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This briefing discusses the evolution of the National Weather Service's concept of operations, highlighting the need for better performance during high-impact events and the utilization of existing resources to provide more effective services. It also addresses NOAA's vision and mission goals, as well as the key operational shifts and guiding principles for change.
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Information BriefingNational Weather ServiceServices EvolutionEvolving Our Concept of OperationsOctober 24, 2006Ben WeigerChief, Hydrologic Services Branch
Overview • CONOPS: Why are we doing this? • NOAA Vision & Mission Goals • NWS Services Evolution • The Way Forward—A “Phase of Discovery” • Closing Thoughts
CONOPS: Why are we doing this? • So we can do more… • Within the NWS • With other parts of NOAA • With other agencies • Through more effective use of existing resources • and better…. • Better performance during high impact events • Through, better research, better outreach, better training, better knowledge of impacts
NOAA Vision & Mission Goals Vision: • An informed society that uses a comprehensive understanding of the role of the oceans, coasts, and atmosphere in the global ecosystem to make the best social and economic decisions. Mission Goals: • Protect, Restore, and Manage the Use of Coastal and Ocean Resources Through an Ecosystem Approach to Management • Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond • Serve Society’s Needs for Weather and Water Information • To Protect Life and Property, and provide support to the Security of our Homeland • Support the Nation’s Commerce with Information for Safe, Efficient, and Environmentally Sound Transportation • Provide Critical Support for NOAA’s Mission
NWS Services EvolutionNWS of the Future • NWS 2015 Vision for Services Evolution • Provide superior, focused response for high-impact events while maintaining excellence in other important services • Strengthen partnerships with all sectors • Create capacity (more time) to support high-impact events and integrate NOAA environmental information services (e.g., water quality forecasting) • Accelerate science & technology infusion • Enhance employee work life
NWS Services EvolutionCase for Change • Goal: Maintain and improve our status as the standard for the weather enterprise by remaining relevant in a rapidly evolving digital age. • Meeting the increasing demands for services in the digital age and beyond • Applying evolving science and technology • Working even more effectively
NWS Services EvolutionGuiding Principles for Change • Maintain 122 Weather Forecast Offices. ( No change in field office structure.) • There will be no degradation of service. • We will provide equitable services across the Nation. • We will continue to be transparent in our planning. • We will demonstrate operability, performance, effectiveness, and efficiency before committing to changes.
NWS Services Evolution Key Operational Shifts Current Operations Future Operations 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Producers of Our Forecasts Static Resource Allocation Phenomenon-Based Forecasts Product-Based Services Coordination Weather-Centric Deterministic (best forecast) Customers of Our Expertise Dynamic Resource Allocation Impact-Based Forecasts Decision Support Services Collaboration Earth System Science-Based Probabilistic (uncertainty range)
The Way ForwardA “Phase of Discovery” CONOPS Team Report • Develop and prototype Clustered-Peer CONOPS • Clustered-Peer CONOPS • Provide a platform for key operational shifts • Field offices operate as equals within a cluster • Cluster delivers environmental information and decision support services focused on high-impact events • Basic forecast suite is provided without interruption within the cluster and centers • Cluster Management Team (WFOs, RFCs, National Centers) allocate their resources via their weather expertise and numerical guidance • WFOs have evolved to the current state where they work as a team to dynamically shift workload to get the job done—Clusters are capable of doing the same thing across County Warning Area boundaries Corporate Board agreed to pursue recommendations
The Way ForwardMeeting Our Customer’s Needs What do our customers want? Deploy Incident Meteorologists For High-Impact Events
The Way ForwardA “Phase of Discovery” CONOPS Prototype Team Activities • NOAA’s Boulder (ESRL/GSD) & NWS (CRH) Laboratory • Testing AWIPS and network performance • Expanded domains • Enhanced collaboration • Resource allocation tools • Clustered-peer field prototype plan to be briefed to Corporate Board November • Field prototype expected to begin in CY 2007 • End state determined by: • Complexity of plan • Collective bargaining agreement requirements • Systems capabilities (AWIPS)
The Way ForwardA “Phase of Discovery” Issues Being Assessed in Prototype • Test Key Operational Shifts • Capabilities required (tools and techniques) • Communications tools • Domain size (current limitation is 120,000 grid points) • Governance of cluster • Impacts (internal and external) • Customer needs met? • Effect on staff (quality of work life, ability to perform complex tasks across boundaries) • Improved public planning and preparedness? • Increased time for training?
Prototype Clusters “Great Lakes” “Pacific Northwest” “Great Plains” “Southeast Coast” The Way ForwardA “Phase of Discovery”
Closing Thoughts • National Weather Service 2015 • NWS Services Evolution • Key Operational Shifts • New Clustered-Peer CONOPS • The Way Forward “A Phase of Discovery” • Laboratory & Prototyping • Milestones & Metrics (measure success and failure) Study, Plan, Implement, Evolve