Health Impacts of Climate Change

1. Health Impacts of Climate Change “ Climate Change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st Century” Lancet, 2009

2. Doctors for the Environment, Australia (DEA) is a voluntary, doctor’s organisation, formed in 2001, with members in all States and Territories. The aim of the organisation is to inform and educate the public, the medical profession and policy makers about the relationships between health and the environment. Our priority issue at the present time is the health effects of climate change. DEA is a member of the International Society of Doctors for the Environment. • Scientific committee: Prof. Stephen Boyden AM Prof. Peter Doherty AC Prof. Bob Douglas AO Prof. Frank Fenner AC Prof. Michael Kidd AM Prof. Steve Leeder AO Prof. Ian Lowe AO Prof. Tony Mc Michael Prof. Peter Newman Sir Gustav Nossal AC Prof. Hugh Possingham Prof. Lawrie Powell AC Prof. Fiona Stanley AC Norman Swan Prof. David Yencken AO

3. Overview: • Science of climate change • Health effects of climate change • Case for urgent action • Solutions

6. Climate Science 101 • The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere causes the trapping of heat from the sun hence a rise in the temperature of the earth’s climate • Greenhouse gases include CO2, water vapour, methane and nitrous oxide • The increase in temperature is proportional to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere • CO2 concentration has increased from: • Pre-industrial- 280ppm • 1958- 316ppm • 2008- 387ppm • Average global temperature rise so far 0.76 deg C

7. The Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse gases in atmosphere Solar energy passes through Radiant heat is trapped Source: Williams DL. Global Warming: The Greatest Threat. Alaska Conservation Solutions, 2006.

8. The Earth is Warming Brohan 2006

9.  CO2 =  temperature • The increase in temperature is proportional to the increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere

10. CO2 increase over time IPCC 1990

11. Source: IEA; Department of Climate Change Per capita emissions due to electricity, 2005

12. Current impacts at 0.76 deg rise • Arctic: • The floating sea-ice is headed towards rapid summer disintegration as early as 2013, a century ahead of the IPCC projections • “albedo flip” as described by James Hansen (NASA) leads to a positive feedback loop as the arctic sea warms • Greenland ice sheet melt and thawing of permafrost predicted for this century Revkin, 2007 Hansen et al, 2007 Hansen, 2006 Westbrook et al, 2009

13. Ice-free summer as early as 2013? 2005 Beck,A. 2007

14. Current impacts at 0.76 deg rise Current impacts at 0.76 deg rise • Victoria: • Hottest day ever recorded 7th Feb. 2009 • Driest start to year for 150years 2009 • Record 12 year low rainfall • Fire danger rating for Victoria on 7th Feb. 2009 ranged between 120-190 (previous record was Black Saturday in 1939 of 100) where 100=catastrophic rating • 374 deaths from heat stress in first week of Feb. David Karoly. 16/2/09 January 2009 heatwave in Victoria report-Chief Health Officer, Victoria.

15. Water storages at lowest point ever

16. How Doctors assess risk and make decisions: Scenario One • Hx:25 yo male presents with 24hr history of central abdominal pain localizing to RIF. Associated with anorexia, nausea, fever • Ex: T 37.5 deg C pr 120 rebound tenderness over Mc Burney’s point • Ix: high wcc & crp • Dx: appendicitis

17. Scenario Two • Hx: increasing frequency of severe weather events, changing patterns of plant and animal behaviour • Ex: loss of polar sea ice, global glacial retreat, increase in earth’s temperature, rising sea levels and acidification of ocean • Ix: atmospheric CO2 increasing at rate proportional to increase in earth’s temperature • Dx: climate change Anthropogenic climate change is now incontrovertible Lancet

18. Comparison of risks

19. Health effects of climate change • Changing patterns of disease • Water and food insecurity • Vulnerable shelter and human settlements • Extreme climate events • Population migration • These effects are both direct and indirect

20. Changing patterns of disease • Vector borne disease increases with temperature • temperature is  vector reproduction; parasite development and bite frequency • increase in malaria, tick-borne encephalitis and dengue fever • Heatwaves increase death due to heat stress • ie. Europe summer 2003- 70,000 deaths Lancet, 2009 Mosquito abundance increases by a factor of 10 for every 0.1 deg C increase in temperature

21. Water and food insecurity • Famine: • Climate change is likely to compound existing food insecurity Food emergencies have increased from 15/year in 80’s to >30/year : UN World Food Program • Corn and soybean yields in USA reduced by 17% for every 1 deg C temp rise • Drought: • 1/6 world population live in glacial fed water catchments which are vulnerable to climate change • increased water temp and reduced water flow lead to reduced water quality Lancet, 2009

23. Vulnerable Shelter and Human Settlements • Due to abandonment of flooded or arid land • United Nations 2006 revision of population predicts movement from climate affected lands in developing countries to developed countries to be 2.3 million every year after 2010 • Number of climate change related migrants expected to be 100’s of millions by 2050

25. Extreme climate events • Floods • Related infectious diseases ie. cholera, dengue, malaria, leptospirosis increased after hurricane in Nicuragua in 1998 • Reduction in water quality and sanitation • Loss of property, farmlands, direct loss of life • Psychological trauma • Cyclones and hurricanes • Direct loss of life, property, farmlands • Reduction in water quality and sanitation • Psychological trauma • Bushfires • Direct loss of life, property, farmlands • Psychological trauma • Heatwaves

26. Psychological effects • Direct • Grief as reaction to loss; PTSD • Indirect • Depression, anxiety in the face of dire predictions

27. Moral issues • Climate change raises the moral issues of : • Intergenerational justice • Health equity ie. those responsible for historical CO2 (rich) are less likely to suffer than the poor “ On a balance of probabilities, the failure of our generation on climate change mitigation would lead to consequences that would haunt humanity until the end of time.” Garnaut, 2008

28. Health impacts of climate change Density equalling cartogram. WHO regions scaled according to estimated mortality (per million people) in the year 2000, attributable to the climate change that occurred from 1970s to 2000. Patz et al, in press

29. Emissions of greenhouse gases Density equalling cartogram. Countries scaled according to cumulative emissions in billion tonnes carbon equivalent in 2002. Patz et al

30. Solutions • Mitigation: • move to post carbon economy • Draw down CO2 to achieve a “safe climate” with a CO2 of 350ppm • Adaptation • Improve education amongst doctors of current climate science, health impacts and solutions • Move to develop skill share and educational relationships with the developing world

31. Primary Health Care Strategies Blashki McMichael Karoly 2007

32. Danger

33. Opportunity

34. Solutions • Our capacity to respond to the negative effects of climate change relies on the generation of reliable, relevant and current information “There’s a call for a public health movement that frames the threat of climate change for humankind as a health issue.” Lancet2009

35. Video... • There is also a fantastic video relating to the effects of climate change available for viewing or dowload - Click here after reading directions below.There are two versions available, one for Windows (the .wmv file) and one for Mac (the .mp4 file). To download simply right-click the appropriate version and select "Download linked file as..." (or an equivalent command).