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FIN 30220: Macroeconomic Analysis

FIN 30220: Macroeconomic Analysis. Labor Markets. Of the 317 million people that make up the US population, approximately 246 million are considered by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to be “eligible” to work. Eligible Civilian Population 246 Million.

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FIN 30220: Macroeconomic Analysis

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  1. FIN 30220: Macroeconomic Analysis Labor Markets

  2. Of the 317 million people that make up the US population, approximately 246 million are considered by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to be “eligible” to work. Eligible Civilian Population 246 Million US Population 317Million • Under 16 • On Active Military Duty • Inmates in Penal or Mental Institutions Non-Eligible Population 71 Million

  3. The US labor market is a very dynamic market. The 246 million Americans currently counted as part of the US eligible population are in a constant state of motion between three possible states 10M Unemployment Rate (UR) = = 6.4% 155M Employed 145 Million 155M Participation Rate (PR) = = 63% 246M 145M Employment Rate (ER) = = 59% Not In Labor Force 91 Million 246M Unemployed 10 Million ER UR = 1 - PR Source: Household Survey

  4. The Natural Rate, or NAIRU (Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) refers to what’s “normal” in the labor market. Cyclical Unemployment “Natural Rate” If unemployment is at the “natural rate”, then the inflation rate should be stable.

  5. Note that the “Natural Rate” of unemployment is not zero! A healthy labor market should have some turnover as workers look for better jobs. 5% Frictional Unemployment: Workers in the process of finding a job 1.5% Structural Unemployment: Workers whose skills are no longer needed due to industry evolution. These people generally require retraining 0%

  6. A better measure of the labor market is simply the total number of people working Total Change From Previous Month Recession Recession Recession

  7. What’s a “good” employment number? Labor Market US Population 300 Million Every month, people retire, go back to school, etc. Our population growth rate averages around 1% per year 250,000 per month 100,000 per month To maintain a constant unemployment rate, we need to create approximately 150,000 jobs per month!!

  8. The employment figures generally coincide with the unemployment rate, but not always Unemployment Rate Change in Employment Unemployment Rate

  9. Consider two economies. Both have a labor force equal to 100. In economy A, 10 people lose their jobs every month (but find a job the following month). In Economy B, 10 people get laid off every 3 months, but take three months to find work. A 10 10 10 10 10 10 January February March April May June July B 10 10 At any point in time, both economies have identical unemployment rates of 10% Duration measures the average length of an unemployment spell. Economy A has a duration of 1 month. Economy B has a duration of 3 months.

  10. Suppose that we have the following data. Labor Force = 200M January February March April May June 3 Million 24 Weeks 3 Million 3.5 Million 12 Weeks 3.5 Million 12 Weeks 7 Million 2.5 Million 8 Weeks 2.5 Million 8 Weeks 2.5 Million 8 Weeks + 7.5 Million 17.5 Million 9M Unemployment Rate = = 4.5% 200M 3M 7M 7.5M + + Average Duration = 24 12 8 = 12.3 weeks 17.5M 17.5M 17.5M

  11. Length of unemployment spells in the US

  12. However, average and median duration has been rising! Mean = 39 weeks Median = 22 weeks

  13. Production Functions measure the relationship between inputs and output Labor Output Capital (Fixed in Short Run) Productivity (Exogenous) Typically the production function used is Cobb-Douglas Capital’s Share of Income Labor’s Share of Income

  14. Production in the short run – capital is fixed The Marginal Product of Labor (MPL) measures the change in production associated with a small change in employment MPL=2 2 10 MPL=10 As labor increases (given a fixed capital stock), labor productivity declines!! 1 1

  15. Production in the short run – capital is fixed or MPL=4 We also assume that the marginal product of labor is positively related to increases in either productivity and capital MPL=2 MPL=14 MPL=10

  16. We assume that firms are perfectly competitive. They choose labor hours to maximize profits Wage Rate Price of Capital Labor Costs Capital Costs (Fixed in Short Run) Price of Output Total Output

  17. The best choice for labor can be found by taking looking at changes in both revenues and costs at the margin. A little rearranging gives us the following condition Real Wage Qualitatively, this tells us we would expect to see a strong positive correlation between productivity and wages

  18. Example: For the production function given above, at a real wage of 8, 4 hours of labor are hired

  19. Labor demand records the hiring decision (# of hours) chosen by the firm at every real wage Real Wage Hours of Labor

  20. Altering the real wage (holding production values fixed) allows us to trace out the labor demand curve Real Wage Hours of Labor

  21. Altering the production values (holding the real wage fixed) allows us to shift the labor demand curve Real Wage Hours of Labor

  22. Households have utility functions that describe the relationship between choices and happiness Labor Hours Utility Time Endowment Consumption • We only have a couple requirements for utility functions • Utility is increasing in consumption (i.e. we like to buy things!) • Utility is decreasing in labor (we don’t like to work) • Utility exhibits diminishing marginal utility (the more we have of anything, the less it is worth to us at the margin)

  23. Indifference curves show various combinations of consumption and leisure that provide the same level of utility More is always better! C A B

  24. The marginal rate of substitution (MRS) measures the amount of consumption you are willing to give up in order to acquire a little more leisure How much consumption do you require to give up one hour of leisure (i.e. work an extra hour)?

  25. Given the assumption of diminishing marginal utility, MRS varies predictably as consumption/leisure changes If you have a lot of consumption relative to leisure, then leisure is much more valuable than consumption - MRS is high! If you have a lot of leisure relative to consumption, then leisure is much less valuable than consumption - MRS is low! MRS = 12 MRS = 2

  26. Households take wages and prices as given.Further, house possess some non-labor income (i.e. asset income).Households maximize utility subject to an income constraint. Note that the choice for labor will determine the level of consumption possible.

  27. Suppose that the hourly wage is $10 and that consumption goods cost $2. Further, you have $20 of non-labor income. Assume you have 1 hour of time available. L = 1: you work as much as you can 15 10 0 1 L = 0: You don’t work at all

  28. Recall that maximizing anything requires equating costs and benefits at the margin How much is an extra unit of consumption worth to you? How unhappy does working an extra hour make you?? How much extra consumption will an extra hour of work buy you? (i.e. the real wage) A little rearranging….

  29. At the optimum choice for labor, the slope of the indifference curve is equal to the slope of the budget constraint. Consumption Real Wage 15 10 0 1 Hours of Leisure Hours of Labor

  30. Suppose the wage rate rises to $16 (non-labor income is still $20 and the price level is still $2). Does labor supply increase of decrease? Substitution Effect: As the real wage increases, the price of leisure has increased relative to consumption – buy more consumption, less leisure. Real Wage 18 Substitution Effect: Income Effect: Income Effect: As the real wage increases, your purchasing power goes up. Buy more of both goods (consumption and leisure) 10 0 Hours of Leisure Hours of Labor

  31. We typically assume that the substitution effect is dominant…a rise in the real wage increases hours of labor supplied. Real Wage 18 10 0 Hours of Leisure Hours of Labor

  32. Suppose that the hourly wage is still $10 and that consumption goods cost $2. However, Non-labor income increases to $40. 25 Real Wage 15 10 0 Hours of Leisure Hours of Labor

  33. An equilibrium in the labor market is defined as a real wage where labor supply equals labor demand (i.e. the labor market clears) Note: This equilibrium assumes fixed values for productivity (A), capital (K) and non-labor income (NLI)

  34. Note that once employment is known (capital is taken as fixed in the short run), output can be determined 1 Labor Markets 2 Production Function

  35. We need to make assumptions about the evolution of productivity. Let’s suppose that productivity evolves according to an autoregressive process Productivity shock Persistence parameter

  36. Suppose that the economy is hit by a positive productivity shock that is perceived to be temporary For a given level of employment and capital, production increases Rise in productivity

  37. Suppose that the economy is hit by a positive productivity shock that is perceived to be temporary With a rise in productivity, at the initial real wage, demand for labor rises Non-Labor income is (relatively) unaffected Rise in productivity

  38. Suppose that the economy is hit by a positive productivity shock that is perceived to be temporary Non-Labor income is (relatively) unaffected Rise in productivity The rise in labor demand increases employment and real wages

  39. An increase in productivity that is permanent will have a larger effect on non-labor income, and create a decrease in labor supply Non-Labor income increases Rise in productivity The drop in labor supply creates a larger increase in the real wage and a smaller effect on output and employment

  40. Labor Markets and the business cycle Given the mechanics of the labor market, what relationships would we expect to see between productivity, wages, employment, and output? Just the facts ma’am.

  41. GDP vs. Employment (% Deviation from trend) Correlation = .84

  42. GDP vs. Productivity (% Deviation from trend) Correlation = .66

  43. GDP vs. Real Wages (% Deviation from trend) Correlation = .18

  44. The low correlation between real wages and GDP suggests that labor supply is very elastic Random productivity fluctuations in labor productivity cause large employment movements, but very little change in the real wage

  45. Example: Oil Price Shocks in the 1970’s 1979 Iranian Revolution (Temporary Shock) Dollars per Barrel 1973 Arab Oil Embargo (Permanent Shock)

  46. This dramatic rise in oil prices can be thought of as a negative productivity shock. Remember, we are measuring GDP by value added. When energy costs go up, value added goes down • This temporary drop in labor productivity caused a decrease in labor demand • A temporary shock creates a small income effect and, therefore, no change in labor supply. If the shock were more permanent, a rise in labor supply would push the real wage even lower

  47. Real Compensation (1972 – 1982) % Deviation From Trend 1979 Iranian Revolution 1973 Arab Oil Embargo

  48. Employment (1972 – 1982) % Deviation From Trend 1973 Arab Oil Embargo 1979 Iranian Revolution

  49. % Deviation From Trend 1979 Iranian Revolution 1973 Arab Oil Embargo GDP (1972 – 1982)

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