Mexican Americans/Latinos and National Elections

1. Mexican Americans/Latinos and National Elections Mexican Americans and Politics Lecture 13 February 21, 2006

2. Essay 2 Mexican Americans have not yet seen political power commensurate with their numbers. In an essay, asses what factors explain this gap in the contemporary era (the period since the extension of the VRA to Mexican Americans and other Latinos in 1975). What resources do Mexican American communities have at their disposal today to overcome the factors that you identify as reducing their political influence?

3. Latino Electoral Participation, 1976- 2004

4. Latino Share of the Total Vote, 1976-2004

5. Popular Perception of the Importance of Latino Votes • 2000 and 2004—Both major party candidates sought Latino votes • Karl Rove asserted that Republicans needed 40 percent of 2004 Latino votes to ensure Bush reelection • Why?—empowering influences • Population growth • Population concentration • The “expectations game” • Partisanship / partisan loyalty

6. But, Latinos Rarely Shape Electoral Outcomes • Most dramatic examples • 1988-2004—only one state’s presidential vote changed by change in the Latino vote • 2001 mayoral races in New York, Los Angeles, and Houston • 2003 California recall race • Why?—dampening influences • Non-U.S. citizenship • Demographics—age, income, education • Low competition for seats in Latino areas

7. Story Not All Negative • Incremental growth means steadily increasing importance in close races • Villaraigosa victory in Los Angeles • A topic for Thursday • Next generation of possible national candidates • Bill Richardson • Antonio Villaraigosa • ?

8. How Can Latino Influence Increase? • Controlled by Latino communities • Community unity • An agenda of community needs and issues • Out of their control • Close races • Latino candidates • Party and candidate outreach • Mobilization • Voting not automatic • It helps when someone asks

9. Latinos and Presidential Elections Gap between rhetoric and reality most evident Change, if it is to occur, most likely to be seen at the local level

10. 2000 and 2004 Elections in Retrospect • A new dynamic—Republican competition for Mexican American votes • Anticipating future electoral growth vs. the “ricochet pander” • Symbolic outreach, little substantive outreach • Candidates never spoke to Latino concerns or placed Latinos in senior positions in their campaigns • Latino turnout remained low • Competitive states mostly not Latino states • Little Latino-driven mobilization • Few competitive local elections in Latino areas

11. Are Republicans Making Inroad Among Mexican Americans? • Story mostly focuses on presidential politics • Some targeted Republican outreach to specific constituencies, e.g. fundamentalist churches, some outreach to the newly naturalized • But, little change in registration patterns • Little change in Republican share of Mexican American registered voters since 1980s • Long-term question among Mexican Americans who have weak connections to larger community • 2004 may signal a change in “national” presidential politics

12. National Exit Poll Reported 41-43% Latino Support for Bush • Up from 29-38% support in 2000 • Ranges in both years indicate problems with exit polling of Latinos • Did Bush gain in 2004? • Did he gain as much as the poll suggests?

13. For Next Time • Why didn’t the Bustamante candidacy excite the Mexican American electorate? • Why didn’t Bustamante win? • What changes would have had had to occur for him to win?