Assessment of Progress toward Achieving Long Term Performance Measure

1. Assessment of Progress toward Achieving Long Term Performance Measure Climate Change Research Sub-Committee Eugene Bierly, Robert Dickinson, James Ehleringer, Joyce Penner, David Randall, Warren Washington

2. Outline • Summary of progress in each program • Annual and long term performance metrics • Conclusions

3. Climate Research Program • Atmospheric Radiation Measurements Program • Atmospheric Science Program • Terrestrial Carbon Processes Program • Climate Change Prediction Program (and SciDAC) • Program in Ecosystem Research • Integrated Assessment Research Program

4. Summary assessment • Program has the right breadth assuming ocean carbon cycle is provided by another agency. (Earth system includes some ocean modeling): • Climate Forcing • Climate Change Modeling • Climate Change Response • We think progress towards the long term goal is excellent • We do have individual program suggestions • We think the 2015 long term goal should be generalized to better reflect the breadth of the program

5. Atmospheric Radiation Measurements Program • One of the most successful atmospheric science programs: • Innovative data collection that provides a continuous set data over several years for testing models • Data collected over a large geographic area • ARM has worked to forge strong use of its data by modeling groups (e.g. ECMWF) • We recognize that strong ties are difficult to establish and maintain, but encourage ARM to work more closely with the Climate Change Prediction Program

6. Atmospheric Science Program • Reconfigured in 2004 to focus on aerosol radiative forcing -- one of the most uncertain aspects of the climate system • Excellent use of resources: Joint field programs with ARM program (as well as other agencies) • Scientific highlights are hitting the most important uncertainties in aerosol science (SOA, optical properties of carbon aerosols, aerosol-cloud interactions) • Continued success will require that the results of the program be integrated into climate models, perhaps by setting the goal of determining historical forcing for use in the next IPCC assessment

7. Terrestrial Carbon Processes Program • Goal is to understand the influence of terrestrial ecosystems on the carbon cycle • Strong, diverse and balanced measurement and modeling program that spans the dominant natural ecosystems of North America • Time series data (AmeriFlux and soil carbon) are providing new, important insights into the factors that influence year to year variability in C-cycle • Addition of disturbance-driven ecosystems is applauded

8. Terrestrial Carbon Processes Program • Further expansion of the program would aid meeting the long term goal: • Could expand to other disturbance-driven landscapes (urban-influenced) • Could expand understanding interactions between climate and the carbon cycle • Will need to enhance synthesis modeling to meet 2015 goal

9. Climate Change Prediction Program and SciDAC • Program is supporting improvements to climate models: • Diverse set of approaches • Expect goal of improved models and reduction of differences between observed and modeled temperature and precipitation will be met • SciDAC-supported program complements that of the CCPP

10. Climate Change Prediction Program and SciDAC • Need to continue to work towards integrating improved understanding from other programs into the models • A concern that straightforward coupling of sub-components of an Earth System Model will be difficult (sensitivity to precipitation and temperature biases) • Goal should be to continue the improvement of AOGCMs to reduce biases, while testing the sub-components to explore the fully coupled system

11. Program in Ecosystem Research • Designed to understand climate change impacts on ecosystem goods and services (primary production, biodiversity, succession/migration, clean water/hydrology) • Important scientific findings within program • Very broad range of issues • Not clear whether some of the results can be integrated into models • Both a strength and a weakness: • Could benefit from increase in budget • Might be best to reduce the diversity of projects

12. Integrated Assessment Research Program • Program is central to goal of providing policy relevant information • High quality research at the forefront internationally in connecting climate change modeling and economic theory • Must maintain understanding of the more advanced physical-biological-ecological models while focusing on improving the “human dimensions” part of these models

13. Annual goals • Annual goals should be enhanced to reflect the breadth of the program. Thus, we suggest revising the wording of LTM to better reflect breadth • Need to provide a better roadmap towards achievement of the long term goal • Explicitly state that the program will continue to improve AOCGMs with the goal of improving precipitation and temperature at sub-continental scales while also developing coupled Earth System Models

14. Long Term Goal • Old wording: “to deliver improved climate data and models for policy makers to determine safe levels of greenhouse gases” • Proposed new goal: “to deliver improved scientific data and models about the potential effects of increased atmospheric greenhouse gas levels on the Earth’s biosphere and climate for policy makers to determine safe levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere” • Impact: Captures concern about biosphere and generalizes the data and models being considered

15. Proposed Long Term Goal Success Measures • Excellent: Global and sub-continental temperatures and precipitation are successfully modeled using AOGCMs to reduce discrepancies between predictions made with models and observed data (1975-2010) by at least half relative to the state of modeling that supported the 2001 IPCC assessment and fully-coupled Earth System models have discrepancies that are no larger than the AOGCMs of the 2001 assessment. • Good: Global and sub-continental temperatures are successfully modeled using AOGCMs to reduce discrepancies between predictions made with models and observed data (1975-2010) by at least half relative to the state of modeling that supported the 2001 IPCC assessment and fully-coupled Earth System models have discrepancies that are reduced relative to the Earth System models of the 2011 (IPCC) assessment. • Fair: Global and sub-continental temperatures are successfully modeled using AOGCMs to reduce discrepancies between predictions made with models and observed data (1975-2010) by at least a quarter relative to the state of modeling that supported the 2001 IPCC assessment and discrepancies in fully coupled Earth System models are not improving. • Poor: Global and sub-continental temperatures continue to have discrepancies between predictions made with AOGCM models and observed data (1975-2010) similar to the state of modeling for the 2001 IPCC and fully-coupled Earth System models are being assessed for the first time.

16. Overall assessment: excellent • Progress towards the long term goal may be maintained if…. • Programs continue to work towards better integration • Excellent data being collected is used by the global modelers • Suggest one way to accomplish this, • is to write RFP’s with these needs • explicitly stated as part of RFP