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Front Range Ozone Update to the Colorado Directors of Environmental Health. Mike Silverstein April 17, 2008. Three Year Average 4th Maximum Ozone Values. *** 2007 data through 31 August ***. 2005. 2006. 2007. 2008. 8-hr. O3. 8-hr. O3. 8-hr. O3. 3-yr. Avg. Highest. 4th Max. 4th Max.
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Front Range Ozone Update to theColorado Directors of Environmental Health Mike Silverstein April 17, 2008
Three Year Average 4th Maximum Ozone Values *** 2007 data through 31 August *** 2005 2006 2007 2008 8-hr. O3 8-hr. O3 8-hr. O3 3-yr. Avg. Highest 4th Max. 4th Max. 4th Max. 4th Max. Allowable Value Value Value Value 4th Max. Site Name AQS # (ppm) (ppm) (ppm) (ppm) (ppm) 08-001-3001 Welby 0.073 0.069 0.070 0.070 0.115 08-005-0002 Highland 0.080 0.081 0.075 0.078 0.098 08-013-0011 S. Boulder Creek 0.076 0.082 0.085 0.081 0.087 08-031-0002 CAMP 0.051 0.062 0.057 0.056 0.135 08-031-0014 Carriage 0.074 0.072 0.076 0.074 0.106 08-035-0004 Chatfield State Park 0.084 0.086 0.082 0.084 0.086 08-041-0013 USAF Academy 0.077 0.072 0.071 0.073 0.111 08-041-0016 Manitou 0.075 0.076 0.072 0.074 0.106 08-059-0002 Arvada 0.078 0.082 0.078 0.079 0.094 08-059-0005 Welch 0.064 0.081 0.080 0.075 0.093 0.085 08-059-0006 Rocky Flats North 0.077 0.090 0.090 0.074 08-059-0011 NREL 0.079 0.083 0.085 0.082 0.086 08-069-0011 Fort Collins - West --- 0.087 0.085 --- (0.085) 08-069-1004 Fort Collins 0.076 0.078 0.069 0.074 0.107 08-123-0009 Weld County Tower 0.078 0.082 0.074 0.073 0.098 08-069-0007 Rocky Mtn. NP 0.075 0.076 0.078 0.076 0.100
Year 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 # of days 2 3 2 0 9 3 2 2 7 22 0 3 9 9 Days Greater than 84 ppb at Denver Metro Sites Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 # of days 6 13 16 23 8 1 10 13 24 10 4 2 4 6 # of days now includes all Front Range sites
The Early Action Compact for Ozone • Numerous agencies signed on to the Compact in 2002 • Supported the planning efforts to comply with the federal ozone standard by 2007 • Though the plan fell just short of the ultimate goal – 1 part per billion, • Numerous controls were implemented and emissions reduced • More than 180 tons/day of VOCs • More than 60 tons/day of NOx • Public health was likely improved • The Compact terminated with EPA’s formal designation of nonattainment on 11/20/2007 - Marginal • A new plan is now required
Governor Ritter’s Directive • Propose measures to reduce ozone further in the 2008 summer ozone season • Submit a proposed plan to the AQCC by September 2008 to assure compliance with the federal standard • Set a goal of reducing or eliminating ozone levels above 80 ppb • Consider the addition of elements that would further reduce ozone levels in anticipation of a lower federal standard
Planning Goals • Meet 1997 Ozone Standard (effectively 0.084 ppm) by 2010 • per Federal requirements • Reduce or eliminate ozone values above 0.080 ppm • per Governor Ritter’s directive • Begin laying the groundwork to prepare a plan to meet the new Ozone Standard (0.075 ppm) • per Governor Ritter’s directive
Some Nonattainment Implications • Region’s image • Transportation conformity • Coordination between the transportation planning agencies – NFRMPO, UFR, DRCOG, CDOT – 30 years • General conformity • Projects involving federal approvals have to undergo more extensive review and justification • Long-term planning: 20 - 30 years • NFR, APCD, RAQC, Counties, Cities, Towns
Some Nonattainment Implications • Siting of new industrial sources • New and modified major sources subject to more stringent New Source Review permitting requirements • Lowest achievable emission rate • Emission offsets • Smaller sources: • APEN reporting thresholds reduced • 1 tpy for VOC and NOx sources • Permitting/RACT requirements more stringent • 2 tpy VOC sources • 5 tpy NOx sources
Process and Timeline for Developing an Attainment Plan • Agency discussions and stakeholder meetings began Fall 2007 • Technical work is underway • Control measure options are under development • Measures will likely be proposed to go beyond 84 ppb • Modeling and control strategy development will occur throughout 2008 • A plan will be drafted and proposed to the AQCC by September 2008
Stakeholder Process for Developing and Attainment Plan • All stakeholders invited to participate in a collaborative and open process • Government, environmental, nonprofit and other interest groups, business and industry, and citizens • Stakeholder Workgroups: • Oil and Gas (VOCs) • Stationary Sources (VOCs) • Modeling and Technical Analyses • NOx • Mobile Sources/Fuels • Transportation • Outcome-based process • Stakeholders work together to set goals and ensure they are met
Elements to be Addressed in the New Plan • Complex technical analyses • Control measures to meet the Governor’s directives – a “suite” of control options are under development • Stationary/oil & gas controls • Area/mobile/fuels controls • Contingency measures • Setting of emission budgets for transportation conformity • Demonstration of attainment by 2010
Next Steps • April 2006/2010 base case modeling • June 2010 sensitivity modeling • April Initial strategy analyses complete • May-August RAQC considers modeling and strategy analyses • June Meet with NFRMPO • June-August RAQC/APCD draft regulations • September RAQC/NFR/APCD proposes draft plan/regulations to AQCC • Oct.-Dec. AQCC prehearing process • December AQCC hearing and SIP/regulation adoption • January-May Legislative review • July 1, 2009 Deadline to submit plan to EPA
EPA Review of the Ozone Standard • EPA is promulgating a new, more stringent 8-hour ozone standard • 0.075 ppm or 75 ppb • March 2009: States submit recommendations (2006-2008 data) • March 2010: EPA makes designations (2006-2008 & 2007-2009 data) • March 2013: SIPs due to EPA • 2015-2030: Attainment required (dependent on severity of the problem) Note: Potential litigation could delay this timeline
New standard: 3-yr avg. of 4th max 8-hour < 0.075 ppm Counties violating: Larimer, Weld, Boulder, Jefferson, Arapahoe, Douglas