Foresight on new and emerging OSH risks associated with ICT by 2025

1. Foresight on new and emerging OSH risks associated with ICT by 2025 Dissemination and promotion workshop RepublikaSlovenija 20th September 2018 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU&feature=youtu.be

2. Foresight on new and emerging OSH risks associated with ICT by 2025 Emmanuelle Brun, Kate Palmer, Katalin Sas, Annick Starren WorkshopRepublikaSlovenija, 20th September 2018

3. European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA) The European Union body responsible for the collection, analysis and dissemination of relevant information to serve the needs of those involved in safety and health at work • In Bilbao (Spain), since 1996

4. Anticipating new and emerging OSH challenges Background to EU-OSHA’s work: • A mandate from the Community Strategies for OSH since 2002 • EU Strategic Framework on Health and Safety at Work 2014-2020 • Calls on EU-OSHA to “Anticipate possible negative effects of new technologies and changes in work organisation on workers’ health and safety” • A priority in EU-OSHA’s Multi-annual Strategic Programme 2014-2020

5. EU-OSHA’s work on new and emerging OSH challenges • Delphi studies on emerging physical, chemical, biological and psychosocial risks (2002-2006) • Foresight on emerging OSH risks from new technologies in green jobs by 2020 (2010-2012) • Scoping study for a foresight on emerging risks (2013-2014) • “The impact of ICT and work location on OSH”: top ranking • Based on desk research and stakeholders’ consultation • Foresight on emerging OSH risks associated with ICTs by 2025 (on-going) • Link to the development of the EU Digital Single Market, a priority of the EU Commission

6. Foresight on emerging OSH risks associated with ICTs by 2025 Method: Foresight base on scenario-building • Scenario-building: a tool for strategic futures thinking • Doesn’t assume the future is pre-determined • Provides insight and stimulates debate into ways to shape the future • Scenarios of plausible, possible futures • Help gain insights into long-term developments • To understand what decisions could help avoid/ encourage these futures • Participatory: • EU-OSHA’s stakeholders actively involved • Interviews & workshops with multi-disciplinary experts and policy-makers • Multidisciplinary • Mainstreaming OSH into other disciplines • Societal, technological, economical, political context taken into account

7. Foresight project – Background information • Contractor: Health and Safety Executive, SAMI Consulting, Futurizon • Final report to be published in November 2018 • All information available at: https://osha.europa.eu/en/developments-ict-and-digitalisation-work

8. Beside the Foresight study: • Expert Articles to stimulate debate • Published: Robotics; Additive manufacturing; Workers’ monitoring technologies; E-retail sector; Crowdworking; Performance-enhancing drugs • Coming-up: Artificial Intelligence; Exoskeletons; Social innovation Available at: https://oshwiki.eu/wiki/Category:Identifying_new_and_emerging_risks • Study on regulating OSH in the online platform economy Published: https://osha.europa.eu/en/tools-and-publications/publications/regulating-occupational-safety-and-health-impact-online-platform/view • Major OSH Overview on Digitalisation in 2020-22

9. Thank you for your interest andenjoy the workshop!Find out more about EU-OSHA’s foresight projects:https://osha.europa.eu/en/emerging-risks Let’s keep in touch: brun@osha.europa.eu Find out more at:

10. Workshop ‘rules’ • The scenarios are to provide a stretching framework for discussions • Let yourselves live the scenarios you work with and engage with the exercises • Please ask if there is anything you do not understand • You are not here as representatives of your respective organisations • All views are valid and important • No comments will be attributed • Have fun!

11. 09.10 Workshop introduction (SAMI Consulting) 09.15 Presentation on the future of ICT and discussion 09.45 Presentation of the scenarios and how they were developed 10.15 Group Exercise 1: Read scenarios and produce headlines for 2025 10.45 Coffee 11.00 Plenary discussion of scenarios 11.20 Presentation on key OSH issues (HSL) 11.40 Group Exercise 2: Key OSH challenges, opportunities in scenario 12.40 Feedback and discussion

12. 13.00 Lunch 14.00 Group Exercise 3: Potential responses to new and emerging OSH issues in scenario 15.00 Feedback and discussion 15.30 Tea 15.45 Plenary Exercise: Cross-scenario analysis of responses to key new and emerging OSH responses 16.30 Plenary discussion critical OSH issues 16.50 Conclusions and next steps (Focal Point/EU-OSHA) 17.00 Close

13. Potential Technology Developments Over the Next Decade

14. Time taken to reach 50 m users • Telephone 75 y • Radio 38 y • TV 13 y • Internet 4 y • Facebook 3.5 y • Angry Birds app 35 days Source: Citi Digital Strategy Team http://visual.ly/reaching-50-million-users

15. Potential Exponential Growth • Most people have a linear view of change • The fourth industrial revolution is taking place at an exponential rate • This means that people are taken by surprise. • This is illustrated by the graphics found at: https://singularityhub.com/2016/04/05/how-to-think-exponentially-and-better-predict-the-future

16. The Gartner Hype Cycle (2016) Autonomous Vehicles Expectations Virtual reality Smart dust Time http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3412017

17. Disruptive v stimulative tech New tech disrupts old industries but it also stimulates more new ones. New ventures are less constrained by old models so an increasing variety of business models will coexists that creates diverse risk profiles Stimulative technology Economicinfluence Disruptive technology 2000 2020 2040

18. Effect of ICT on Jobs New Occupations and Industries • Already ICT has had a transformational effect on work • Since the PC was invented over 1500 new job titles in occupational classifications E.g. Database administrator, Web Designer, Cyber-security • Also changed many jobs

19. Big Data • The availability of useful ‘big data’ has allowed technologies to increasingly take on human tasks. • The volume of global data volume is thought to be doubling every 18 months. • Cisco estimated global internet traffic in 2016 as 1 x 1021 bytes). Compared to text in all books written (1 x 1014) and text transcript of all words ever spoken (1 x 1018).

20. Internet of Things (IoT) • Where everyday machines, devices and appliances are connected and able to send and receive internet data. • Sensors can be embedded in almost anything from cow’s stomachs to windscreen wipers. • IoT market estimated growth of 20% per year • Gartner estimate that a typical family home could have 500 ‘smart’ devices by 2022. • Cisco estimate that 500 billion devices will be connected by 2030, from 13 billion in 2013.

21. Store Sensor Tag Sensor Sensor Sensor sensor Tag Tag Processing Comms Tag Store Comms Processing Store Tag IoT: Clouds, tags, sensor networksnew working locations and practices, sometimes dangerous, exposure to new substances, ingestion risks, electrical risks, hacking risks, backdoor into safety systems Self organising to produce massive data pools with their own intelligence. Big data will be replaced by biomimetic smart systems. Work will involve wide range of devices using diverse mechanisms in diverse locations, making complex systems Display Display

22. Artificial Intelligence (AI) • Technology is enabling the automation of more complex human tasks such as cognitive tasks requiring judgement(driving, clinical diagnosis, legal casework, journalism) • Beating Humans at their Own Games(Chess, Jeopardy, Go!) • Virtual Assistance (Your shopping, your PA, social insights) 100 million ‘smart speakers’ installed

23. AI and humans Value of physical/ intellectual work as AI develops Value of Community & Personal contact time Care economy, human care-based jobs Less IQ advantage, less status, social levelling Growth of arts, crafts, personal services Restructuring towards micro-enterprises More face to face interaction work that needs emotional and ‘human’ skills Greater exposure to pathogens, travel risks, less desk-based, more gesturing People may drop their guard if they become too reliant on AI warnings Potential conflict, activism, more inter-cultural contacts New cyberterrorism risks to safety systems, misinformation, complex attacks

24. MiniaturisationIngestion, terrorism, hacking, espionage, electrical risks, Need to check inaccessible places regularly may dictate redesign Small specks of smart dust can be concealed anywhere Passed on by handshake, settling from the air, in food, seeds, gravel or in clothes, stick to shoes. Air conditioning or open windows are new security risks. Human vision limit: 0.1mm Apple 2 computer: 0.008mm 0.25MB memory chip: 0.01mm

25. Smart cells Could exist in both real and virtual worlds Could be implemented using organic or synthetic biology Part organic, part synthetic, part virtual Custom DNA Molecular circuitry assembled by cell 1 micron Cells linked optically to make complex circuits. They could be airborne and inhalable or on a surface. Workers could be exposed to modified genetically modified cells designed for any purpose. Self-organising via chemical gradients

26. The body as an IT platformIngestion, rejection, allergy, shock, distraction, new ergonomics Skin-based electronics links blood chemistry & nerve signals to external networks and systems. Body becomes part of IoT. Generally reduces physiological risks due to monitoring capability. Potential use for security may introduce risk May increase stress and self-absorption. Potential for smart makeup, smart drugs, recording and replaying sensations, hyper-realistic VR… This could have many merits for productivity but also could cause allergic reactions in some workers, and for others could be distracting. Wearable layer Membrane layer Ink layer Epidermis Mid-term layer Skin Permanent layer Dermis Photo of active skin e.g. https://wordlesstech.com/smart-skin/

28. AR/VR: Active lens Laser Provide ultra-high resolution 3D displays. Risks associated with contact lenses and new interfaces/ergonomics Focusing Retina Processing Micromirror Laser Laser Micromirror Gaze direction sensor Inductive power supply Lasers Gaze direction sensor Comms & ctrl Laser

29. Augmented and virtual realityDistraction, disorientation, confusion, information overload, eye strain Upskills staff but requires wide range of new movements, repetitive gestures, new postures Example of augmented reality interface can be found at: https://i.forbesimg.com/media/video/2016/12/01/5231382583001_still.jpg Example of very cluttered retail with augmented reality can be found at: https://assets.rbl.ms/9669380/980x.jpg Image: Forbes Upskills staff but requires wide range of new movements, repetitive gestures, postures

30. Distribution drones Trip and collision hazards, terrorism, battery explosions, retrieval hazards, resistance activism, mischief Amazon just patented labels that explode to deploy parachutes for air-drop deliveries!

31. 3D printing 3D printing is more useful for some things than others. Pick and place robotic assembly may hybridise with 3D printers soon and that will be much better!

32. RobotsPhysical, emotional, AI-related, IoT, Li Ion battery explosion risks, activism Recharge/comms Drone swarms Existing robots mostly fixed with good safety protocols. Not so Androids People may form bonds with them. Emotion-ready AIs in robots may conflict with other AIs and people too.

33. Transport Powered roads, hacking, unexpected collisions, high EM fields, terrorism, poor AI open to exploitation by muggers Inductive mats can charge capacitors as vehicle passes over them Linear induction motors v engines & batteries Robotic vehicles of all types will need safety protocols to be well-designed

34. Jobs in the Future • Estimates, 65% of children entering primary school today will ultimately end up working in new jobs that don’t yet exist. (Research from the World Economic Forum) • 35% of the skills necessary to thrive in a job today will be different five years from now. (McLeod, Scott and Karl Fisch, “Shift Happens”)

35. Discussion

36. Introduction to scenarios

37. Need for scenarios • We are entering a world of unprecedented uncertainty • Policies are too often driven by an ‘official’ view of the future • They enable a wider range of potential opportunities to be assessed • They enable risks to be identified and managed • In some cases we can influence the future

38. Uncertainty Foresight Hope! Forecasts Predetermined Distance into the future

39. What are scenarios • Describe how ‘the world’ might look in the future • Possible ‘paths’ to the future, including radical change • Based on an analysis of key uncertainties/drivers of change • Societal, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political • Should be remarkable, convincing and plausible • Must have internal logic and consistency • Allow critical uncertainties and predetermined elements to be separated • Not predictions or forecasts

40. ANALYSIS Built from drivers of change IMAGINATION The lens of now EXPLORATION Importance (visibility) Time Horizon 1: e.g. Current drivers and trends V Horizon 2: e.g. Emerging drivers of change Horizon 3: e.g. Weak signals of emerging drivers of change

41. Uncertainty of driver of change

42. Axis 1 – Governance and public attitudes • The environment in which ICT-ET will be exploited • The levels of acceptance from the public/workers • The levels of leadership from governments, business and workers’ representatives

44. Governance and public/workers’ attitudes • Governance • The European Digital Single Market • Governance of ICT-ET • Regulation of new working patterns • Open intellectual property movement • Public/workers attitudes • The future of collective action • Social media • Security and privacy • Attitudes to online privacy and ethics • Discrimination, violence and bullying • Technology demand and adoption rates

45. Axis 2 – Growth and technology application • The level of economic growth and investments in technology and skills • The application of the developments of ICT-Enabled Technologies (ICT-ET) • The level of impact on the nature and locations of work; and the associated changes to business structures

47. Economic growth and technology adoption • Economic growth and investment • EU growth • Availability of investment funding • Investment in education and employment initiatives • Changes in levels of globalisation • Tax planning and avoidance • The application of the developments of ICT-Enabled Technologies (ICT-ET) • How the demand for and adoption of technology will evolve • Impact on the nature and locations of work • Virtual workplaces • Crowd-working • Gaps in ICT skills

48. Economic growth and technology innovation • Impact on the nature and locations of work – cont. • Quickening pace of knowledge transfer • More frequent and bigger shifts in skill required for work • Offshoring and reshoring • Changes to business structures • Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises • Rise of the entrepreneur • Sub-contracting • Increase in e-commerce • Alternative distribution chains and manufacturing • Sharing economy • Pseudo self-employment

49. High/Supportive Scenario 1 Evolution Scenario 2 Transformation Governance & public attitudes High Low Scenario 4 Fragmentation Scenario 3 Exploitation Low/ Resistive Economic growth and technology application

50. High/Supportive Scenario 1 Evolution Governance & public attitudes High Low Low/ Resistive Economic growth and technology application