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Variability of Stream Flow Response to Climate Change Scenarios in Colorado

Variability of Stream Flow Response to Climate Change Scenarios in Colorado. Lauren Hay U.S. Geological Survey, National Research Program lhay@usgs.gov Andrew Bock U.S. Geological Survey, Colorado Water Science Center abock@usgs.gov Greg McCabe

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Variability of Stream Flow Response to Climate Change Scenarios in Colorado

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  1. Variability of Stream Flow Response to Climate Change Scenarios in Colorado Lauren Hay U.S. Geological Survey, National Research Program lhay@usgs.gov Andrew Bock U.S. Geological Survey, Colorado Water Science Center abock@usgs.gov Greg McCabe U.S. Geological Survey, National Research Program gmccabe@usgs.gov Dwight Atkinson EPA Office of Water Atkinson.Dwight@epa.gov

  2. BACKGROUND • Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM) • Geospatial Fabric (GF) • Geo Data Portal (GDP) • RESULTS

  3. Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM)

  4. Geospatial Fabric (GF) National “Geospatial Fabric” provides a consistent spatial context for any study, model application, data collection, etc.  Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) for the US • GIS dataset of hydrologic modeling features • Sets of parameter tables • Methodology and software for derivation • Information architecture

  5. Geospatial Fabric (GF) Aggregate NHDPlus catchments based on Points of Interest (POIs) to make Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs)

  6. NHDPlus V2 Catchments

  7. Geospatial Fabric (GF) Points of Interest (POI) • Aggregate NHDPlus features based on POIs to define Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) • POIs: • Gages II USGS Reference/non Ref. Gages • SPARROW (USGS modeling tool for the regional interpretation of water-quality monitoring data) • National Weather Service River Forecast Centers • Major confluences and waterbody inlets/outlets • Travel time points (< 1 day) • Elevation bands (500m)

  8. NHDPlus: Regions & Production Units HRUs Upper Missouri River Basin Region 10U Upper Missouri River Basin Region 10U

  9. NHDPlus V2 Catchments HRUs Upper Missouri River Basin Region 10U

  10. NHDPlus versus Geospatial Fabric 234,752 NHDPlus catchments  10,299 HRUs in the U. Missouri

  11. Geo Data Portal (GDP) Portal (website) that allows users an easy way to obtain climate data for model forcing and evaluation Nathaniel L. Booth,Tom Kunicki, Ivan Suftin , Dave Blodgett, Jordan Walker (CIDA)

  12. Geo Data Portal (GDP) Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) Shape File Best Available Data GDP HRU summary Mapped to model format

  13. What happened behind the scenes? Geo Data Portal (GDP) Statistical summaries of gridded output by basin subunits (HRUs) Gridded output

  14. http://cida.usgs.gov/climate/gdp/

  15. Gridded Climate Based on Station Data

  16. Gridded Climate Based on Downscaled GCMs  Test statistical and Dynamical Downscaling Table from Hostetler and others (2011)

  17. Gridded Climate Based on Downscaled GCMs SRES -- Special Report on Emissions Scenarios AR4 -- Fourth Assessment Report

  18. Gridded Climate Based on Dynamically Downscaled GCM Climate * A2 emission scenario

  19. Gridded Climate Based on Statistically Downscaled GCM Climate 1 A1B emission scenario 2 A2 emission scenario

  20. Climate Data: • Station Based • PRISM • DayMET • GSD • Dynamically Downscaled • NCEP-NCAR • GFDL (A2) • ECHAM5 (A2) • GENMON (A2) • Statistically Downscaled • ARRM • CGCM3_T47 (A2, A1B) • CGCM3_T63 (A2, A1B) • CNRM (A2, A1B) • MIUB (A1B) • ECHO (A2) • GFDL (A2) • BCSD • CGCM3 (A2, A1B) • CNRM (A2,A1B) • GFDL (A2, A1B) • MIROC (A2, A1B) • MIUB (A2,A1B) • MRI (A2, A1B) • ECHAM5 (A2,A1B) 28 climate data sets

  21. Upper Missouri • HRUs • Gaged Basins (95)

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