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Global Importance of Sustainable Energy and Sri Lankan Context. Technical Seminar on Accreditation - Delivering Confidence in the Provision of Energy Organized by Sri Lanka Accreditation Board for Conformity Assessment & Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority. Thusitha Sugathapala
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Global Importance of Sustainable Energy and Sri Lankan Context Technical Seminar on Accreditation - Delivering Confidence in the Provision of Energy Organized by Sri Lanka Accreditation Board for Conformity Assessment & Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority Thusitha Sugathapala Director General Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority Ministry of Environment & Renewable Energy 09th June 2014
OVERVIEW • The Facts • Development, Energy and Environment • Solutions for Sustainability • Energy Stock • Renewable Energies • RE Technologies • Cost of REs • National Energy Scenario • Features of Energy Sector • Energy Intensity in Economy • Renewable Energy Resources
FACTS • Development and Energy ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
FACTS • Energy and Fossil Fuel • Global Primary Energy Supply by Source (in EJ) Other Nuclear Hydro Electricity Natural Gas Fossils 81% Oil Coal Biomass Fossil Fuel Era
FACTS • Role of Renewable Energy • Global Primary Energy Supply by Source in 2010
FACTS • Role of Renewable Energy • Global Electricity Production in 2012
FACTS • Extraction and Consumption of Resources Material Extraction Billion tons GDP Trillion International Dollars GDP Ores and Industrial Minerals Fossil Energy Carriers Construction Minerals Biomass Depletion of Natural Resources
FACTS • Extraction and Consumption of Resources • Eg: Oil The Energy Crisis !
FACTS • Extraction and Consumption of Resources • Fossil Fuel Reserve to Production Ratios The Energy Crisis !
FACTS • Energy Efficiency • Eg: Lighting • Water Pumping
100% 20% 14% 2% 63% 15% 6% FACTS • Energy Efficiency • Eg: Transport Standby/ Idle Accessories Driveline Losses Engine Losses
FACTS • Energy Efficiency • Comfort
FACTS • Development and Food Consumption USA Meat Consumption/Capita/Year Brazil China UK India More Meat More Energy + More Water + More Land GNI / Capita / Year
FACTS • Cost of Living • Arithmetic average of prices in four commodity sub-indices (food, non-food agro items, metals, and energy)
FACTS • Carrying Capacity of Biosphere (Overloading!) • Effects on natural cycles (Sustainability!) The Environment Crisis !
FACTS • Climate Change and GHG Emissions • Drivers of CC is anthropogenic substances and processes that alter the Earth’s energy budget • Main substances affecting the Earth’s energy budget is GHGs • GHG emissions continue accelerate despite reduction efforts - due to fossil fuel combustion industrial processes • The current trajectory of global annual and cumulative emissions of GHGs is inconsistent with widely discussed goals of limiting global warming at 1.5 to 2 C above the pre-industrial level • Main drivers of GHG emissions are growth in economic output and population, outpacing emission reductions from improvements in energy intensity • Future development pathways and energy sector will be shaped by climate change than resource depletion.
MAJOR FINDINGS • Main drivers of GHG emissions are growth in economic output and population. Increased use of coal relative to many other energy sources has reversed a long‐ standing pattern of gradual de-carbonization of the world’s energy supply Growth in Economic output is the major driver of GHG emissions The decline of energy intensity of economic output has had an offsetting effect on global emissions arisen from growth in population Source: IPCC AR5, 2014
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY • Drivers • Socio Economic Development • Energy Security • Environment Sustainability • The Solutions • Environment Sustainability • Energy Security A • Sustainable Energy • (A) Developing Renewable Energy • (B) Improving Energy Efficiency • (C) Rational Use of Energy B C • Socio-Economic Development
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY World primary energy demand by scenario • Energy Industry - The Targets • Energy demand
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario • Energy Industry - The Targets • Technology options for mitigation of GHG emissions Role of RE and EE
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY • Buildings • Evolution of energy intensity for materials Source: The Energy Report – 100% Renewable Energy By 2050, WWF
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY • Buildings • Evolution of energy intensity in the buildings sector Source: The Energy Report – 100% Renewable Energy By 2050, WWF
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY • Refurbishment to Transform Existing Buildings into EEB • Systems and equipment for energy use for existing buildings • Envelope • Solutions for cultural heritage • Systemic approach for existing buildings Organizational Aspects • Relationship between user and energy • Geoclustering • Value chain and SMEs focus • Knowledge transfer • Business models, organizational and financial models (including ESCOs) • Neutral/Energy Positive New Buildings • Systems and equipment for energy use for new buildings • Systemic approach for new buildings • Systems and Equipment for energy use • Storage of energy • Energy production • Quality indoor environment • Design – integration of new solutions • Envelope and components • Mass customization • Automation and control • Life cycle analysis (LCA) • Energy Management Systems • Labeling and standardization • Materials: embodied energy and multi-functionality • Diagnosis and predictive maintenance • Buildings: Main Areas of Challenges Technological Aspects • ENERGY EFFICIENT DISTRICT/COMMUNITIES • Integration between buildings, grid, heat network … • Systems and Equipment for energy production • District and urban design • Systems and Equipment for energy use • Storage of energy: thermal, electrical or other • Retrofitting Cross-Cutting Challenges
SOLUTIONS FOR SUSTAINABILITY • Interventions in Transport • Energy Efficient & Environmentally Sustainable Transport System (E3ST) • Energy intensity reduction by improving technical efficiency • Emission intensity reduction by cleaner fuels • Structural and systems efficiency improvement • Production and resource efficiency improvement
ENERGY STOCK • Energy Received by the Earth • Power = 122 PW • Energy = 3,850,000 EJ/y • The Resources HydroPower Annual Solar Energy Solar Energy for Wind Solar Energy for Evaporation of Water Exploitable Wind Energy Solar Energy for Photosynthesis Uranium for Breeder Nuclear Reactors Renewable Geothermal Energy • Global Energy Demand: 445 EJ/y Total Energy Consumption of the World Total Geothermal Energy(<10 km) Uranium for Conventional Nuclear Reactors Exploitable Oil Reserve Total Coal Reserve Exploitable Oil Shale Exploitable Coal Reserve Total Oil Reserve Exploitable Gas Reserve Total Gas Reserve
RENEWABLE ENERGIES • RE Technologies Solar Wind Tidal Hydro Biomass Wave
RENEWABLE ENERGIES • Cost of REs
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO • Primary Energy Supply by Source Coal New RE Hydro Oil Biomass
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO • Electricity Sector – Gross Generation Coal New RE Oil Hydro
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO • Sectoral Energy Consumption by Source in 2011 • Industrial Sector • Household, Commercial & others Sector • Transport Sector • Electricity Sector
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO • Transport Sector • Dominated by Road Transport • Active Vehicle Fleet The Issue
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO • Life Style • Electricity System Load Profile
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO • Electricity Consumption by Energy Service in a Typical Household • Life Style • Electricity Consumption • Electricity Consumption by Energy Service in a Typical Office Building
NATIONAL ENERGY SCENARIO • CEB Generation Plan - Base Case 2013-2032
ENERGY INTENSITY IN ECONOMY • Industrial Competitiveness Competitive Industrial Performance Index Energy Intensity Sri Lanka
ENERGY INTENSITY IN ECONOMY • Energy Management • National Targets (by 2020)
RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES • Categories • Conventional RE Resources • New Renewable Energy (NRE) Resources • Conventional RE Resources • Conventional Biomass • Large Hydro • NRE Resources • Small Hydro • Wind • Solar • Modern Biomass / Biofuels • Geothermal • Ocean Thermal/ Wave/ Tidal Sustainability ? Already being harnessed Yet to be harnessed NRE Targets – 20% by 2020
RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES • Grid Connected Power Plants - Progress
RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES • Challenges for RE Electricity Generation • Constraints in national grid in absorbing RE based electricity • Exceeding substation / transmission capacities • Time / seasonal variability + Lack of storage options • Non-dispatchable generation • Limitations in Peak-matching • Geographical mismatch of resource and demand • Lack of dynamic modelling / advanced forecasting tools and technical knowhow • Lack of local capacity for manufacture • Lack of R&D efforts • Higher initial costs of new REs