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NextGen Observations Requirements

NextGen Observations Requirements. John J. Murray Aviation Applications Director Science Directorate, Chemistry and Dynamics Branch NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA John.J.Murray@nasa.gov. MPAR WG Meeting 2008-01 OFCM Silver Spring, MD January 29, 2008. 2025 NextGen Concept.

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NextGen Observations Requirements

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  1. NextGen Observations Requirements John J. Murray Aviation Applications Director Science Directorate, Chemistry and Dynamics Branch NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA John.J.Murray@nasa.gov MPAR WG Meeting 2008-01 OFCM Silver Spring, MD January 29, 2008

  2. 2025 NextGen Concept Operating Principles • “It’s about the users…” • System-wide transformation • Prognostic approach to safety assessment • Globally harmonized • Environmentally compatible to enable continued growth Key Capabilities • Net-Enabled Information Access • Performance-Based Services • Weather-Assimilated Decision Making • Layered, Adaptive Security • Broad-Area Precision Navigation • Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations • “Equivalent Visual” Operations • “Super Density” Operations

  3. Aviation Weather History, Current State and Future Concerns • Safety – has been the driving force behind aviation weather • 80’s and 90’s were renaissance era for advancing the state of the art in aviation weather from safety perspective • Dramatic decline in weather related aviation fatalities have resulted from • Improved detection and forecast of hazardous weather • Real-time broadcast of local conditions • Exploitation of satellite and NEXRAD imagery • Deployment of warning systems like LLWAS, TDWR • Better understanding of in-flight icing, how to predict it, and how to detect it • 80’s and 90’s also saw dramatic increases in summertime delays due to weather as air traffic levels rose pointing to deficiencies in the FAA’s aviation weather R&D and F&E portfolios and management structure • Bottom line: The NAS as a result of past aviation weather research and system development has become much safer, however there has not been a noticeable improvement in weather impacted capacity

  4. NextGen WeatherKey Themes • Direct integration of weather information into operational decision making processes • Reduced requirement for government provided weather “products” • Weather information sets become the government provided product in most cases • Opportunity for tailoring of private sector provided products significantly increase • Weather information is translated into operational decision options for human/automated systems • Standalone Weather “Systems” become obsolete

  5. Observation Virtual 4D Weather Cube(Single Authoritative ATM Weather Source) Hazard Virtual 4D Weather Cube 0 – 15 mins 4th dimension time Aviation weather information in 3 dimensions ( latitude/longitude/height) 15-60mins 1 – 24 hrs

  6. Primary Weather Constraints and Hazards(70% of all aviation system delays are due to weather) • Convection and Strong winter storms are the primary constraint on NAS efficiency.Turbulence is the primary cause of injuries to flight crews.In-flight icing is a major cause of GA fatalities.Ceiling and Visibility is the primary cause of GA fatalities (loss of situational awareness).

  7. Convective and Winter Weather

  8. Convective Weather: Living On the Edge

  9. Inception of CoSPA“Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation” 2006 Storm Prediction situation Multiple forecast systems Diverse capabilities Resolution, coverage, generation algorithms and display Uncoordinated leveraging ofFAA and NWS assets WARP has no forecast capability CoSPA • CoSPA (FY 2007 ) • Support NextGen goals • FAA-oriented • Enroute & Terminal • Winter & Summer • Fully automated • Network enabled • Standardized format and access • Common situational awareness Central Processing Publish & Subscribe

  10. CONUS Integrated Sensor Mosaics 1 km resolution, 2.5 min update Precip (VIL and Surface), Echo Tops, Growth/Decay Trends, Winter Precip Possible new: Turbulence, Ceiling and Visibility, Gust Fronts Animated Forecast Loops 0-2 hr (+ 2 hrs of past weather) 5 min interval; 5 min update rate; 1 km res 2-6 hr 15-60 min interval; 1 hr update rate; 3 km res Forecast Products (all 0- 6 hr) Deterministic Forecasts Precip, Echo Tops, etc Used in Summer and Winter Probabilistic Forecasts Convection, *Snow, Pilot-Weather Avoidance Fields, etc. Surface Fronts 15 min update rate Performance Results Coupling to TFM Decision Support Traffic Management System Route Availability Planning Tool CoSPA CapabilitiesCirca 2012 • Primary funding for CoSPA is from FAA Planning (Aviation Weather Research Program) • Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) is leveraging the efforts of CoSPA forecast improvements to support FAA Systems Operations • CIWS + CoSPA provide near-term FAA testbed for prototyping NextGen capabilities * Permits “snow – mix – rain” Winter Forecast

  11. Inflight Icing

  12. Turbulence

  13. Ceiling and Visibility

  14. Observations Requirements • Higher accuracy, frequency, and resolution tailored to the limits of predictability for tactical aviation weather information. • Much more detailed lower tropospheric observations of the atmosphere (not surface) • All-weather observations, i.e. measurements in and through clouds.

  15. Observations Requirements • Observational errors must be significantly lower than current forecast errors to be useful. For example, most mesonet data is not well-sited and does not meet the accuracy requirement. This will require detailed error/uncertainty information on each observation system for a range of relevant situations derived from engineering and technical information. A thorough understanding of observational errors is critical for automated integration of aviation observations as well as for data assimilation/optimization in numerical weather forecasting.

  16. Observations Requirements • Since forecasts will be dominated by conditions above surface more wind, temperature, and moisture observations above surface are needed. Current observations systems contain too much uncertainty even in the mid- and upper-troposphere. • Since NextGen faces global challenges, the observing system must include adequate measurements of conditions beyond CONUS for all phenomena that affect NextGen safety, efficiency and security.

  17. Observations Requirements • Forecast assets will inform the observing system on increasing threats and • uncertainty; in response, the observing system will increase operational tempo • by surging quantity and quality of information to regions requiring increased • monitoring resources. These surges in observing system data delivery will be • possible by building adaptive capacities. • Observing systems in NextGen must be increasingly adaptive.

  18. Observations Requirements • In a mature NextGen, the Integration request for information will dynamically • drive both the Observing and Forecasting components. Users seeking the “best” • route may seek additional info on employment of various routes and strategies. • These scenarios will automatically initial “special” model runs and give priority to • observation collection in the area and time window of concern. This is a major • paradigm shift in weather data delivery, moving from clock-based provisioning to • event/threat-based information provisioning. • The transition to event-based information provisioning has significant resource • impacts to all Weather Observation Components.

  19. Observations Requirements • A threshold observing capability to revisit regions of high interest and/or high • model sensitivity every 5 minutes, with an objective observing capability of 1 minute • is required. • Implement the turbulence detection algorithm for RADAR. • Ensure soonest possible deployment of adequate numbers of dual- • polarization RADAR.

  20. Observations Requirements • Dense airborne in-situ soundings of temperature, water vapor and winds • throughout the NextGen domain. • Improved ground-based remote sensing observations of severe weather and • wake vortex parameters especially in and near the terminal area.

  21. Observations Requirements • Specific enhancements expected by 2018 include enhanced application of the • existing NEXRAD radar network, with observations of low-level moisture patterns • from refractive index monitoring and the identification of microphysical properties • of hydrometeors from currently planned polarization upgrades. • In the years approaching 2025 we may begin to see the arrival of the first of a • new generation of weather radars, perhaps including rapid scan capabilities.

  22. Weather 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNCLASSIFIED DRAFT Full Integration of Weather Information into NextGen Operational Decisions NextGen Weather Decision Support Tools And Proactive Weather Decision Making NextGen Weather Information Initial Capability NextGen Weather Information Concepts Align Agency Policy and Resources Build Initial 4D Weather System Optimize/Integrate Manage/Enable • Identify, align, or eliminate duplicative weather research and acquisition programs (FAA,NASA,DOC,DOD) • Redirect existing research programs towards implementation of a national weather information collection and dissemination capability (FAA, NASA, DOC, DOD) • Stand up interagency program “4D” weather program office (FAA, DOC, DOD) • Revisit and update decades old weather operational policies (FAA) • Develop and implement weather information protocols and standards (FAA, DOC, DOD) • Design and Acquire 4D Weather Infrastructure (FAA, DOC, DOD) • Migrate legacy weather systems towards 4D CONOPS (FAA) • Develop and implement technologies to populate weather information system under “Single Authoritative Source” concept (FAA,DOC, DOD) • Weather Information sharing sources and products with decision tools are the core of a layered, risk-based operations approach (FAA, NASA) • Weather Event Information is well characterized & consistently passed across organizational / agency boundaries (FAA, NASA, DOC, DOD) • 4D trajectories are enabled and routinely updated through the use of integrated weather information (FAA,NASA) • Common situational awareness for all users of the NextGen System, promoting both improved system capacity and safety (FAA, DOC, DOD) • Streamlined weather information architecture reduces operations and maintenance costs for both government and users (FAA, DOC, DOD) • Direct integration of weather information and decision support tools ensure NextGen is supported by both NextGen relevant weather data and “weather savvy” decision support automation (FAA, NASA, DOD) • Informs decision makers of options, assists in the automated identification of potential decision risks, and poses suggested operational solutions along with projections of NextGen impacts (FAA, NASA, DOD) Direct & implement agency-wide policy, governance, standards and solutions for NextGen Weather Information Synchronize existing and planned future agency and industry efforts Transform operational system weather decision making processes Risk based decision making, supported by information sharing measures with continuous feedback loops DRAFT

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