Model interoperations: Community models, models as services, and model webs

1. Gary Geller Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Model interoperations:Community models, models as services, and model webs National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting New York 8 May 2009 (c) 2009 California Institute of Technology. Government sponsorship acknowledged.

2. GEO Biodiversity Observation Network Scholes et al., Science 321: 22 August 2008, Toward a Global Biodiversity Observing System • Global network… • Of interoperating biodiversity observation systems • Collect, manage, analyze, share data on status of the world’s biodiversity

3. Focus is monitoring Ecosystems Species Genes Ecosystem services

4. Primary tasks Integrate existing observation systems Coordinate sampling efforts Fill in sampling gaps Integrate and add analytical/visualization tools Combine remote sensing and in situ data

5. Self assessment Concept is all-inclusive Very ambitious Organic and opportunistic Long-term Community-driven and coordinated

6. Status Sound interesting? • Concepts published • Implementation approach articulated • Detailed implementation planning underway • Ecosystems • Species • Genes • Terrestrial • Marine • Aquatic

7. Gary Geller Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Model interoperations:Community models, models as services, and model webs National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting New York 8 May 2009 (c) 2009 California Institute of Technology. Government sponsorship acknowledged.

8. Overview • Ecological questions • Greater model integration • Community modeling • Models as services • Model Web

9. General questions • What will change? • What will be the consequences of those changes?

10. Specific examples What areas in Burma should be targeted to protect the critically endangered Gurney's Pitta? How will water availability be affected, by annual and seasonal measures? Do we need to build more reservoirs? • USFWS: Should pika be listed as threatened / endangered? • BCC: What are the ecological and social implications of complete “build-out” in Boulder according to the existing regional zoning plan? • USNPS: Where should we burn? Will we violate AQ standards in the Central Valley? • NGOs: What areas in Asia should be the focus of conservation efforts to save the tiger and its habitat? • USGEO: What are the consequences of alternative land management practices on biological diversity in the context of climate change? • NEON: How do changes in the availability and distribution of the nation’s water affect ecological systems? • DS: How will the boreal forest shift as temperature and precipitation change at high latitudes? What will be the impacts on animal migration patterns and invasive species? How will social and economic factors change forest cover of Peruvian Amazon by 2020? How will climate change and socioeconomic factors affect infection rates of vector-borne diseases? How will snowfall be affected? How will flood risk be affected? How much will sea level rise? How will fire risk and intensity be affected? What effect will various management options have on the critical values of my park? What do we need to do to restore the landscape of an overgrazed African ecosystem? How will increased development and forest fragmentation effect the abundance of a forest-dependent bird species? How will urban temperatures in SF be changed?

11. How many of these questions can be easily answered, or explored, now? Can a resource manager easily get information on these topics?

12. Limiting factors • Science and observations • Isolated models—limited interoperability • Limited sharing • Limited access Cultural barriers are much more limiting than technical ones

13. “The need for community modeling” • More sharing / improved access • Less reinvention • Facilitates new science • Enhances integrated management and decision support Adapted from: J Famiglietti et al 2008. CUAHSI’s efforts towards a Community Hydrologic Modeling Platform (CHyMP) in the USA

14. Should we encourage more community ecological models?

15. Models as services • Service: provision of a product upon request • Service Oriented Architecture Service request Service Provider Consumer Information

16. Models as (web) services • Data provider: Standard method for data sharing • Well-known technology • Data consumer: Improved access • To people • To other models Not for all models

17. Models as services Biochemical / primary producers Physical oceanography GCMs Anchovy population Bluefin tuna population

18. Models as services Biochemical / primary producers Physical oceanography GCMs Model web Anchovy population Bluefin tuna population

19. Benefits • More sharing / improved access • Less reinvention • Facilitates new science • Enhances integrated management and decision support • Greater modeler interaction • More users  more feedback  faster improvement Web 2.0

20. Web 2.0 • Web 2.0 • Collaboration • Communities • Interactivity, feedback • “Collective intelligence” • Web 3.0? • Semantic Web  Model Web ~Community models

21. Summary • Need more model interoperability • Community modeling • Models as services • Room for Web 2.0 • Longer term: model web? • Think big, start small, start soon http://www.wordle.net/ Created with Wordle http://www.wordle.net/.