Identifying Trends and Closing Conceptual Gaps

1. Identifying Trends and Closing Conceptual Gaps December 2010 Limmud Conference

2. The Strategy of Strategic Surprise Strategic Situational Irrelevant 'interpretive conceptual system' in terms of understanding the individual relative to his environment An event in which information was lacking, the information didn’t arrive in time or wasn’t properly analyzed In order to deal with these situations, one needs to undergo fundamental learning / change one’s personal perception (Mindset)

3. The Creation of Strategic Surprise Change in priorities and values Stage 4: Fundamental Learning Strategic Surprise Situational (Technical) response to Fundamental (Adaptive) Problem Stage 3: Denial Strategic Surprise Strategic Surprise Difference that makes the difference Stage 2: Incubation Copying without translating New trend in the neighborhood? Stage 1: Relevancy Relevancy Gap

4. Added Exposure to Strategic Surprises Number of Actors Power of States Pace of Change World Full of Irreducible Unknowns 'once in a hundred years' events every few months. “most marked feature is a departure from the idea that our world can be reduced to simple models, that the real dynamics of the world make prediction nearly impossible” (Joshua Cooper Ramo)

5. Identifying Relevancy Gaps: Hedgehogs & Foxes The more complex a problem, the less relevant Hedgehogs are 'Hedgehogs' have expertise in a defined area, and constantly try and present things as fitting or not fitting into their system of beliefs. (Isaiah Berlin) 'Foxes' evaluate the meaning of things by moving between areas of knowledge, understanding reality as constantly changing. (Isaiah Berlin) balance of power considerations Globalization + Spread of Free markets Great Man Theory of History Clash of Civilizations Actor Dispensability Thesis While foxes don’t give great sound-bites, they’re far more likely to get things right.

6. Community Trends Choosing to be Jewish (Heretical Imperative) Man’s Search for Personalized Meaning Instant Gratification Technology, Authority and the Role of Education

7. Closing the Gap: Adaptive Work Leadership is an activity to mobilize adaptation (Ron Heifetz) Solution: Clear Solution: Requires Learning Problem: Technical Problem: Adaptive Responsibility: Authority Figure Responsibility: Constituency

8. Closing the Gap: Adaptive Work Principles of Leadership Mobilizing Adaptive Work Identifying Adaptive Challenges Which challenges face the Community? Keep Distress Within Productive Range Direct Attention to Ripening Issue Who are the Stakeholders? Return Work to Stakeholders

9. Work Avoidance People fail to adapt because of the stress provoked by the problems and the changes it demands. They resist the pain, anxiety or conflict that accompanies a sustained interaction with its situation. Holding on to past assumptions, blaming authority, scapegoating, externalizing the enemy, denying the problem, jumping to conclusions or finding a distracting issue may restore stability and feel less stressful than facing and taking responsibility for a complex challenge. These patterns of response to disequilibrium are called “work avoidance mechanism.”

10. Keeping Distress Tolerable To orchestrate conflict effectively think of yourself as having your hand on the thermostat and always watching for signals that you need to raise or lower the temperature in the room. Your goal is to keep the temperature – that is, the intensity of the disequilibrium created by discussion of the conflict – high enough to motivate people to arrive at creative next steps and potentially useful solutions, but not so high that it drives them away or makes it impossible for them to function. The harder the adaptive work, stronger holding environment must be to contain divisive forces