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Dr Neville Crossman CSIRO Land and Water

Lower Murray Landscape Futures – Dryland Areas Evaluating current NRM targets with policy options and scenario analyses. Dr Neville Crossman CSIRO Land and Water. Project Aims. The Lower Murray Landscape Futures Project

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Dr Neville Crossman CSIRO Land and Water

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  1. Lower Murray Landscape Futures – Dryland AreasEvaluating current NRM targets with policy options and scenario analyses Dr Neville Crossman CSIRO Land and Water

  2. Project Aims • The Lower Murray Landscape Futures Project • A tri-catchment, multi state collaborative research project which aims to: • Analyse the impact of existing regional NRM plans and investment strategies on natural resources, with consideration given to community well-being (social, economic and environmental outcomes), and; • Explore future options and scenarios for the Lower Murray in partnership with stakeholders in the region. • Project has 2 core components: • River Corridor • Dryland CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component

  3. Analysis of NRM Plans and Landscape Futures CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component

  4. Regional Plans & Targets • Reviewed 15 relevant Regional Plans and Investment Strategies • Targets: • 173 Aspirational Targets • 252 Resource Condition Targets • 1252 Management Action Targets • 3 key environmental objectives relevant to dryland agricultural areas: • Biodiversity • Deep Drainage and River Salinity • Wind Erosion + Climate Change CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component

  5. Policy Options for Achieving Targets • Six policy options for reaching regional targets including: • Go Anywhere – actions located at random • Cheapest – actions located in areas of lowest economic cost • Best for Biodiversity – actions located in areas with greatest biodiversity benefit • Best for NRM - actions located in areas with greatest overall benefit for biodiversity, deep drainage, wind erosion, climate change • Most Cost Effective - actions located in areas with greatest overall benefit and cheapest cost • With a sixth special case policy option: • Sustainability Ideal – as for Most Cost Effectivebut with a new target set aimed at long termsustainability CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component

  6. S0 – Baseline * Climate – current (historical mean) Carbon trading – none Biomass – no market Biofuels – no market S1 – Mild Warming/Drying Climate – 1oC warming, 5% drying Carbon trading – $15/tonne CO2e Biomass – $50/tonne Biofuels – %150 current price (wheat/canola) S2 – Moderate Warming/Drying Climate – 2oC warming, 15% drying Carbon trading – $7/tonne CO2e Biomass – $40/tonne Biofuels – %130 current price (wheat/canola) S3 – Severe Warming/Drying Climate – 4oC warming, 25% drying Carbon trading – $2/tonne CO2e Biomass – $30/tonne Biofuels – %110 current price (wheat/canola) S4 – Mild Warming/Wetting Climate – 1oC warming, 5% wetting Carbon trading – $15/tonne CO2e Biomass – $50/tonne Biofuels – %150 current price (wheat/canola) Alternative Future Scenarios CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component

  7. Natural Resource Management Actions • Six on-ground NRM actions considered: • Areas of Remnant Native Vegetation • Remnant vegetation management (stock exclusion, weed control etc.) • Cleared Agricultural Areas • Ecological restoration (local native species/communities) • Conservation farming (stubble retention, minimum tillage) • Deep-rooted perennials (fodder crops – lucerne, saltbush) • Biomass (Eucalyptus plantations for renewable energy, oil, activated carbon) • Biofuels (wheat/canola rotation for ethanol, biodiesel production) • The spatial distribution of NRM actions in the landscape is a landscape future • Landscape futures have associated impacts:environmental, economic, and social CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component

  8. NRM Actions for Environmental Benefits CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component

  9. Research Structure and Methods CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component

  10. Analysis of Regional Plans CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component

  11. SAMDB NRM Board – S0 Baseline Biodiversity • Improve condition of 50% of vegetation on private land • Protect and enhance 10,000ha of vegetation • 50% of 6 specific threatened communities protected • Increase area of priority vegetation protected to >2,000ha Biodiversity • Increase cover by 1% in agricultural region • Re-establish 950ha of vegetation to provide links in priority areas Wind Erosion • 40% reduction in agricultural land at risk of wind erosion in each June • Increased trend in soil carbon levels in cropping soils Deep Drainage & River Salinity • Establish 25,000ha of perennial vegetation • Maintain salinity of River Murray below 800EC at Morgan 95% of the time Remnant Vegetation Cleared Agricultural Land CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component

  12. Environmental and Economic Indicators CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component

  13. Landscape Futures Analyses CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component

  14. Landscape Futures • S0 – Baseline • S1 – Mild Warming/Drying • S2 – Moderate Warming/Drying • S3 – Severe Warming/Drying • S4 – Mild Warming/Wetting CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component

  15. Biophysical and Economic Impacts and Trade-Offs CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component

  16. Socio-EconomicImpacts Flow-on Effects Direct Effects • Input-Output & Demographic Analysis • Indicators include: • Contribution to Gross Regional Product • Employment • Household income • Population Migration CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component

  17. Key Messages So Far… • Regarding regional NRM plans, some targets are: • Very expensive to achieve (e.g. By 2020… increase vegetation cover by 1% in the agricultural region) • Impossible to achieve (e.g. Reduce recharge by improving dryland water use efficiency by 70% across the region by 2020). • Already achieved (e.g. By 2020 to have constrained the area of salt affected land within the region to 120,000 ha). • Too vaguely specified to address • Difficult to monitor or assess • Unlikely to achieve aspirational sustainability targets • Regional planning for NRM should: • Be founded in landscape scale biophysical science, economics, and social science • Establish quantitative and evidence-based targets likely to achieve long-term sustainability • Be spatially explicit and use rich spatio-temporal information • Utilise concepts of risk, cost, benefit, and priority-setting • Use decision theory and multiple criteria planning principles • Understand and be robust to uncertainty • Be forward thinking and anticipate future change, surprises, shocks CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component

  18. Key Messages So Far... • Analysis of landscape futures: • The location and type of actions profoundly affects the costs and benefits of achieving targets • Smart spatial prioritisation of investment can capitalise on multiple benefits and economic returns of NRM actions • Policy choices are at least as influential on landscape futures as external drivers (climate change, technology, commodity prices) • Widespread adoption of NRM actions can have a strong effect on the regional economy and population • Achieving targets is costly but economic drivers can dramatically decrease the cost of achieving regional targets • New industries such as biomass, biofuels, & carbon trading may be economically viable in some areas and can contribute significantly to regional targets • Carbon trading and biomass production may offer more resilient production systems than traditional agriculture CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component

  19. Conclusion • Natural resource management: • Is expensive and difficult to motivate on a large scale • Regional plans direct regional investment in NRM actions • Potential to have long-lasting impacts on regional environment, economy, and society • Often, the impacts of widespread NRM actions are unknown • Analysis of landscape futures enables: • Informed, evidence-based evaluation of regional planning • Quantification of triple-bottom-line impacts of targets • Spatial targeting of NRM actions • Ex-ante (“beforehand”)policy analysis • Estimation of future impacts of external climate and market drivers • Comparison of trade-offs • Remaining challenges for the LMLF Project • Communication, adoption, and impact CSIRO LMLF – Dryland Component

  20. Water for a Healthy Country Land Technologies Alliance: DWLBC (SA) DPI Victoria + PIRVic CSIRO Land and Water University of Adelaide SARDI Regional NRM Stakeholders: SA MDB NRM Group (SA) Mallee CMA (Vic) Wimmera CMA (Vic) Lower Murray-Darling CMA (NSW) Murray-Darling Basin Commission Lower Murray Tri-State NRM Forum CSIRO Land and Water Dr Neville Crossman Research Scientist Phone: +61 8 8303 8663 Email: neville.crossman@csiro.au Web: www.clw.csiro.au Thank you Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176Email: Enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au

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