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The impact of media access on democracy

The impact of media access on democracy. Matt Bodnar & Flemming Schneider Rhode. Hypothesis. H0: There is no relationship between media access and levels of democracy H1: There is a relationship between media access and democracy

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The impact of media access on democracy

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  1. The impact of media access on democracy Matt Bodnar & Flemming Schneider Rhode

  2. Hypothesis • H0: There is no relationship between media access and levels of democracy • H1: There is a relationship between media access and democracy We predict a moderate positive relationship between media access and democracy.

  3. Hypothesis II • H0: There is no relationship between media access and democracy in China • H1: There is a relationship between media access and democracy in China We predict a moderate negative relationship between media access and democracy in China

  4. Importance to Policy Analysis • Democracy promotion key part of U.S. Foreign Policy • Conclusive findings could suggest alternative foreign policy strategies

  5. Literature Review • Best & Wade - The Internet and Democracy: Global Catalyst or Democratic Dud? • McChesney – Rich Media, Poor Democracy • Kalathil, Shanthi – Dot.Com for Dictators • Chase, Mulvenon - You’ve Got Dissent! • Franda, Marcus – Launching into Cyberspace • Lynch, David – After the Propaganda State

  6. Defining Our Variables • Democracy: We created a variable to represent democracy by taking the raw data scores from Freedom House for a states Political and Civil Liberties. • Each state was given between 1 and 60 points (60 being the most free) for Civil Liberties • Each state was given between 1 and 40 points (40 being the most free) for Political Liberties • Our Data for democracy therefore ranges from 1 (being the absolute least free) to 100 (being the most free possible) • Internet Access: We used the World Bank’s World Development Indicators to create a variable measuring Internet Users per 1000 people. • Media Access: We attempted to gather data regarding Newspapers per capita and the percentage of Televisions per household from the World Development Indicators, but the data was sparse and lacking in several areas. • Censorship: We used the Freedom House Freedom of the Press indicators to create a censorship scale ranging from 1(no censorship at all) to 100 (complete censorship). • GDP Per Capita: We used World Bank Data to compile a list of GDP per capita for each nation using base year 2000.

  7. Variable Interaction

  8. Datasets • WDI datasets • Newspapers per capita • % of households with TV • Internet users pr. 1000 capita • Freedom House raw data scores for • Freedom of the press • Democracy (CL and PR) • World.sav • CIA World Factbook

  9. Methodology • Unit of Analysis: Nations • Research Design: Cross Sectional • Multiple Regression Analysis • Control variables: Censorship & GDP Per Capita • Qualitative research on China, with small quantitative comparison • N = 110

  10. Distribution of Internet access

  11. Distribution of TV access

  12. Regression Results – Internet Access

  13. Regression Results Graphically

  14. Regression with control for GDP Per Capita

  15. Regression with control for GDP Per Capita and Censorship

  16. Case Study of China

  17. Case Study of China

  18. China Case Study

  19. China Case Study

  20. Case Study – Qualitative Analysis • Has the Internet fostered Democracy in China? • Chinese Government Tactics • Censorship – Great Firewall of China • Corporate Help – Google, Yahoo, Wikipedia • Dissidents • Short timeframe • Ambiguous Results

  21. Problems with data • Countries with 100 can’t improve democratically within FH rankings • Internet Disproportionately weighted • No data for newspapers or cell phones • Small N for TV access • Censorship a very ambiguous and biased concept. No measurement for self censorship

  22. Conclusions • Accept H0: No relationship on a global level • Previous studies disguised the type of information provided • Very Complex Issue – intervening variables, simultaneity • Short term vs. long term effect • Accept H0: No clear uniform relationship • Taiwan and Hong Kong has and will benefit more than mainland China • Government has been very efficient in blocking damaging information to the general public while dissidents use media internally

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