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Crop Market Outlook

Crop Market Outlook. Ag Expo Mason City, Iowa Nov. 28, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. Crop Conditions. Source: USDA-NASS. Prices.

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Crop Market Outlook

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  1. Crop Market Outlook Ag Expo Mason City, Iowa Nov. 28, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. Crop Conditions Source: USDA-NASS

  5. Prices

  6. Projected Corn Yields

  7. Objective Corn Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

  8. Projected Soybean Yields

  9. Objective Soybean Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

  10. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  11. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  12. World Weather Source: USDC and USDA

  13. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  14. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  15. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  16. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  17. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  18. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  19. Ethanol Stocks

  20. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

  21. Current Corn Futures 7.02 6.00 5.60 Source: CME Group, 11/27/2012

  22. Current Soybean Futures 13.72 12.50 12.12 Source: CME Group, 11/27/2012

  23. Early Prices for 2013 Crops

  24. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS

  25. Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  26. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  27. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Soil moisture issues • Biofuel and export strength • Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing

  28. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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