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Comparing National GHG Inventories with Independent Estimates Including Inverse Monitoring

Comparing National GHG Inventories with Independent Estimates Including Inverse Monitoring. Peter Bergamaschi, Frank Dentener, Adrian Leip, Frank Raes ,. European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. VERIFICATION. 1. IPCC Good Practice Guidance, 2000 (Annex 2)

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Comparing National GHG Inventories with Independent Estimates Including Inverse Monitoring

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  1. Comparing National GHG Inventories with Independent Estimates Including Inverse Monitoring Peter Bergamaschi, Frank Dentener, Adrian Leip, Frank Raes, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy

  2. VERIFICATION 1 • IPCC Good Practice Guidance, 2000 (Annex 2) International verification of inventories may include: • Comparison with international or independently compiled activity data, emission factors, etc. (BOTTOM-UP) • Comparison with atmosheric measurements at local, regional and global scales (TOP-DOWN, Inverse Modelling) 2 • 2006 Guidelines, chapter on cross-cutting issues (in preparation) • 2006 Guidelines will not be extremely different from GPG 2000 • GPG LULUCF is considered a further development and improvement

  3. 1 N2O emissions from soils in Europe • Soil data • ESB (European Soil Bureau), IES JRC • 1:1,000,000 • Italy 1:250k SOC • Land cover • CORINE • Meteo • MARS unit (monitoring Agriculture with remote sensing) • Atmospheric N deposition: • EMEP - • Crop Data • Eurostat (Farm Structure Survey) • Disaggregated to lower level • ISTAT crop data NUTS level 3 • (Nomenclature of territorial Units for statistics) • Fertiliser application • International Fertiliser Industry Association (IFA)

  4. 1. Harmonized European-wide Geographical Database 2. Process Based Model DNDC 4. Climate Change Scenario Analysis Policy Support 3. Results in a GIS N2O emissions from soils in Europe

  5. N2O direct emissions from soils in Europe Corn Durum wheat Oats Rapeseed + Rice W Wheat Gg N2O/yr 1997

  6. 2 a priori inventory Inverse modelling of CH4 emissions meteo "big-region" inversion CH4 observations transport model CH4 emissions

  7. CH4 monitoring stations

  8. a priori CH4 emissions - IIASA

  9. CH4 emissions: a posteriori - a priori

  10. a priori / a posteriori emissions 2.40 4.04 3.62 3.95 2.20 2.19 3.39 4.19

  11. Conclusions: CH4 Inverse Modelling • IM gives emissions consistent with atmospheric concentrations! • IM suggests higher CH4 emissions (year 2001) for some major EU-15 emitters compared to UNFCCC values (EU NIR 2003): • Germany +65 % • France + 46 % • UK +91% • EU NIR 2004: Revision of German emission: • lower CH4 emissions from Finland (wetlands) • EU-15 totals close to UNFCCC (10-30 %), but …

  12. General Conclusions: Verification • BOTTOM-UP and TOP-DOWN Verification is feasible, and in some cases gives results that are robust and can be compared with official NIR’s • Verification is swhown to: • - provide inputs to improve inventories • - build confidence in emissions estimates • and trends • - help to improve scientific understanding • related to emission inventories • (IPCC GPG 2000)

  13. CH4 measurements in Schauinsland

  14. further European stations complete set of stations ftp://ftp.ei.jrc.it/pub/bergamas/CH4BR/

  15. top-down vs. bottom up (EU NIR 2003)

  16. top-down vs. bottom up (EU NIR 2004)

  17. atmospheric transport model TM5 • offline atmospheric transport model • meteo from ECMWF • global simulation 6o x 4o • zooming 1o x 1o (Europe, …) • http://www.phys.uu.nl/~tm5/

  18. CH4 emission distribution - a posteriori

  19. Inverse modelling of CH4 emissions "big-region" inversion In situ measurements Bottom-up inventories meteo satellite measurements 4D VAR data assimilation CH4 observations Inverse model CH4 emissions

  20. Global and European regions

  21. EU NIR 2004revision of German CH4 inventory • 2.40 to 4.04 Tg CH4/yr (year 2001); revision of whole time series • manure management (0.21 -> 1.31 Tg CH4/yr), mainly due to increased CH4 conversion factors from liquid manure management systems • consideration of manure management systems by district • incorporation of smaller Bundeslaender, which in previous reports had not been included

  22. Forward simulation for Pallas (2002) a priori emission inventory (3 Tg CH4/ yr from Finnish wetlands) yields much too high CH4 mixing ratios during summer

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