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2013 Crop Market Outlook

2013 Crop Market Outlook. OK State Extension Webcast Apr. 15, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB, for 2009-12. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB, for 2009-12.

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2013 Crop Market Outlook

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  1. 2013 Crop Market Outlook OK State Extension Webcast Apr. 15, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB, for 2009-12

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB, for 2009-12

  4. March 1 Corn Stocks Trade Expectations = 5 billion bushels

  5. March 1 Soy Stocks Trade Expectations = 935 million bushels

  6. Corn Intended Acreage Top: 2013 intended acres Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: 1,000 acres

  7. Soybean Intended Acreage Top: 2013 intended acres Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: 1,000 acres

  8. Total Intended Acreage Top: 2013 intended acres Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: 1,000 acres

  9. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  10. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  11. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  12. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  13. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  14. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  15. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  16. Advance Corn Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  17. Advance Soybean Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  18. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  19. Ethanol Stocks

  20. Current Corn Futures 5.11 5.08 Source: CME Group, 4/11/2013

  21. Current Soybean Futures 11.67 11.57 Source: CME Group, 4/11/2013

  22. Corn Prices vs. Costs

  23. Soy Prices vs. Costs

  24. 3 Month Outlook - Precip

  25. 3 Month Outlook - Temps

  26. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Soil moisture issues • Wetter, but warmer, spring • Corn demand has yet to rebound (but ethanol is starting to) • Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing

  27. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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