1 / 22

Betriebswirtschaftliche Bewertungsmethoden Topic 3 Risk, Return, and The CAPM

Betriebswirtschaftliche Bewertungsmethoden Topic 3 Risk, Return, and The CAPM Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance. Topics Covered. Who knows ???. Expected Returns. Decisions must be based on expected returns. Methods used to estimate expected return. Historical approach.

sylvester-haynes
Download Presentation

Betriebswirtschaftliche Bewertungsmethoden Topic 3 Risk, Return, and The CAPM

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Betriebswirtschaftliche Bewertungsmethoden Topic 3 Risk, Return, and The CAPM Prof. Dr.Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance

  2. Topics Covered • Who knows ???

  3. Expected Returns Decisions must be based on expected returns Methods used to estimate expected return Historical approach Probabilistic approach Risk-based approach

  4. Using 1900-2003 annual returns, the average risk premium for U.S. stocks relative to Treasury bills is 7.6%. Treasury bills currently offer a 2% yield to maturity Expected return on U.S. stocks: 7.6% + 2% = 9.6% Historical ApproachExpected Returns Assume that distribution of expected returns will be similar to historical distribution of returns. Can historical approach be used to estimate the expected return of an individual stock?

  5. Historical Approach Expected Returns Assume General Motors long-run average return is 17.0%. Treasury bills average return over same period was 4.1% GM historical risk premium: 17.0% - 4.1% = 12.9% GM expected return = Current Tbill rate + GM historical risk premium = 2% + 12.9% = 14.9% May reflect GM’s past more than its future Limitations of historical approach for individual stocks Many stocks have a long history to forecast expected return

  6. Outcome Probability GM Return Recession 20% -30% Expansion 70% 15% Boom 10% 55% Probabilistic Approach Expected Returns Identify all possible outcomes of returns and assign a probability to each possible outcome: For example, assign probabilities for possible states of economy: boom, expansion, recession and project the returns of GM stock for the three states GM Expected Return = 0.20(-30%) + 0.70(15%) +0.10(55%) = 10%

  7. Risk-Based Approach Expected Returns 1. Measure the risk of the asset 2. Use the risk measure to estimate the expected return 1. Measure the risk of the asset • Systematic risks simultaneously affect many different assets • Investors can diversify away the unsystematic risk • Market rewards only the systematic risk: only systematic risk should be related to the expected return How can we capture the systematic risk component of a stock’s volatility?

  8. Risk-Based Approach Expected Returns • Collect data on a stock’s returns and returns on a market index • Plot the points on a scatter plot graph • Y–axis measures stock’s return • X-axis measures market’s return • Plot a line (using linear regression) throughthe points Slope of line equals beta, the sensitivity of a stock’s returns relative to changes in overall market returns Beta is a measure of systematic risk for a particular security.

  9. Scatter Plot for Returns on Sharper Image and S&P 500 Sharper Image weekly returns S&P 500 weekly returns

  10. ConAgra weekly returns S&P 500 weekly returns Scatter Plot for Returns ConAgra and S&P 500

  11. Risk-Based Approach Expected Returns 2. Use the risk measure to estimate the expected return: • Plot beta against expected return for two assets: • A risk-free asset that pays 4% with certainty, with zero systematic risk and • An “average stock”, with beta equal to 1, with an expected return of 10%. • Draw a straight line connecting the two points. • Investors holding a stock with beta of 0.5 or 1.5, for example, can find the expected return on the line. Beta measures systematic risk and links the risk and expected return of an asset.

  12. Expected returns • 18% • 14% • ß = 1.5 • • 10% “average” stock • 4% Risk-free asset • • • • • • • • • • 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 Beta Risk and Expected Returns What is the expected return for stock with beta = 1.5 ?

  13. Portfolio Expected Returns How does the expected return of a portfolio relate to the expected returns of the securities in the portfolio? Expected return of a portfolio with N securities The portfolio expected return equals the weighted average of the portfolio assets’ expected returns E(Rp) = w1E(R1)+ w2E(R2)+…+wnE(Rn) • w1, w2 , … , wn : portfolio weights • E(R1), E(R2), …, E(RN): expected returns of securities

  14. Portfolio Expected Returns E (Rp) = w1 E (R1)+ w2 E (R2)+…+wn E (Rn) E (Rp) = (0.125) (10%) + (0.25) (12%) + (0.125) (8%) + (0.5) (14%) = 12.25%

  15. Portfolio Risk Portfolio risk is the weighted average of systematic risk (beta) of the portfolio constituent securities. ß P = (0.125) (1.00) + (0.25) (1.33) + (0.125) (0.67) + (0.50) (1.67) = 1.38 But portfolio volatility is not the same as the weighted average of all portfolio security volatilities

  16. Portfolio composed of the following two assets: • An asset that pays a risk-free return Rf, , and • A market portfolio that contains some of every risky asset in the market. Security Market Line Security market line: The line connecting the risk-free asset and the market portfolio

  17. E (Ri) = Rf + ß [E (Rm) – Rf] • Return for bearing no market risk • Portfolio’s exposure to market risk • Reward for bearing market risk Security Market Line and CAPM The two-asset portfolio lies on security market line Given two points (risk-free asset and market portfolio asset) on the security market line, the equation of the line: The equation represents the risk and return relationship predicted by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

  18. The Security Market Line Plots relationship between expected return and betas • In equilibrium, all assets lie on this line. • If individual stock or portfolio lies above the line: • Expected return is too high. • Investors bid up price until expected return falls. • If individual stock or portfolio lies below SML: • Expected return is too low. • Investors sell stock driving down price until expected return rises.

  19. E(RP) SML A - Undervalued • • A Slope = E(Rm) - RF = MarketRisk Premium RM • • B • • RF B - Overvalued •  =1.0 i The Security Market Line

  20. Efficient Markets Efficient market hypothesis (EMH): in an efficient market, prices rapidly incorporate all relevant information Financial markets much larger, more competitive, more transparent, more homogeneous than product markets Much harder to create value through financial activities Changes in asset price respond only to new information. This implies that asset prices move almost randomly.

  21. Efficient Markets If asset prices unpredictable, then what is the use of CAPM? CAPM gives analyst a model to measure the systematic risk of any asset. On average, assets with high systematic risk should earn higher returns than assets with low systematic risk. CAPM offers a way to compare risk and return on investments alternatives.

  22. Decisions should be made based on expected returns. • Expected returns can be estimated using historical, probabilistic, or risk approaches. • Portfolio expected return/beta equals weighted average of the expected returns/beta of theassets in the portfolio. • CAPM predicts that the expected return on a stock depends on the stock’s beta, the risk-free rate and the market premium. Risk, Return, and CAPM

More Related