Dr Carl O’Brien ACOM Vice-chair & Co-chair WKLIFE

1. Way forward: data-limited stocks Presentation to the MSFD Descriptor 3+ Meeting 24th – 25th April 2012 Paris, France Dr Carl O’Brien ACOM Vice-chair & Co-chair WKLIFE

2. Outline of presentation • Quality of information • Stock status • Data-limited / model-poor • Stocks without population size estimates • ICES’ WKLIFE approach • ICES’ expert stock assessment working groups • On-going within ICES during the current round of stock assessments and advice drafting for 2013 TACs and quotas

3. 1. Quality of information – stock status • Robust quantitative assessment • Preliminary quantitative assessment • Estimates of fishing mortality / exploitation (F) from catch curves (age / length data) • Trends in catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) Uncertainty increases

4. ICES’ annual presentation to EC: September 2011 • Data-limited / model-poor • Reduced quality and utility of advice for management

5. Challenge – stocks without population size estimates The data available are inadequate to: • estimate the current population size; and • the catch resulting from fishing at a desired F. • Past ICES’ practice has been to base advice on recent average catches when there is neither quantitative nor qualitative evidence of declining abundance. MSY ? – the maximum average long-term catch that may be taken from a fish stock under prevailing environmental conditions

6. ... stocks without population size estimates continued • ICES’ MSY approach calls for a determination of the status of exploitation relative to FMSY and considerations of the stock trend. • Issues that ICES has not satisfactorily dealt with: • Data-limited / model-poor stocks • What is FMSY? • What is the current stock exploitation? • How should we manage future exploitation? Without a radical change in approach … implies that approximately 60% of the 188 (158) stocks will have no useful scientific advice w.r.t. MSY

7. Common Latin Name L (cm) max Demersal name / Pelagic Fmax F0.1 Fspr30 Fspr35 Fspr40 Limanda 37 D 0.79 0.43 0.47 0.4 0.34 Dab limanda Platichthys 46 D 0.66 0.36 0.4 0.34 0.29 Flounder flesus Microstomus 46 D 0.66 0.36 0.4 0.34 0.29 Lemon sole kitt Pollachius 87 D 0.38 0.23 0.25 0.22 0.18 Pollack pollachius Scophthalus 63 D 0.5 0.29 0.31 0.27 0.23 Brill rhombus Psette 68 D 0.47 0.27 0.3 0.26 0.22 Turbot maxima Glyptocephalus Witch 50 D 0.61 0.34 0.37 0.32 0.27 cynoglossus Question: What are the prospects for the future? • On-going ICES’ studies • What is FMSY? • life history characteristics include, among other things, longevity, fecundity and recruitment variability • What is the current stock exploitation? • Harvest ratio proxies and survey (DCF / FSP) catch curves • How should we manage future exploitation? • simple trend-based rules (survey / catch)

8. ICES’ WKLIFE

9. ICES’ WKLIFE – starting point Predicting fisheries reference points with minimal data: 1) For many species we know a lot about fish biology and life-history relationships in general.2) Yield-per-recruit and spawner-per-recruit models can be developed with simple life-history information and reference points can be defined in relation to population dynamics.3) This provides an opportunity to develop data-limited stock reference points with respect to MSY. (although originally developed for species of conservation concern)

10. Life-history based population modelsTo construct a YPR model:Size at age (VBGF)* - different for teleosts/elasmobranchsM at age Maturity at age*Recruitment to fisheryThe life-history traits are correlated, and correlatedto Lmax - an easily measured parameter. Gislason et al 2008. ICES J Mar Sci 65:514-530

11. Model reference pointsPredicted YPR and SPR reference pointsReference values decline with increasing LmaxKnife-edge recruitment to fishery at age 1 Teleosts Elasmobranchs

12. Model reference pointsKnife-edge recruitment to fishery at age 1Reference points can be calculated for specific species

13. Report ICES CM 2012/ACOM:36 • WKLIFE attempted to categorise the amount and quality of information available for each stock which is now guiding ICES in the process of identification of appropriate assessment methods/approaches. • Categorisation of stocks into one of seven basis types: • Data rich stocks (quantitative assessments) • Negligible landings stocks • Stocks with analytical assessments that are treated qualitatively • Stocks for which survey indices (or unbiased CPUE) indicate trends • Stocks for which reliable catch data are available for short time-series • Truly data-poor stocks (landings only) • Stocks caught in minor amounts as by-catch Category 7 – stocks that are part of stock complexes and are primarily caught as by-catch species in other targeted fisheries. The development of indicators may be most appropriate for such stocks; e.g. NS brill in the targeted NS plaice and sole fishery.

14. Follow-up to ICES’ WKLIFE Current work by ICES’ stock assessment working groups: • Examining the category description for available stock information that WKLIFE has provided (Section 2.5); together with the consequent categories to which the stocks have been assigned (Sections 2.6.1-2.6.3 and Tables 2.6.1.1-2.6.3.1), and providing feedback on any misclassification or stock that the WG consider has been omitted. • Initial proxies for sustainable fishing mortalities were proposed by WKLIFE (Sections 3.1, 4.1 and 5.1) based on life-history parameters. In order to make these parameters operational for advice, the WGs are the appropriate experts to agree these parameters. It is necessary to agree stock specific Lmax values and once agreed, the corresponding proxies for sustainable fishing mortalities can be obtained by reference to the appropriate WKLIFE spreadsheets.

15. Category 3 stocks • If a stock falls within category 3 (Section 2.5.3), an assessment model is fitted but only the trends are accepted for the provision of advice, the WG is asked to provide within its report, along with the trends information, estimates of potential reference points. • It is considered that within this category 3 the assessment estimates, forecasts based on them and their status relative to reference levels are consistent with each other (although not necessarily on the correct scale) and can therefore be used to provide relative management advice on the direction and relative scale of the changes required to achieve targets.

16. Categories 4 and 5 stocks • If a stock is considered to fall within category 4 (Section 2.5.4), survey information only, the WG is asked to highlight within its report the time series that should be used to determine the status of the stock and provide catch advice. • Currently, assessment methods/approaches for category 5 are under investigation and apart from considering and commenting on the appropriateness of the placement of stocks within this category there is little more that can be inferred until further stock specific work is completed.

17. Returning to an earlier slide Early indications that for the majority of the 122 stocks ICES will be able to provide useful scientific advice w.r.t. MSY Question: What are the prospects for the future? • On-going ICES’ studies • What is FMSY? • life history characteristics include, among other things, longevity, fecundity and recruitment variability • What is the current stock exploitation? • Harvest ratio proxies and survey (DCF / FSP) catch curves • How should we manage future exploitation? • simple trend-based rules (survey / catch)