increasingly exposed the importance of systems, networks, and interconnected ecological relationships • “The relationship of humans with the Earth’s environment has changed throughout the evolution of Homo sapiensand the development of societies. For virtually all of human existence on the planet, interaction with the environment has taken place at the local, or at most the regional, scale… A profound transformation of Earth’s environment is now apparent, owing not to the great forces of nature or to extraterrestrial sources but to the numbers and activities of people - the phenomenon of global change.”

5. IGBP Conclusions • The Earth is a system that life itself helps to control (GAIA hypothesis) • The human enterprise drives multiple, interacting effects that cascade through the Earth System in complex ways • The Earth’s dynamics are characterized by critical thresholds and abrupt changes. Human activities could inadvertently trigger changes with catastrophic consequences for the Earth System • The Earth is currently operating in a no-analogue state

7. Black Swans • Economic collapse -> the housing bubble + peak oil/conflict = economic “crisis” of 2008; the root problems were NOT corrected -> example: student loan bubble - student loans (US) now top $1 trillion; 81% of the most burdened borrowers—those with more than $40,000 of student debt—have private loans with interest rates of 8% or higher (CFPB) • What are the typical effects of economic downturn on the environment? • Global systems disruption -> the highly dependent and interconnected global system is sensitive to the increasing threats of ecological collapse, resource decline (food, energy), abrupt climate change

8. Modern Black Swans • “The defining events shaping the modern world - economic, social, environmental, progressive and disruptive - are frequently characterized as "Black Swans." • Black Swans – outlier events -> beyond the realm of regular expectations, past events are not predictive (“no-analogue state”); carries an extreme impact; “human nature (or perhaps human behavior/culture) contrives “explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable…”

9. Fukushima – old reactor, poor positioning, upkeep issues, big surprise • Colorado fires – warming and drought = pine beetle epidemic = + fire conditions

10. How do global change pressures set the stage for black swans? • …and how will environmental science and society at large adjust?

11. Addressing the root causes of global change • HIPPO -> are these best considered as separate factors or is there a root cause? What approaches have developed and are they appropriate for the conditions of the 21st Century? • Are the conclusions of the top/most relevant environmental and global change scientists being addressed by the state, by NGO’s, by society at large? • Emerging memes in economic/environmental systems - http://www.filmsforaction.org/watch/enoughness_restoring_balance_to_the_economy/ • Biology -> behavior – all of culture can be viewed as a hypertrophic outgrowth of basic biological urges and tendencies; sociocultural adaptations follow resource availability and environmental conditions when basic biological needs are met

12. We are social primates • Hierarchy versus network or Rhizome -> the two poles of human organizational power structures

13. Hierarchy demands growth • The centralization of power, control, resources, information and wealth – human nature or human behavior? • Hierarchy demands growth, growth is a result of dependency -> eliminate dependency to restrict growth of hierarchy • When did things change and why?

14. Hubbert’s peakUS Crude + Condensate - Hubbert’scalculations were based primarily on GEOLOGY without account for GEOPOLITICS

15. Hubbert Peak for US Natural Gas Production • “Our principal constraints are cultural. During the last two centuries we have known nothing but exponential growth and in parallel we have evolved what amounts to an exponential-growth culture, a culture so heavily dependent upon the continuance of exponential growth for its stability that it is incapable of reckoning with problems of nongrowth.” - MKH

16. Environmental science and Global change – where to begin? • Scientific study of all interactions of: • Living things • Animals, plants, forests, fungi, etc. • Nonliving things • Continents, oceans, clouds, soil, rocks • Our built environment • Buildings, human-created living centers • Social relationships and institutions • Applied goalof GCS:developing solutions to environmental issues

17. Environmental science is not environmentalism Environmental science The pursuit of knowledge about the natural world Scientists try to remain objective Environmentalism A social movement dedicated to protecting the natural world Real world result of separation of emotional response from natural world?

18. The “ecological footprint” The environmental impact of a person or population Amount of biologically productive land + water for raw materials and to dispose/recycle waste Overshoot: humans have surpassed the Earth’s capacity We are using 30% more of the planet’s resources than are available on a sustainable basis!

19. Ecological footprints are not all equal The ecological footprints of countries vary greatly The U.S. footprint is almost 5 times greater than the world’s average Developing countries have much smaller footprints than developed countries Do national footprints accurately represent Ecological footprints? - Nation states -> Market states

20. Importance of memetics in environmental science • Somewhere before cities in China came to this there were likely humans who objected to the environmental and social conditions • They were ignored in favor of other memes…

21. Environmental Ethics: definitions • Moral = the distinction between right and wrong • Values = the ultimate worth of actions or things • Ethics = a set of concepts and principles that guide us in determining what behavior helps or harms ourselves and others. • “…The ethic from which moral values spring is a norm or standard behavior in support of a value, and value in turn depends on purpose. Purpose, whether personal or global, whether urged by conscience or graven in sacred script expresses the image we hold of ourselves in our society. In short, ethics evolve through discrete steps, from self-image to purpose to value to ethical precepts to moral reasoning.” – E. O. Wilson

22. Ethics Environmental Ethics is a discipline that deals with how we value and perceive our environment. Ethics influence our decisions and actions. What social standards define our modern environmental ethics? Market ethics or ecocentric? Figure 2.1

23. Some questions in environmental ethics Should the present generation conserve resources for future generations? Are humans justified in driving other species to extinction? Is it OK to destroy a forest to create jobs for people? Is it OK for some communities to be exposed to more pollution than others?

24. Environmental Ethics • Universalists • Fundamental principles of ethics are universal, unchanging, and eternal. • The rules of right and wrong are valid regardless of our interests, attitudes, desires or preferences. • Relativists • Moral principles are always relative to a particular person, society, or situation. Ethical values are contextual, that is they depend on the person, the society, or the situation. There is right and wrong or at least better or worse but no principles are absolute • Nihilists • The world makes no sense at all! Everything is completely arbitrary, there is no meaning or purpose to life other than the instinctive struggle for survival. There is no reason to behave morally. Might is right. The is no such thing as the good life. Life is uncertain full of pain and despair. • Utilitarians • An action is right that produces the greatest good for the greatest number of people. • Goodness = Happiness; Happiness = Pleasure

25. Environmental Perspectives “The ideas that stem from Gaia theory put us in our proper place as part of the Earth system—not the owners, managers, commissars, or people in charge. The Earth has not evolved solely for our benefit, and any changes we make to it are at our own risk. This way of thinking makes clear that we have no special human rights; we are merely one of the partner species in the great enterprise of Gaia.” - James Lovelock • Domination • Stewardship • Biocentrism • Ecocentrism • “Sustainability”

26. Three ethical worldviews Biocentric - Life centered, all organisms have some intrinsic values and rights. Biodiversity is the highest ethical value in nature. Individuals and populations are the basic units of biodiversity. Figure 2.4

27. Fukushima: • On 11 March 2011 the Fukushima Daiici nuclear reactor suffered a catastrophic failure • The failure occurred when the plant was hit by the tsunami. The plant began releasing substantial amounts of radioactive materials beginning on 12 March,becoming the largest nuclear incident since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster and the second (with Chernobyl) to measure Level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale. • At least 300,000 people evacuated the area and as of August 2013 there have been approximately 1,600 deaths were related to the evacuation conditions, such as living in temporary housing and hospital closures

28. A2013 WHO report predicts that for populations living in nearby areas there is a 70% higher risk of developing thyroid cancer for girls exposed as infants, a 7% higher risk of leukemia in males exposed as infants, a 6% higher risk of breast cancer in females exposed as infants and a 4% higher risk, overall, of developing solid cancers for females • Chernobyl = 1 reactor meltdown, 1000 square mile exclusion zone; Fukushima = 3 reactor meltdowns; 500 square mile exclusion zone • On 22 July 2013 it was revealed that the plant is leaking radioactive water into the Pacific Ocean. This had been denied by TEPCO…. • Fukushima Daiichi was central to a falsified-records scandal that led to the departure of senior TEPCO executives. Dale Bridenbaugh, a lead GE designer, claimed that GE was warned of major design flaws in 1976, resulting in the resignations of several GE designers who protested GE's negligence

29. Fukushima update • Unexplained plumes of radioactive steam have been rising from Fukushima's Reactor Building 3. TEPCO has confirmed the reports, adding that they were not clear on the details of the sudden change at the reactor because of "lethal radiation levels in that building." • Fukushima's Reactor Building 3 exploded on 13th March 2011 as a result of a hydrogen buildup, breaching the building's containment and emitting a huge plume of radiation. The reactor itself is in meltdown. • Fresh plumes of steam have been seen coming out unit 3. These have now been confirmed by TEPCO, the owner of the nuclear plant, from 19th December 2013 onwards. • Increasing levels of radiation are being recorded on the West Coast and throughout the US • Unexplained mass die offs of animals now occurring on the West Coast USA

30. The Atmosphere,Composition & Structure • Gas Mixture – Mostly Nitrogen, Oxygen • Ozone layer is found in the Stratosphere – CFC’s and BFC’s • In general, air pressure and density decrease with altitude in the atmosphere

31. Troposphere • Stratosphere – about 90% of the atmosphere • Mesosphere • Thermosphere • Ionosphere

32. Weather • Energy Balance in the Atmosphere • Convection Cells • Prevailing Winds • Jet Streams • Frontal Weather • cold and warm fronts • Cyclonic Storms • hurricanes and tornadoes • Seasonal Winds • monsoon • Weather Modification/geoengineering

33. Climate • Driving Forces & Patterns in Climatic Changes • Long term self – regulation, abrupt state shifts

34. Anthropogenic (Human-caused) Global Climate Change • Greenhouse Gases • Carbon Dioxide • Methane • Aerosols • Sources • Burning Fossil Fuels • Industrial Processes • Deforestation • Agriculture • Positive feedbacks: methane, albedo

35. Effects of Climate Change • Temperature Changes • Impact on Plants and Animals • Rising Sea Levels impacting Coastlines • Melting Ice Packs • Possible Increase of Disease

36. The carbon cycle • Plants absorb Carbon Dioxide to make sugar and cellulose (polymerized sugar - "wood". Plants also make oils, amino acids, and many other carbon-base compounds. However, cellulose is the most common product.) Eventually, the plants die, decay, and return most of the Carbon Dioxide back to the atmosphere. • There are 3 notable exceptions to this balance • Coal - Some plants were buried in such a way that there was not enough oxygen to convert the sugars back into Carbon Dioxide. • Oil - Some animals ate plants, died, and where buried in such a way that there was not enough oxygen to convert the sugars back into Carbon Dioxide. This also occurred with some single celled plants (such as diatoms). • Limestone - includes shells and coral Some animals used the Carbon Dioxide to make shells (CaCO3) that today make mountains.