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Allstate/ National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll

Allstate/ National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll. This is the seventh quarterly installment of Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Polls conducted by Ed Reilly and Brent McGoldrick of FD The survey fielded between November 30 – December 1, 2010 among:

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Allstate/ National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll

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  1. Allstate/National JournalHeartland Monitor Poll

  2. This is the seventh quarterly installment of Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Polls conducted by Ed Reilly and Brent McGoldrick of FD The survey fielded between November 30 – December 1, 2010 among: A nationally representative telephone sample of 1200 adults, aged 18 and older. Margin of error +/- 2.8% Methodology

  3. The Mood of the Country & The Political Environment

  4. For consumers, it feels like 1975 and 1992. Historical Points Winter 1975 Spring 1992 Source: The Conference Board – Consumer Research Center CCI Figures 4

  5. Americans are more pessimistic about their financial prospects for 2011 than they were heading into 2010. January 2010 December 2010 Thinking ahead to 2011, do you expect that your personal financial situation will…

  6. A solid majority of Americans continues to believe the country is headed down the “Wrong Track.” Right Direction Wrong Track And, to start with, do you feel that THE COUNTRY, in general, is headed in the right direction, or do you think things are seriously off on the wrong track? (APRIL 09: N=602, Margin of Error =+/-4%) (JULY 09: N=1202, Margin of Error =+/-2.8%) (SEPTEMBER 09: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (JANUARY 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (APRIL 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (August 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (December 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) 6

  7. When it comes to their rating of President Obama’s job performance, Americans are evenly split. Approve Disapprove And, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? APRIL 09: N=602, Margin of Error =+/-4%) (JULY 09:N=1202, Margin of Error =+/-2.8%) (SEPTEMBER 09: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (JANUARY 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (APRIL 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (August 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (December 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) 7

  8. Most Americans do not believe President Obama’s policies have created more opportunity for them, individually. Increase Opportunity for People Like Me to Get Ahead Decrease Opportunity for People Like Me to Get Ahead Have No Impact In general, do you think that the actions being taken by the Obama Administration will… (JULY 09: N=1202, Margin of Error =+/-2.8%) (SEPTEMBER 09: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (JANUARY 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (APRIL 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (August 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (December 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%)

  9. President Obama remains slightly more trusted on the economy than Republicans. President Obama Republicans in Congress Neither • And, in general, who do you trust more to develop solutions to the country’s economic challenges… • APRIL 09: N=602, Margin of Error =+/-4%) (JULY 09:N=1202, Margin of Error =+/-2.8%) (SEPTEMBER 09: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (JANUARY 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (APRIL 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (August 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (December 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) 9

  10. Few think Obama’s policies have made the country better off, but many Americans maintain a positive outlook. Significantly Better Off Moving in the Right Direction Significantly Worse Off • Thinking back over the policies that President Obama has pursued during his Presidency, would you say that the country is… (JANUARY 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (APRIL 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (August 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) (December 10: N=1200, Margin of Error = +/-2.8%) 10

  11. Americans are increasingly worried about opportunities for the next generation. July 2010 December 2010 And, thinking ahead to when today’s children are your age, do you think they will have…

  12. America’s International Competitiveness

  13. By a wide margin, Americans say China is the world’s strongest economy today. Looking ahead 20 years, they see U.S. & China at parity. 21% of Americans think the US economy will be in 20 years, but isn’t today. This sentiment is more prominent in those without a college degree and also those who are currently looking for work. Today’s Strongest Economy Future Strongest Economy • And which ONE of the following countries or regions do you think has the strongest economy in the world today? And, from that same list, which ONE do you think will have the strongest economy in the world 20 years from today? 13

  14. On key economic “ingredients”, Americans perceive the U.S. to be ahead of most major economies, especially colleges & universities and science and research. -Younger generations are more likely to believe that the quality of Colleges and Universities (80%) as well as Science and Research (79%) rank ahead of the other listed countries. -Respondents making $100,000 and above believe the quality of the U.S. business leaders ranks ahead of other listed countries (70%) on a greater margin than the total population. Margin 52% 38% 25% 17% 10% 3% -10% Now I’d like to read you a list of several aspects of the U.S. economy and ask you to tell me where you think the U.S. ranks, compared to the list of countries we just discussed. For each aspect I read, please tell me whether you think the U.S. ranks… 14

  15. Drivers of Economic Growth & Manufacturing

  16. Energy and Healthcare are seen as the biggest drivers of economic growth, with manufacturing among the most important industries. 92% 85% 84% 79% 80% 76% 67% 65% 63% 49% 48% 42% 22% Now I’d like to read you a list of industries. After I read each one, please tell me how important you think this industry is to creating economic growth in the U.S. over the next 5-10 years?

  17. While Americans are split on the current state of the manufacturing industry, there is clear hope for future growth. When it comes to creating the manufacturing industries of the 21st century, compared to countries such as The European Union, Russia, China, Japan and India, is the U.S… Overall, are you optimistic or pessimistic that the U.S. can successfully grow its manufacturing industry to remain the international leader in manufacturing? 17

  18. Americans are most willing to trade more government involvement for a competitive advanced manufacturing sector. Traditional partisan attitudes about trade do not necessarily apply. Many Republicans support government action to support manufacturing and they do not favor a “hands off” approach. • I’d now like to read you a few statements that some people have made about American manufacturing. After I read each one, please tell me if you agree or disagree with this statement. 18

  19. Globalization & International Trade

  20. Outsourcing is the prime suspect in the loss of American manufacturing jobs. Frustration over the loss of these jobs is fueling Americans’ desire for cooperation on job creation. As you may know, according to the United Nations Statistical Division, the U.S. still leads the world in manufacturing, generating just over $1.8 trillion in economic output. However, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the share of Americans who work in service-related jobs has been growing for decades and is now five times greater than those who work in manufacturing-related jobs. At the same time, the percentage of American workers employed in the manufacturing sector has decreased significantly over the past 30 years. Which ONE of the following do you think is the principal reason for this decline? 20

  21. Concern over job outsourcing is primarily concentrated among those looking to enter the job market. Concern Over Job Outsourcing Percent Worried “A lot” or “Some” • How much do you worry that your employer could decide to relocate your job overseas to someone else in another country? 21

  22. Just 21% prefer the U.S. take an “open market” approach to the international economy. Support of “protectionism” continues to be more pronounced among Republicans with 42% supporting policies that inhibit foreign trade and investment. • I would now like to read you three opinions on how government might handle American economic policy as it relates to the global economy. Please tell me which one comes closest to your opinion… 22

  23. Views on globalization and the impact of an inter-connected world economy are mixed. Pro Globalization Anti Globalization • Now I am going to read you two statements about international trade. After I read them, please tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view? • Which comes closer to your view… the development of better paying jobs in other countries is… • If you had to choose would you prefer… • When it comes to LEGAL immigration of skilled workers in fields like science and technology, do you think that the U.S… 23

  24. The 2011 Washington Agenda

  25. Americans are split on who should take the lead on the major issues facing the country. • As you may know, Republicans won majority control of The House of Representatives in the November elections. Moving forward, who would you like to see take the lead on the major issues facing the country? 25

  26. The new Congress is expected to compromise with the Administration to get things done. • Would you prefer that Republicans in Congress… 26

  27. Half of Americans prefer policies that deal directly with job creation. Priorities that should be Addressed by Elected Officials 50% And which do you think should be the top priority you would like to see addressed by your elected officials in Washington, D.C.? 27

  28. January 2009

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