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Updates on the Chinese Energy Sector and on the China LEAP Modeling Effort

Updates on the Chinese Energy Sector and on the China LEAP Modeling Effort. Yanjia Wang, Alun Gu, Aling Zhang EETC, Tsinghua University, China 4th Asia Energy Security Workshop 6-7 November 2006, Beijing, China. Part A: Update on the Chinese Energy Sector. Yanjia Wang.

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Updates on the Chinese Energy Sector and on the China LEAP Modeling Effort

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  1. Updates on the Chinese Energy Sector and on the China LEAP Modeling Effort Yanjia Wang, Alun Gu, Aling Zhang EETC, Tsinghua University, China 4th Asia Energy Security Workshop 6-7 November 2006, Beijing, China

  2. Part A: Update on the Chinese Energy Sector Yanjia Wang

  3. Where Does China’s Energy Go? • Basic facts in 2005 • Primary energy production 2.063 billion tce, 10% higher than previous year; • Total energy consumption 2.225 billion tce, 9.47% higher than 2004; • Coal consumption 2.14 billion ton, 11.4% higher • Power installed capacity: 517.18GW, 16.9% higher • Power generated: 2,497.5TWh, 13.82% higher • Crude oil consumption 3300 million ton, 13.8% higher • Crud oil import (net): 119 million ton, 1.4% higher • Petroleum import (net): 143.6 million ton, 5.2% less • Elasticity of energy production & consumption: 0.96 • Elasticity of electricity production: 1.24 • Elasticity of electricity consumption: 1.22

  4. Where Does China’s Energy Go? • Macro control effected, but still a long way to go

  5. Coal Plays Dominate Role Continuously

  6. Power Industry

  7. 1972-2004 New Constructed Power Plant (104 kW)

  8. ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN CHINA ???

  9. Renewable Energy Law Effected on Jan. 1st 2006 NDRC issued a document for pricing renewable energy for power generation on Jan. 4th 2006. • Biomass for power tariff = coal-fired tariff (including deSOx) + 0.25yuan/kWh for 15 years • Wind power: tendering price and lowest bidder’s price • PV, geothermal, wave..: project based approval price

  10. 20% Energy Efficiency Target • National 11th Five-Year Plan(2006-2010): Energy intensity of GDP will decrease about 20% within 5 years. • Give a quantified target on energy efficiency for the first time in five-year plans • Divide total target to provincial, large industrial group, city, large energy consumers’ target to implement.

  11. Tremendous Efforts Must be Made on Energy Efficiency Improvement

  12. Three Gorge Hydropower Fully Operate for the First Time • 14×700MW generators fully operate on Oct. 18 2006 • 14×700MW generators commissioned on Sept. 2005 • The first generator commissioned on July 2003 • 26×700MW generators will commission by the end of 2008 Sluice will reach designed level-- 156 meter • Water level before 156 meter (bottom) (taken on Aug. 8th 2006) • Water level reached 154.24 meter (top) (taken on Oct. 22, 2006)

  13. Northeast ☆ Beijing First phase in Tianwan, Russian Pressed Water Reactor, being built. North China ☆ Northwest ☆ ☆ First and Second Phases in Qinshan, domestic Pressed Water Reactor, operating; The third phase in Qinshan, Canadian Heavy Water Reactor, being built; Sanmen, 6GW, domestic Pressed Water Reactor ☆ ☆ Southwest ☆ East China ☆ ☆ Central South Yangjiang, authorized, technique to be chosen. Daya Bay, Ling’ao, French Pressed Water Reactor, operating Yangjiang 6GW, 2012 finished 40GW Nuclear Power by 2020 Weihai, 195MW Domestic Gas cooling reactor, Another two plants in Rongchen, Hai Yang are under planning Hongheyan 2GW, 2011 finished

  14. Operated Nuclear Power Plant List

  15. Qinshan I

  16. Qinshan II

  17. Qinshan III China Vice Primary Minister and Canadian Primary Minister attend the creamery of Qinshan III commissioned 2×700 MW US$2.88 billion

  18. Daya Bay

  19. Location of Nuclear Power Plants in Asia

  20. Part B:China LEAP Modeling Effort

  21. Basic assumptions • Base year: 2000 (2005) • Target year: 2030 • Dataset: AES2005 • LEAP2006 (slow calculation) • Three scenarios: BAU, NAP,RAP • Check inputs and outputs of base year (finish) • GDP adjustment in 2004

  22. The construction of new socialist countryside in China • Narrow the widening gap between rural and urban China • Improve agricultural production, living standards and public administration in the rural areas • Rural facilities will be improved • Rural consumption structure will be changed

  23. Wind power industry update • Wind power installed capacity in 2005: 1.26GW, increment: 0.498 GW (39%) • Localization of 70% • Initial investment: 7500-8500 yuan/kW • In 2020, wind power installed capacity: 30GW (finish)

  24. CDM projects in China • CDM projects will decrease the operation cost in power industry in China (doing) • Emission factor in China: about 0.8 kgCO2e/kWh(coal-fired) • CERs (Certified emission reductions): US $ 10/tCO2e • Emission reduction benefits: 0.064yuan/kWh • Average electricity tariff: 0.309 yuan/kWh

  25. Nuclear power scenarios in China

  26. Nuclear

  27. Adjustment

  28. Ongoing • Transport sector (substitute fuel development) • Renewable energy development in China: renewable energy power plants… • ......

  29. Thank you! gal@tsinghua.edu.cn

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