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Short-term Travel Time Prediction with Neural Network Models

Short-term Travel Time Prediction with Neural Network Models. ECE 539 Term Project. Wonjae Jang Civil & Environmental Engineering. Project Description. Application of ANN to predict travel time 1-5 time periods ahead for one roadway segment on Beltline highway (3-15 minutes prediction).

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Short-term Travel Time Prediction with Neural Network Models

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  1. Short-term Travel Time Prediction with Neural Network Models ECE 539 Term Project Wonjae Jang Civil & Environmental Engineering

  2. Project Description • Application of ANN to predict travel time 1-5 time periods ahead for one roadway segment on Beltline highway (3-15 minutes prediction) • Simulation of traffic condition using CORSIM • Comparing results from several models run

  3. Background • Traffic Control • Induce Traffic divergence • Ramp metering • Advance Traveler Information System (Route Guidance System) • Need to predict travel time several time steps ahead • Data Availability • Surveillance systems (CCTV, detector) • Other technologies

  4. Existing Approaches • Use Historical Data • Use Real Time Data • Historical + Real Time (aH(h,t)+(1-a)Rt(t-1)) • ARIMA • Kalman Filtering • ANN

  5. MLP – Back Propagation algorithm was used ANN I Use Lu(t-1), Lt(t-1), Ld(t-1) as input ANN II Use Lu(t-5),…, Lu(t-1), Lt(t-5),…, Lt(t-1), Ld(t-5),…, Ld(t-1) as input ANN III Use L1(t-1), L2(t-1),…, Ln(t-1), Lu(t-1), Lt(t-1), Ld(t-1) w/wo R1(t-1), R2(t-1),…, Rn(t-1) u t d ANN Applied 1 … n u t d 1 n

  6. Results

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