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2 nd OECD Environmental Outlook Presentation to UNECE WGEMA 13 June 2006 Roberto Martín-Hurtado. First OECD Environmental Outlook (2001). Focussed on problem identification, some policy analysis. Identified red, yellow and green light environmental pressures and issues.
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2nd OECD Environmental OutlookPresentation to UNECE WGEMA13 June 2006Roberto Martín-Hurtado
First OECD Environmental Outlook (2001) • Focussed on problem identification, some policy analysis. • Identified red, yellow and green light environmental pressures and issues. • Basis for developing the OECD Environmental Strategy for the First Decade of the 21st Century, adopted by Environment Ministers in 2001.
EPOC DISCUSSED & APPROVED: FOCUS OF THE 2nd OUTLOOK: • Economic & environmental baseline extended to 2030 • Greater focus on analysis of policy simulations • OECD and non-OECD countries covered • Draft annotated outline • Modelling framework • Timeline for producing the report • Consultations with OECD Groups and external partners
ANNOTATED OUTLINE Executive Summary & Introduction Part 1 = baseline to 2030 • Drivers of change: economy, demography, globalisation, consumption & production, technological innovation, material flows. • Environmental developments: climate change, air quality, biodiversity, land use change, fresh water. • Cross-cutting issues: health & environment, urban issues. • Regional implications: regional descriptions, key variants.
ANNOTATED OUTLINE (contd.) Part 2 = policy simulations & analysis • Sectoral: agriculture, transport, energy, selected industries. Main sectoral trends; analysis of specific policy options & simulations. • Policy framework conditions: institutional capacity, partnerships, implementation, costs of inaction. • Coherent policy package: pulling all the policies together, recommendations. Policy Conclusions Annexes
CO-OPERATION ANDCO-ORDINATION • Internal: EPOC main oversight, WPGSP on modelling. Extensive consultation with OECD Committees & Groups; working closely with colleagues in ECO, AGR, IEA, etc. • External: co-ordinating with other groups undertaking long-term environmental analysis (e.g. EEA, UNEP, World Bank, IPCC).
TIMETABLE • 2006 • Draft chapters • Additional environmental model components • Finalise the (economic & environmental) baseline - Plan & run policy simulations - Review chapters & baseline with OECD Groups • 2007 • Run policy “package” simulations • Finalise report with EPOC • Publish end 2007 • 2008 • Input to the 2008 EPOC Ministerial Meeting