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THE BRICS IN AFRICA: RECONFIGURATION OR RE-ESCALATION OF DEPENDENCY?

THE BRICS IN AFRICA: RECONFIGURATION OR RE-ESCALATION OF DEPENDENCY?. • Expansion of infrastructure, growth in BRICS’s manufacturing sectors and a greater demand for food led to an increase in commodity prices.

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THE BRICS IN AFRICA: RECONFIGURATION OR RE-ESCALATION OF DEPENDENCY?

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  1. THE BRICS IN AFRICA: RECONFIGURATION OR RE-ESCALATION OF DEPENDENCY?

  2. • Expansion of infrastructure, growth in BRICS’s manufacturing sectors and a greater demand for food led to an increase in commodity prices

  3. This boom in commodity prices lasted nearly 10 years and drove the “Africa Rising” narrative

  4. WHAT DID “AFRICA RISING” DO? • Prowess in manufacturing led to price competition in industrial goods - good for African consumers - bad for African manufacturers • Share of manufacturing in Africa’s GDP - 15% in 1990  now 10%

  5. The African Transformation Report looks at “ACET 15” (Senegal, Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda, Cameroon, Zambia, Botswana, South Africa, Mozambique, and Mauritius) • These countries comprise (of SSA): • 70% of SSA population • 76% of GDP • 85% of manufacturing value added • 80% of exports • Plus “Early Transformers” (Brazil, Chile, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam)

  6. DIVERSIFYING DEPENDENCY? • Oil-exporting countries have grown > 300% faster than non-oil exporting countries Average index of export diversification in SSA is 2.2 (0 = perfectly low; 100 = perfectly high) • Exports to the 3 large emerging markets (Brazil, China, and India) were dominated by natural resources, particularly oil = 70% of all African exports to the three countries

  7. And when the party’s over……? PRICE INDICES IN REAL 2010 US$

  8. World Bank scenarios for African growth assuming slowdown in BRICS (with average per capita growth rate at 2.3% between 2015-25)

  9. Questions?

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