AMEU Convention Durban 16 October 2007

1. ESKOM UNIVERSAL ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY BUSINESS PLAN AMEU Convention Durban 16 October 2007 Peter Sebola Anton Theron

2. 1. CONTENTS Introduction UAP Context Methodology Results Critical Success Factors Conclusion

3. 2. INTRODUCTION Our state president, in his state of the nation address in May 2004, set a target for all South Africans to have access to electricity by 2012. Universal Access is not a new concept, been on government’s agenda since the 90’s. However, in 2004 a committed timetable was officially extended to the nation.

4. 3. UAP CONTEXT 2005 DME contracted Eskom for approach. 2006 statistics presented: - Current: 3 million - By 2012: 5 million Workshop identified need for plan to manage “Universal Access”. DME contracted Eskom to undertake the work.

5. 3. UAP CONTEXT - Programme PHASE 2 PHASE 3 Integrated Network Plan PHASE 1 Composed of 2 Stages • Long Term • Medium Term • Planning Proposal • Per Municipality • 3-year MTEF cycle • Short Term • High Level • UAP Planning Proposal • In line with Government Objectives STAGE 1 Electrification STAGE 2 Integrated Network Plan 3 months • Universal Access Business Plan • Master Plans For Accelerated Growth

6. Data Management PMO Verify with the Regions Gather & Analyse Data Handover to Electrification and Network Planning Electrification and Network Planning Compile plans, agree with regions on plans Finalise Business Case Analysis & Workshop with Regions Handover to Electrification and Network Planning Strategic Studies Input to Bus. Case Input to Bus. Case Input to Bus. Case Determine best guess growth figures based on econometric and demographic modeling 3. UAP CONTEXT – Phase 3 Stage 1

7. 4. METHODOLOGY • Definition of Universal Access • Grid electrification option of choice with alternate technologies as interim solution • Alternate technologies replaced through process of continuous improvement • Determining Backlog • All existing authorised housing units with no access • Brownfields (Infills) & Greenfields • Exact locality of backlog • Census 2001official source for backlog statistics

8. BACKLOG PROCESS: • Combination of HELP, DWAF & Census data • GIS buffer around all electrification transformers; • Count homesteads inside and outside this buffer; • Brownfields (Infills) = Inside count - Prepaid customers • Greenfields = Outside count - existing land rate customers • Strategic Studies Team adjusted results for growth and Census alignment

9. 4. METHODOLOGY Continued… • Planning Process (3 months) • Qualitative planning approach • Workshops (Demand side & Supply side plan) • Iterative process • Load & Energy Estimates • Past load research data • Function of income • GIS Platform

10. 4. METHODOLOGY Continued… Has Capacity Limited Capacity No Capacity

11. 5. RESULTS - Backlog per province 2 million households in Eskom supply area

12. 5. RESULTS - Accelerated Plan: No constraints 2.5 million connections by 2012 with growth

13. 5. RESULTS – Pragmatic Plan with 07/08 Funding 2.5 million connections by 2012 with growth

14. 5. RESULTS – Total Forecasted Demand

15. 5. RESULTS - Summary

16. 6. CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS • Inclusion of municipal backlog areas • Data update (satellite imagery) • Maintain geospatial planning platform • Stage 2 to proceed • Detailed Industry supplier capacity assessment • Understanding of REDS impact • Operational expansion

17. 7. CONCLUSION • UAP shows that although great strides have already been made, much work still lies ahead to provide universal access to electricity • Task is not limited to electrification projects only as we remember it in the 90’s but also requires substantial upstream network expansion & strengthening

18. Thank You Q’s ?